Member Info for Adastra

Time to rise

Agree with a lot of that but would think it sensible to see what the finals on March 4th bring. Company projected around £38m pre adjusted profit and management are under the microscope (and cosh) to resolve US underperformed. The Volex bid has certainly focussed critical eyes on the BoD. Perform or capitulate to bigger player. Either way I see plenty of upside here on value, quality and contracts of secured business from Blue Chip clients.

Point taken but I'm not convinced that they'll drop to nil at this time due to proximity of results and exposure to bid interest if BoD haven't resolved 2 US ops. Downswing has been manufactured by their releasing shares onto the market as they rebalanced. Common sense would dictate keeping some exposure even though they are now more TrumpUS focussed. TT is a good 2 way UK/US bet imo.

Blackrock tend to make concise decisions when it comes to their holdings from my extensive experience. They are quite pedantic in their decision making using standard percentage markers when adjusting ie 5 - 10 - 15% up and down. Blackrock hovered around the 10% from Sept to November and then appeared to signal a drop to 5% which is where we are at present. I think they'll now sit at this level having diverted funding elsewhere (probably US as Trump victory strengthens). If now at a halt we have a buying vacuum hoovering stock which will be in short supply with holders at this level. Interesting picture unfolding all imo I should add.

Looks like Blackrocks stop point of 5% stakeholding has been reached. That should precipitate a buying vacuum.

DMR.....TTE company USA looks an interesting suitor for TTG.... wonder where the Blackrock wedge has dropped?? Just supposition ...

Quality - tick

Value - tick

Volume - tick

Momentum...rolling...then the nitro!

Price rising on increasing volume with short term MAs crossing longer looks like this is cementing a sustained move now.

We are definitely in the stretched elastic zone now....

Once Blackrock end their rebalancing this should really bounce as their sale strategy is damping every rise. Once they stop the rebound should be pronounced. I suspect we are now either there or very very close at 5%. Love to know if they transferred their holdings to a single buyer??

Market is reflecting my comments - agreed. Time to sit back and chill now to watch progress. The gap jump at open reflects underlying change of sentiment. Once this initial pullback feeds through the blue trend should reform and gain momentum.

First kick and dip......now for the follow through....

Yep.....looks like we are in play. Too cheap.

Given all my comments and research here I've made my final top-up and will sit and wait as the finals approach and interest escalates.

86p has to be lighting up a lot of big company radar. TT must now be 'in-play' leading up to finals.......

It is looking totally oversold at present given that on Nov 14 an update RNS stated:

the Board expects FY24 adjusted operating profit to be at the lower end of our previously stated range of £37m-42m. FY24 leverage guidance is unchanged and is expected to be around or marginally above the top end of our stated target range of 1-2x..

Presuming adjusted operating profit of £37m that's a very low p/e. I am assuming there will be some writing down against 2 US stockholdings but that should be reasonable and UK, Europe and RoW are all doing fine. Blackrock have been rebalancing their holding here which is not unusual and it would be interesting to know if the buyer is a single entity. I think a lot will come to a head in the run up to results in March. Well overdue a nice little upswing.

If you go back to all the previous posts here from say Sept. and dyor you'll see that Volex made the two bids you've mentioned but the BoD here refused to engage in discussions since the offers were far below their seasoned valuation. They stated that a previous 3rd offer from an undisclosed party had offered 160. This was never RNS'd which may have upset institutional holders who collectively hold 50%+ of shares so they ultimately hold the upper hand. I've posted almost exclusively here as I believe a lot is happening behind the scenes that will become apparent at or shortly following results on March 3rd. I have outlined and justified my reasoning below. I think this is a unique time to get on board but that's me making an informed decision. I urge you to look at the Company, it's key areas of excellence, blue chip customers and contracts plus geographic spread. Add in probable predatory interest and not much else I can say.

Interesting.....Blackrock has been reducing since September ...... wonder who they've been selling to?? Market or single buyer......time will tell.....

TT is now in its closed period so barring fireworks little should happen before then. It will probably drift sideways BUT everything below the surface could be exactly the opposite. Should be very interesting as this month closes and I'm extremely optimistic of a great outcome from this dismal level. Silent witness time.

As of 2023, TT Electronics' revenue distribution by geography is as follows:

United Kingdom: 33%

North America: 40%

Rest of Europe: 14%

Asia and Rest of the World (RoW): 13%

You can bet your bottom $ that US suitors are watching developments here closely.