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Morning All,
We are nearing the deadline of the 21st of March to sign the SPA and I am surprised how quiet it is.
I will post what I posted the last deadline.
What are people’s thoughts ….
A) SPA gets signed on the 21st
B) An agreed delay till ???
C) The SPA is called off
D) TZM are going to negotiate a settlement
Mine is A) but hope for D)
Best of luck
Adamsky
Evening Freebuffett ,
I have coped below the relevant part below from the RNS on the 29th of September which announced the agreement. The £2 million to Pathfinder is in pounds but the other figures are in dollars.
In simple terms AAG have to pay Pathfinder £2 million for IMM and raise $15 million dollars and start the claim within 3 months. Rough exchange rate AAG will have committed to £15 million up front. The wording states raising AT LEAST $15 million.
If successful Pathfinder gets $24 million or 20% of the successful claim if greater.
The last paragraph from the RNS , copied below, states the independent minimum claim of $110 million.
As I keep posting with Pathfinder jumping through all the hoops to start the claim by engaging with the relevant parties who have just ignored any resolution by the sound of it and a High Court judgement in our back pocket how can the BIT claim fail.
AAG have carried out months of due diligence and if they purchase IMM they must know they are onto a dead cert and the successful claim with be worth many hundreds of millions with 20% to Pathfinder.
The Mozambique Government will be made to pay for their corrupt practices of transferring the licence twice and potential incorrect rulings in their courts.
FROM THE RNS 29/09/22
· Payment of £2 million in cash to Pathfinder by AAG for the acquisition of 100% of IMM on signature of the Acquisition Agreement
· Binding commitment by AAG to commence legal proceedings against the Government of Mozambique in respect of the Claim within three months of completion of the Acquisition Agreement with AAG confirming that it has secured at least US$15 million and will use its best endeavours to pursue the Claim to a satisfactory conclusion within five years
· Contingent payment by AAG to Pathfinder of US$24 million or 20% of net recoveries (whichever is greater) from any award or settlement of the Claim
"This transaction, if completed, will ensure that the full force of a timely and well-funded Claim is brought against the Government of Mozambique and that Pathfinder could participate very considerably in any financial upside which has been independently evaluated to be worth in a range of US$110 million to US$1.5 billion.
END OF RNS
As I keep saying on news of the deal the share price should rise many times on the prospect of a major payday.
Adamsky
Morning Freebuffet,
I have a more optimistic view. Shares are not always valued on their current worth, some less and some far more on future prospects. Pathfinder fall in to the latter I believe.
If AAG buy IMM and spend the £15 million, as agreed , after all the due diligence AAG must realise they are on to a dead cert. Each passing day and each passing month the money demanded by AAG will increase. Not sure if all can be taken into account but the constant raises to keep Pathfinder afloat, the loss in revenue over the last 12 years and of course the now even more massive value of the resources.
Mozambique Government needs to force TZM to pay up now to cover up their corruptive practices or have them exposed to the world. If it is a successful BIT claim it will be the Mozambique Government who will have to pay £100’s of millions pounds to AAG. You are not dealing with a peanut British company anymore you are dealing with hard nosed lawyers who will know the true value of the license and ensure they get its true worth.
Have a good Sunday
Adamsky
Evening All,
I was in Oxus Gold and Churchill Mining, a fool and his money is easily parted.
Third time lucky ?
Please remember we have a U.K. High Court ruling in our favour, we all know the license has been stolen.
Let the battle begin.
Adamsky
Good afternoon OTB,
I am feeling great, thanks for asking.
After the last RNS I am feeling confident that we will either sign on or soon after the 21st or an explained delay of more time needed or by some miracle the Moz Government or TZM have finally woken up to the legal action that is coming their way.
I am optimistic, let’s hope the share price reflects this.
Have a good Sunday.
Adamsky
Afternoon All,
We are nearing the deadline of the 21st of February to sign the SPA and I am surprised how quiet it is.
What are people’s thoughts ….
A) SPA gets signed on the 21st
B) An agreed delay till ???
C) The SPA is called off
D) TZM are going to negotiate a settlement
Mine is A) but hope for D)
Have a good weekend Adamsky
Afternoon Lookingformoney,
As you say they are at the last chance saloon, force TZM to pay up, Mozambique won’t, or pay many more millions once IMM are sold to AAG. A successful claim by AAG will damage the reputation even more of a country that allowed a stolen license to be officially registered with Veloso and co and then allowed the stolen license to be then sold to TZM.
TZM and Mozambique Government ignore the financial and reputation damage at your peril
Adamsky
Good Morning FreeBuffett,
Great find but I don’t think it is our claim as I assume as part of the process you have to state the owner and legal representation. I think that until IMM is sold to AAG they can’t start the legal process.
On the other hand it wouldn’t surprise me if more companies are taking legal action against the Mozambique Government as if our episode is anything to go by the BIT claim department will have a ‘Queue Here’ sign on their virtual door.
