Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

about new prospects is imo just fluff. The company's value derives from certainty i.e. its cash flow derived from it's existing assets. The greater the value of the gold and the lower the cost of extracting them ergo the greater the share price (at least in the medium to long term).
The gold is still there with a long term production sharing agreement. That much is known. What isn't known is whether the new man can put a rocket under the existing mine management and become at least half competent!

Yes I saw that too. Something I would like to take up with them at the next AGM. No other company has mentioned that too so I wonder if any skulduggery is involved...

SRB is not the only one to disappoint of late. There is a whole host of others such as HUM,CEY, SHG to name but a few that have announced sharply higher costs. I'm beginning to wonder whether they're getting rather complacent and relying on a buoyant gold price to get them out of trouble.

Thanks Gavster. At this moment in time having got in early I'm massively overweight this stock but I rate the management so am sticking . However, like another poster below I would have been tempted at around £1 but the big bid/offer makes for big swings. I appreciate your point about realtime quotes. However, it is not guaranteed that one will get a better price than indicated and it all takes time to keep checking just in case.
I've recently picked up some SRB shares on the back of a badly received RNS and as you rightly say the shares were on offer at a lower price than indicated.
Boy you have to keep your wits about you!!!

In addition https://eurasianet.org/stepanakert-prepares-for-the-last-stand

I've never understood why this share has such a large spread, It makes trading the share unappealing. Based on the bid being the denominator the spread is currently 7.7%. Whilst say for HUM it is 4.1%.
I noticed before the AGM somebody attempted to ask the question and got a very dusty answer from the Board.
Any suggestions?

Thanks for the reply. I suppose one explanation is that many of the traders in various city institutions are chartists and they're the ones driving the apparently erratic short term price movements. Shaking out a few PIs wouldn't hurt either!

You make a fair point Rich. As Graham said in the short term the market is a voting machine whilst in the longer term it is a weighting machine. By temperament I'm a weighting machine man myself although I absolutely can see you point about a group of investors following technical analysis buying and selling on the basis of what the graphs are showing them. It might be a load of mumbo jumbo but if enough of the market believes it to be true then hey presto the graphs become a self fulfilling prophecy!
My problem is that apart from the fact I do think it is mumbo jumbo it also becomes an expensive arms race with those having the best trading programmes and analytics will normally steal a march on those less well endowed. Patience for me is a necessary virtue.
If graphs are leading the price by the nose. What then has served to put the share price back on the up again? Have the graphs changed shape in some mysterious way?

Update - now up by 10+%

I've tended not to believe posters assertions that some shadowy group of brokers/portfolio managers walk the share price up and down depending on whether they want dumb PIs to sell shares cheaply or buy them expensively but after the last few days, I'm beginning to wonder.
HUM's share price has relentlessly fallen. OK since the last RNS, which was a mixed bag, there was some latitude for this and anyway up to yesterday the slide seemed to accelerated. Surely after a couple of weeks the information in the Q3 RNS would have been digested by the market.
And then today. First thing HUMs shares were up by over 7%. Was there an RNS? Nope! Was the market supportive. Nope - it was initially down by 1%. Was the gold price supportive? Nope - again gold price down by approx 1%. The only possible support was the $ being up by 1% against £. That's 1% not 7+%
I think I'm going over to the dark side. Might vote Trump next time...

I'd known about the license in Ngorno but tried as I might I couldn't find out how much territory the Azeris had gained. Perversely I'm less bothered about the reserves which at face value are too small by themselves to justify setting up a plant and also more than likely to be re-occupied by vengeful Armenians than the fact that the license area is now under Azeri control. To be fully optimistic one needs a comprehensive peace settlement that leaves the area under Azeri control.
I'm not holding my breath....

Yes I take your point about the whole company being more transactionally based than investment based. This is one of the crying shames about Covid. Not being able to meet the BoD eye to eye and determine whether they are capable of change now through a combination of smart deals and luck they have got themselves a reasonable portfolio of assets. I'm definitely sticking on this one until I get a better steer - for better of worse.
SHG - ah yes! I've been quite an active contributor to that Board and I won't take up space repeating my arguments. Suffice to say Erin and Co look a better bet than Dan and Associates but, I'm not very happy about the tax jurisdiction they operate in. I may be paranoid but I cannot forget Acacia's demise. Stuff like the ongoing VAT issue and the upcoming tax audit are a bid concern. Also Erin & co are not perfect either. Maybe it's a quibble but I can't find any provision in the accounts for a VAT provision and they're jolly well should be given it's been nearly a year since they got back any rebates. Also the announcement of a placing caught a lot of people on the hop.
Have you looked at CMCL? Zimbabwe is not the best of places but they have a very nice long term asset there and they pay dividends. I have a small holding btw

Thanks Dropmonkey although I'm not quite so downbeat on the management as you. I view it rather as a Faustian deal. The opportunities in small AIM miners such as HUM can be outstanding but they always get to get first dibs as the returns. Although not crumbs ordinary shareholders are second best. Having said that the situation ain't so difference in many other sectors of the investment world either.
I'm curious what goldy management teams teams stick out for you? I don't see any outstanding examples with the possible exception of AAZ. Bear in mind I only cover UK stocks.

Kudavul - gold explorers cannot stand still. They have to explore new areas to replace depleted reserves. They also have to build in resilience to the mining plan by having more mining faces than they would normally work in case a problem arises on an active face. This gives them resilience, something that the wallies in CEY haven't done!
In other words expenditure such as you mention are not optional extras, they are an integral part of operational costings.
It's not hard to see now a curates egg of an RNS can result in a 5% drop in the share price when punters such as yourself take all the promises management make without question or challenge.
Actions speak louder than words. HUM are not all talk and no action but nore is their operation a seamless well oiled predictable machine. Yet!

Cheers Punter - another incisive comment full of objective views backed by copious facts. Fraid you ain't shaken my tree yet!
However, this RNS presents us with the very much a glass half full/empty conundrum.
Personally, I'm going with the half full particularly now their essentially debt free status gives them optionality in what they do next and how they finance it.
However, I want to see clear operational efficiencies before I resume any degree of enthusiasm for this company. They made some general comments about doing this at the end of the RNS. I would be nice to see these actioned.
As with other goldies e..g CEY there is a danger of getting fat and lazy on an elevated gold price.
This only suits the managers and workers not us the shareholders!

Good for you artrader, I don't people on this Board quite understand how venal the Tanzanian government behaved in regard to Acacia and then Barrick.
A leopard doesn't change its spots - let's see what this forthcoming tax investigation brings. Rumour has it the crack taxation investigation unit have just hired a certain Vladimir Puton as consultant extraordinaire!

I think this is partly due to the ore sorter not being used. Presumably not being fed lower grade ores due to lack of manpower. However, he does mention that when it is used grades increase by up to six fold

I've been looking at SRB for some time now. Today was my entry point. Brazil is ravaged by COVID which ironically is good news when viewed from the point of at least partial herd immunity. The gold is still in the ground. It may yet be more valuable for staying there for the time being...

Indeed - Hanlon's Razor every time I'm afraid...

Reading over the RNS again I'm taking a couple of positives amongst all the negatives:
- according to the management much of the work in the next few quarters is about opening up new workings thus giving "increase optionality". As anyone pricing options knows optionality has value and thus all the extra work should create value albeit of an intangible nature
- according to the production sharing agreement profits are calculated after allowable expenses. Assuming the extra costs are allowable then assuming I understand the agreement correctly the State of Egypt will take 55% of the increased hit compared to our (we investors) hit of 45%.
As LoB intones - always look on the bright side of life tum de tum...