Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

ok - look forward to it!

Hi Tiger - I know this isn't the right forum but I also own both Tharisa and SLP. I think both are excellent and generate roughly the same proportion of Rhodium so why is the former rocketing and the other static? Presumably being a major chrome producer is holding Tharisa back?

Thanks Mark - pretty much the same stuff as was posted in December.

I'll judge by resulting but in any case it's not going to be a one qtr turnaround...

I missed the above call and wondered if anybody has found a recording of it on the website. If it exists could anybody point me in the right direction please?

To start with the RNS was pretty much as flagged previously and what I expected. Bmeister - I think you have alighted on an important point. It's long term but could be realising substantial value round about the same time as Gedabek finally runs out of reserves.
No it's Ireland that has me exercised! I thought this was a trip down an Irish rabbit hole from the beginning. The comment about the process taking longer than expected just leads me to suspect poor quality resources (with nice hotels) are being prioritised over potentially great resources (with no hotels)!

They just have to acknowledge whether the report is correct and will report back to the market with further details in due course. That would be both respectful both any bereaved families and shareholders alike.
It's not difficult to draft such an RNS either way....

Yes!

I've e-mailed the company to request a personal briefing. Haha - not quite just asked them whether they are aware of the news, market and share price reaction and whether they are going to respond.
I'll let you know of any response....

I wonder which we are?
There's some good stuff on NPVs and IRRs below but there all about a solid a calculation at the government's on COVID due to heroic assumptions that must be made.
I thought I'd try a different angle - literally
SHG , a company which I rate but have not yet invested in, announced drilling results on the 16th. Admittedly, it also announced the end of a debilitating hedge contract but this had been known about for months. The shares, which had been languishing, since a badly received share placing rocketed from that point. Comparing the share price performance between SHG and HUM the former have massively outperformed in the last few days.
So I should I'd compare the drilling results between SHG and HUM. In their RNS SHG produced 16 examples. Multiplying grades by metres and adding the 16 entries gives roughly 340. Taking the best results from HUM's today's results gives from the pdf schemas gives 740. There were plenty of results after the first 16 I didn't include either! Furthermore, SHG are valued at £170m versus HUM at £100m so proportionally the extra gold should have a bigger consequence for the share price.
I'm always wary of saying this but I think the short term reaction of the market is wrong. If you have marked up SHG shares on their results then at the very least the same should happen with HUM. I'm just gonna have to wait with the more stoical of you for the voting machine to turn into a weighing machine.
So there you have it.

I am and I'm not happy with that either. Two wrongs don't make a right!

Well Colonel I have to agree with you on this one. For the record I've been a long term holder buying in multiple times from 17p up to 35p. Yes I've done pretty well and the management thus far have earned my respect but not gratitude.
I don't see myself as a supplicant grateful to the that which is left to me by the managers of companies I invest in and I certainly don't accept I need to overlook their little peccadillos.
I've met Sununu senior on a few AGMs and yes he is a canny individual who's interest I judged to be roughly in line with mine. But appointing his son is another matter.
The qualifications sound good until you remember thanks to various admissions scandals that it isn't so hard to get into a school like MIT if your dad was governor of a neighbouring state. Also experience in the oil industry. Really? If you're going to employ a non-exec with non industry experience why not (and I never thought I see myself write this) on SRI. As for the Sununu Enterprises LLC - please! This is just daddy setting up his son in a nice little sinecure where daddy's contact list can ethically be harvested.
America is meant to be the land of opportunity spreading its enlightened views to undeveloped countries like Azerbaijan. Bullsh*t they are cesspits of nepotism and social inequality. I also not this is the one on partism issue with the politicos as the Hunter Biden saga shows.
This is the second red flag now after the Irish venture.

It might rhythm but nepotism never smells good especially if it emanates from the so called land of the free...

By all means let the Fool take the credit for the share price surge.
However, I've been invested in this stock long enough to know that the instinctive response of the share price to any number of recommendations is an big fat MEH!
Not yesterday though it seems...?

by the fact that the share price shot up 1 day before this announcement of good news.
Insider trading surely?

Turns out my self doubt (see below) coincided with peak Bitcoin and the trough of goldies (at least for now).
Just as well I sat on my fingers...