The more the Mozambique Government has claims lodged against them the more it strengthens our claim as the adjudicators will just look at the track record of the country and not be surprised of another claim.
Let’s be honest if the sale goes ahead after all the due diligence AAG must have carried out and checked every part of this sad tale they must be certain of a successful outcome which will be in the £100’s of millions.
AAG are not going to spend £15 million initially, do we know if more funding is required, on a punt.
The above is not investment advice but a hopeful outcome for us all.
Enjoy the Rugby or watching squirrel videos !
Adamsky
Good afternoon all.
I was getting concerned that AAG might have found out that Pathfinder’s claim was not as water tight as we had been led to believe. But with a U.K. High Court ruling in our back pocket and all the underhand transfer of the licence to Veloso and co. by the Moz Mining Department and the refusal of the Moz courts to recognise the U.K. High Court Ruling arrogance and corruption appear to be rife in Mozambique’s government and legal systems.
Well I am most surprised that the share price isn’t at least double it’s current value.
Effectively the Moz Government has until the 21st of February to head off the Tsunami that is heading their way. The only way out of it is for the Moz Government to force TZM to cough up millions to pay PFP and AAG to not go ahead with the sale of IMM and pursue the claim.
If IMM is sold to AAG then each day that passes AAG will demand a higher payout as they would have already spent considerable sums of money on the due diligence, paying Pathfinder £2 million and the £12.5 minimum that requires raising as part of the deal within 3 months. Total approximately £15 million spent by AAG.
After the SPA is signed and AAG has raised the funds if Moz decide to settle the claim or force TZM to pay up the payout to AAG might be well in excess of £100 million.
As I have waited years , what’s a few more , I would rather it went to a judgement which could either mean handing the licence back to AAG , thanks TZM for starting to build the infrastructure , or a payout in the £100’s of millions.
I suspect the Mozambique Government will just ignore events until they are forced to engage via the BIT process and finally realise it is not a small British company they are dealing with and can no longer ignore.
The sooner a settlement is made the cheaper to settle.
On the other hand the conspiracy theorists could speculate that the extensions are there for a final chance to settle.
Only time will tell
Best of luck
Adamsky
Here are my thoughts, no investment advice as I usually get it wrong !
As mentioned before I am a pessimist in life but for some reason an extreme optimist when it comes to shares.
I have a large amount of shares bought over the last 10 years on the belief we cannot lose as we have a High Court ruling in our back pocket.
But the extension of the due diligence, the £0.5 million raise and deadly silence from Align has got me concerned. As mentioned in the previous post why raise and dilute if £2 million is coming our way, why are Align quite, very unlike them, although I am not a great fan of theirs.
I also do not agree with another poster that if we win we will not get 20% owing to expenses etc. . From what I have read we get 20% of the total amount awarded and if AAG win they will probably recover their expenses via the ruling. Our involvement and financial commitment will cease at the point of selling IMM.
We all have different thoughts and financial positions so it is down to the individual.
I personally wouldn’t buy anymore as I have too many and as people say , invest only what you can afford to lose but correct me if I am wrong but a cash shell company would be worth half the current share price so if correct you stand to lose 50% from the current SP.
Keep the faith
Adamsky
Good evening all,
Sorry for the late response but have been busy.
I will write two posts, the first about the loan and placing and the second relating to my thoughts.
I am confused, doesn’t take much I know !
RNS dated the 29th of September £120,000 loan till 3rd Feb
RNS dated the 28th of December £120,000 plus additional £40,000 till the 31st March
RNS 3rd of January ………….
The net proceeds from the Placing will be used for general working capital purposes and, as a condition of the Placing, to repay the loan facility of up to £160,000 plus interest (the "Loan") as described in the Company's announcements dated 29 September 2022 and 28 December 2022. As previously announced on 28 December 2022, the Loan was ultimately placed with an individual, with such individual also being the ultimate owner and controller of the Broker.
I am confused, have we used all the loan up and need more money , if not why do the share placing as we have the loan till 31st March ?
Also as another poster has mentioned IF we stand a chance of £2 million from AAG why do the share placing diluting all shareholders by 20% and why so much ?
Any thoughts from other posters ?
Adamsky
Afternoon Dip666,
What a fantastic find, game on. The relevant part I have copied below …….
Mining firm Pathfinder Minerals lost the rights to mine a Mozambique mineral deposit in 2011. It’s spent a decade chasing them back. Now, it has struck a deal to sell the claim and its subsidiary, IM Minerals (IMM), to the Acumen Advisory Group (AAG), an asset recovery firm.
Acumen has the financial muscle to claim against the Mozambique Government for its unlawful transfer of the licence, so the deposit could change hands yet again. Pathfinder executives claim that the licence was transferred to a company controlled by its “former local partners”, and then sold on to TZM Resources SA, a Chinese state-owned miner, all without the knowledge or consent of Pathfinder.
A Happy New Year
Adamsky
Good Afternoon Oldschool,
If there is an extension to the 27th I personally think this is neutral news as AAG are still checking rather than binning us as not enough evidence for a valid claim.
