RE: Bilateral Investment Treaty18 Nov 2020 08:13
Morning oldschool321
Excellent research.
As you know I am the optimist when it comes to Pathfinder, others like lootagloot , bucklefern and we once had the famous Riddler posting all are saying we have had it.
Let me give you an example of what has happened here with the mining license.
Someone turns up at the house you own with official land registry deeds with their name on them. Did you officially sell , transfer or give your house away ? NO
Have you defaulted the ownership of the house by mortgage arrears or debts ? NO
So how come the deeds have a new owner on them ?
As regarding the costs of the BIT that will be paid for by our no win no fee legal practice.
As regarding the length of the BIT I would hope as this appears to be a simple case that it won’t take anywhere near 4 years.
As regarding dilution Pathfinder are looking at getting the U.K. Court costs back, I know the Mozambique Courts found some obscure get out clause for this but you cannot take part in a legal case and then challenge the ruling, put up no defence and then refuse to pay.
If the worst comes to the worst then yes raise funds through share issues and dilution.
The potential rewards.
Mozambique Government realises that they are on a hiding to nothing and gives the license back.
Pathfinder was valued at £80 million when we first had the licence add on a conservative 25% with the resource upgrade, total £100 million.
Pathfinder should also insist on compensation for the lost 9 years of license development whether in the form of money, another license or infrastructure paid for by the Mozambique Government.
BIT process goes all the way and Pathfinder win, as above £100 million plus £10 million per year compensation for loss of earnings , court case costs in Mozambique and share dilution.
Total value £200 million if concluded in 2021, 10 years of disputes. Any later than 2021 add £10 million for each year. Minus of course our no win no fee practice, I haven’t a clue what the percentage will be, say 25% so final amount to Pathfinder ... £150 million.
So only 50 or 75 times our current market capitalisation.
Worth a punt ? You bet !
Stay Safe and Stay Long
Adamsky