RE: Fellow Investors19 Jan 2019 00:46
Hi Lee,
My guess would be 1.5p if theres no major issues with production (which imo there wont be, as the board are quick to notify when problems arise) if in the same rns its confirmed that production is at 100% then 2p is reserved as one or 2 days on top of risers leaderboard (which would happen with a semi decent rns) attracts major attention, them same people read up and find out that finance restructing news is imminent, would result in them buying in creating positive sentiment and push the price higher (thats considering how hard it is to buy in right now, today being perfect example NT at full ask) - expecting this rns to land anytime next week (my guess is tues/wed)
We then have debt restructuring rns to come (imo first week of feb, but can come at anytime before then as deadline of 31st jan) again, we believe with appointment of such a high profile and experienced ceo this is something that has already or is very close to being agreed (previous ceo who has existing relationship with lenders, is still on the company board in a non exec role - personally i feel new ceo only came on board as he was given assurances that debt refinancing wouldnt be a problem). Once debt restructuring has taken place, in theory the SP should be at around 5p (if production is stable and at a decent %, if next week confirms nameplate production then 5p is cheap, not that its going to be 5p but Will definately be multiples of todays price)
I know the above sounds very rampy, but its only rampy for guys who have been here since the drop over the last few months. LTH like CV and Pharma and many more having read historical messages around the company couldnt ever imagine the price being at todays lows, never mind where it was 3 weeks ago. At 4p they considered it cheap without producing any gold, nevermind at nameplate capacity which were potentialy at now.
From this point if we can produce at nameplate capacity for a sustained length of time (considering 18 months at full production would enable us to wipe out all debt with profit) initially for 3-4 months then needless to say the sp would be given the true rerate the assets deserve. For those that have averages under 1p (and chose to let some shares run, as i have no doubt some will top slice and that is their prerogative, each to their own).
The above is based on a decent rns next week (a brilliant one confirming full production would be amazing), if the news is bad and theres issues with production which we have no reason to believe there is as per presentation on company website this week then SP would take a hit (how far can it go down considering how low it already is, my guess would be an SP around 0.75 which has been a resistance point recently), if there were any production difficulties the company would have something in the same rns confirming how they are actively rectifying the situation.
If refinancing rns followed a bad update as parapgraph above i believe the SP would still