Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
I like that view this is part of a 3 year plus plan. I would however like to see more volatility in the upward direction to show the share is capable of hitting new highs rather than lows. I want to see more evidential capability of execution particularly in turnarounds
So As expected set the bar low to outperform later on. $15-16 operating cost per boe there is good margin in the hedge that is certain for the next 2 to 3 years. Maintenance / turnaround how much more still needs to be done? They need to get better here to keep production flowing. I like the headline of 100 million of free cash flow a month. They don’t have a trading arm so not surprised about the forward paper hedged contracts. Overall a solid company, new production that comes on line or acquisition be good if they didn’t hedge that volume of production as offers significant upside to outperform from current baseline
A few reasons why this is my view is a good stock:
- favorable tax breaks
- low cost of extraction
- rising oil price
- good team (note lots of shell and bp non-execs, I rate Simon Henry former CFO to Peter Voser at Shell)
- good relations with other IECs
- very strong private equity house backing (although concern we will get played)
- opportunity for synergies
- chrysalor is a good outfit that bought PMO
- less likelihood of lockdowns and companies more prepared to operate in new world
- value of oil in the ground should go up on balance sheet but expect it to remain recorded the same
- strategic importance to up supply
A few downsides - ESG credentials / unfavorable stock due to nature of business.
Hope for a dividend announcement
https://eigpartners.com/eig-signs-12-4-billion-infrastructure-deal-with-aramco/ Or a NOC
Shareholders just got used as a credit facility to buy back ownership of company at a later date. This share is at a significant discount and it should be discussed as a takeover target. Kirk and Cook update next Wednesday will be interesting. I hope everyone id watching
If all shares were unlocked this share would move. Only benefit for elongated draw out is for the private equity company to keep control. If I was in the investment team of a sovereign wealth fund I would recommend buying this company outright
HBR needs a strong update to generate institutional / private demand once they unlock the remaining shares for trading. I strongly believe there is significant strength in the North Sea with improved tie backs / recovery methods this share to me is a no brainer on technicals and strategic outlook
I saw Linda Cook was given share options to buy at c. 20p…will this be adjusted with the share consolidation to reflect the new price? I averaged down, I was so excited to own this share I bought some PMO as well as rebranded Harbour. Currently breaking even, keen to hear the trading update. With a significant private equity ownership I expect they have a 3-5 year strategy with less concern about near term share price. I don’t expect a dividend but I think they should commit with one with what I expect to be a very big growth cycle for the global economy. Are the hedges options or forward contracts? I’ve been following chrysalor for a few years and they are a good outfit that bought PMO. Although Linda Cook has everything to prove
The volatility that this share is showing means there are alot of people keeping an eye on the stock whether to short or go long. I see a bright future for the company beyond 1st April with a strong management team and new found economies of scale. Big whale re-entry who knows, but for everyone else just hold tight.