If all the due diligence is completed why not announce this earlier to show the Moz Government and TZM that we have such a strong case AAG are taking on the claim and are starting ASAP.
Just my personal thoughts. As you say 5.5 days to go until Christmas the 27th is a BH so if an extension announce it earlier with an update.
Adamsky
Oldschool,
I am a bit unsure as to why you think nothing will happen until the 27th when the exclusive agreement finishes, if not extended.
If AAG have completed their due diligence and realise they are onto a winner why not sign up before then ?
My thought also are if TZM are pressurised by the Moz Government to settle with PFP to save their fraudulent activities within the stealing of the licenses, as per the High Court ruling, AAG will want to get in early to get a nice slice of the pie without potentially doing anything.
We are listed on the AIM exchange where companies are sometimes valued higher on future prospects.
PFP currently valued at £3 million
£2 million from AAG.
If AAG take over IMM they have got to be pretty certain they can win the claim, at least £20 million to PFP or potentially many times this figure.
Conservative value £25 million which equals 4.7p per share.
I am sure everyone has seen over the last few weeks the massive trades of equal amounts with a very small price difference and the TR1 from Jennings.
My wishful thinking , or naive you may say, is that the big boys are moving their shares around to shelter some of the BIG gains coming our way.
I am a pessimist in life but not sure why an optimist when share investing.
Keep the faith and everything crossed.
Adamsky
Morning All,
As per the RNS on the 29th of September there is one month left on the exclusive agreement with AAG till the 27th of December, unless both parties agree to extend.
Just to gather other posters thoughts what do you think will happen in the next month or extended period if necessary.
A) TZM and Moz Government realise they are in a corner and settle with Pathfinder.
B) AAG take on the claim and we get £2 million.
C) AAG doesn’t take up the claim.
Any opinions on share price of the 3 options above.
My wild guesses are …
A) 18p to 22p
B) 4p to 5p
C) .5p
Any other options ?
I hope A) but think it will be B)
Keep the faith and let’s hope for good news soon.
Adamsky
Evening All,
On the initial valuation TekCapital tweeted that you had to add the two warrants per share to the valuation price so the value you kindly worked out needs to be 50% greater.
Do you guys agree ?
Thanks
Adamsky
Kwota,
As Oldblue didn’t answer, or in riddles , I will give you my thoughts, not financial advice by the way.
As I love telling this board I have held shares in Pathfinder since February 2013, buying, never selling.
I am very happy with the news as the end game is upon us after years of attempting to get our stolen licenses back, as per the U.K. High Court ruling.
The case might go ahead if we engage AAG, no guarantees , or if TZM and the Mozambique Government realise what is heading their way and settle before the claim gets underway.
As per the RNS if the currently engaged company , AAG, proceed we will end up with a minimum of £2 million immediately , whatever the result, and with a successful claim we will receive a minimum of $24 million or 20% of the court’s settlement, whichever is greater.
People are incorrect in saying nothing will happen for 3 months, the due diligence could take longer or on the other hand a settlement could be agreed tomorrow, unlikely though, or in the next few weeks or the due diligence could take far less than 3 months.
We are in interesting times and let’s see what plays out over the next few weeks or months.
Hope this helps and no investment advice intended.
Adamsky
Good Afternoon, hope you are all well ?
Well what an RNS , the BOD have done sterling work to finally get the Mozambique Government to account for their actions in the theft, as per the U.K. court ruling , of our mining licence.
I am surprised the share price is not higher but wheels are in motion that should re rate the price significantly.
The only question I have is if PFP get paid the £2 million and AAG fail to complete the two agreed actions listed below do PFP keep the £2 million ?
· Binding commitment by AAG to commence legal proceedings against the Government of Mozambique in respect of the Claim within three months of completion of the Acquisition Agreement with AAG confirming that it has secured at least US$15 million and will use its best endeavours to pursue the Claim to a satisfactory conclusion within five years.
As I have said before , there is no guarantee though , how can we lose as the U.K. High Court reviewed all the evidence and found in PFP’s favour. Forget the subsequent court cases in Mozambique as who knows what undue influence had been put on the courts to come to their contradictory conclusion to the U.K. ruling.
To sum up TZM now have a massive risk that their licence could be taken away and handed back after spending millions on infrastructure or having to pay AAG and PFP hundreds of millions to retain the stolen licence in the future.
The Mozambique government has to have a good long look at itself as if there was any wrong-doing in the initial transfer of the license to Veloso and co. or had undue influence on the Mozambique court’s decisions then what message is this sending out about the government to companies wishing to invest in Mozambique.
The way I read the RNS is that AAG have up to 3 months to carry out due diligence, with an agreement on both parties to extend if necessary.
Who says it will take up to 3 months as some due diligence must have already taken place. An agreement could be signed in a month. If TZM or the Mozambique government want to head off a potential massive embarrassment and financial loss now is the time to act. Or do they feel lucky ?
PS Who bought 5% of the company with those late posted trades ?
Have a great week
Adamsky