Until now I've believed that with fiscal incontinence comes the need to default away by inflation. My implicit assumption has been that gold would be the natural refuge for those seeking to preserve wealth. However, I'm beginning to think the zeitgeist is against it. Maybe it's a bit too physical just like cash. The sexy thing is money in e- (electrons). Phones and cards for transactions and bitcoin and their ilk for store of value.
Yes I've read up about bitcoin and blockchain but given the propensity of the criminal fraternity to inhabit its virtual world I just can't shake of my doubts and anyway the theoretical maximum of all the bitcoins doesn't go anywhere near the potential demand given the likely numbers fleeing fiat money. Maybe they'll go to the next best and cheaper thing say Ethereum but again how good is their governance. Just as with fiat money the temptation must be to increase the supply and make a quick buck.
With gold the physics is against you. I think that's the ultimate check on devaluing its worth.
Buy I'm going to keep asking myself - what if I'm wrong?

Thanks lootgaloot. I've read through the IC article and I got the distinct impression they've just taken the managements main takeouts and not looked a bit deeper. On the surface it looks reassuring but no real kicking of the tyres so try and explain concepts such as converting unrealised to realised and also gains in unrealised as the cases progresses. Most glaring of all no mention of cash conversion.
I've done a very crude calculation and basic assumptions like when an amount is converted to realised it becomes a trade debtor and added for 2019 & 2020 the all amounts converted to realised. I've then taken the total trade debtors position from 2018 up until 6 months into 2021 (i.e I've allowed 6 months to collect the debt). During this period circa £13.9m was converted to realised. During the extended period to Sep 20 debtors went up by £11.2m. Thus on my crude calculation only around 12% was converted into cash.
If I were a shareholder I would be pressing the management at the next AGM to come up with some form of metric showing how much cash has been converted from cases taken up and cases won.

I hear what you say. Growth is not the problem, the opportunities are pretty much endless. The company has to pick and choose based on two criteria. One - can they win the case and two - can they collect the money?
So far I think the answer is yes and no. At least no not so far.
Even when selling a good or service you will still not necessarily get paid. Just think what it must be like getting money out of people you have just successfully sued. Blood and stones comes to mind. The courts have proved time and time again that it can be impossible or at least prohibitively expensive to recover money from people they have ruled against.
Looking at the accounts Manolete are in danger of overtrading unless they can dramatically and quickly improve on the cash recovery.
Yes they can raise more cash, but to what end?
Like I say I'm new to this stock having seen a recommendation in the weekend FT and am not seeking in any way to de-ramp the stock. I'll dip in again at some point and see how things are panning out....
GLA

Guys - great debate and very helpful for an outsider to get a hook on the essentials. May I suggest you look at the realised revenue? This for me is the truly interesting part and the one at the nub of the investment decision.
Realised revenue is trade debtors and as such just have a look at the numbers. The amount of o/s balances has been consistently going up. Fair point I hear you say since the case load has also been going up.
However, from reading between the lines they haven't been collecting these debts in nearly enough volume. Note 9 in the interims shows that trade debts i.e. those they have sued have rocketed from nothing a year ago to 500k six months ago to nearly £10m now. How much of this old debt is actually going to be recovered. The sort of people they are suing are hard bitten chancers not the sort to pony up the money without further substantial debt recovery costs and could quite easily disappear into the woodwork. One other thing the cash drain on rapidly expanding trade debtors is being paid for by rapidly expanding trade creditors . Not a sustainable situation.
One final thing. How are they providing for these ballooning trade debtors? They state that "As revenue relates entirely to financing arrangements, revenue is recognised under the classification and measurement provisions of IFRS 9." All well and good but then go on to state "We have increased the level of our expected credit loss (ECL) provision to 4% (from 2%) which is applied to all trade receivables that have not been specifically provided against. "
But surely the whole point of IFRS9 is to take a case by case basis when providing against doubtful/bad debt.
And 4% - seems very panglossian.
Sorry I'm with Lucretuis on this one unless anybody else who has followed this stock longer than I have (15 minutes) can put me straight!

Yes - a key test (for me at least) is whether the new guy can impose his will on the organisation and get rid of the dead wood and worse...