Member Info for AceofClubs

Fitch Downgrades Victoria on EBITDA Deterioration: December 13, 2024 at 05:26 am

Fitch on Thursday downgraded the long-term issuer default rating of Victoria (VCP.L) to B+ from B, citing the significant deterioration in the company's EBITDA. The rating agency said the flooring products manufacturer's credit metrics are now beyond the negative sensitivities for fiscal 2025 and 2026.

The outlook on the rating is negative, reflecting Fitch's expectation of negative free cash flow for the company for the fiscal years 2025 through 2028. Combined with high leverage and low-interest coverage, Fitch said the negative free cash flow could increase refinancing risk for the company in fiscal 2026.

AceofClubs

"Entain has co-operated fully with AUSTRAC throughout its investigation, and in December 2022 commenced a programme of further enhancements to Entain Australia's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing ("AML and CTF") systems and processes. This dedicated programme, as communicated to AUSTRAC, is due to be completed in June 2025."

Two and a half years Mr Isaacs - two and a half years? Shame on you. Until ENTAIN has viable management it will remain a basket case.

AceofClubs

The CEO has bought before at many multiples of the current share price. His recent purchase cost but a fraction of his annual salary. His total holding is worth £250k at todays price - less than his annual salary.

Followers of the CEO's purchases will be clutching rather large losses - others appear to be clutching at straws.

The holders of the bonds and preferred shares are in control here.

AceofClubs

Just doubled holding (quantity) at a tad over 62p - must be losing the plot.

AceofClubs

Any CABP holder who thinks the American bureaucracy is any hurry to grant access to the American market to a very small British company is deluded: "America First" has been the policy for at least 100+ years. Equally, I cannot see American government, NGO, or commercial organisations rushing to give business to CABP if/when a licence is granted.

It will easily turn out to be just a certificate to hang on a wall; a bit like the EU licence.

Only a small investor here, but even smaller now with a 100p entry point!

Ace ofClubs

"From here we can easily see 100% profit considering the takeover offer last month was for around 145. "

There was no "Takeover Offer" - they opened the books, looked at the numbers, and walked away.

AceofClubs

Peter Cruddas: "The write-off of our initial investment is purely an accounting decision and does not reflect our belief in StrikeX's technology or potential, nor does it indicate any change in our partnership."

If the belief in StrikeX's technology and potential is so strong why write off the investment as worthless? As always - actions speak louder than words.

AceofClubs

"Company liquidity remains robust with cash on hand and undrawn credit lines continuing to provide more than £200 million of available liquidity."

Mr Wilding knows very well that the providers of the theoretical undrawn credit lines have no intention of, ideally, lending any of that money to Victoria. If Victoria attempted to draw on that in any meaningful way the shutters would come down. Victoria will be having to keep its lenders fully informed of its cash/borrowing position on a daily/weekly basis.

Meanwhile Koch Industries sits on its perch awaiting a good cheap meal.

AceofClubs

A relatively new holder with a small position: interim results look excellent across all metrics. I do like managers with vision and ambition and the ability to deliver. This looks underrated compared to Fintech companies listed outside of London. Companies with much less potential seem to attract more attention. An apparent gem of a business hiding in plain sight.

AceOfClubs

Hello DEC punters: this board has disintegrated into a haven for the spewing of personal vitriol and bile – you don’t need names; you know who you are. Do everybody a favour and find a new pastime to fill your empty days & nights.

Meanwhile; for those interested in the investment credentials of DEC:

There is no National market in the US for the wholesaling of gas: it is a series of regional markets with very, very different achievable prices. Henry Hub is merely a benchmark price for gas delivered to the distribution hub in Erath, Louisiana. The bulk of DEC’s production will not be deliverable to this Hub. It’s Appalachian production (now reduced by divestments) will, at a price, be deliverable to the Eastern Gas South Hub near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Appalachian pipelines are generally fully loaded and mid-stream companies charge accordingly.

Much more information here: https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference

DEC management currently has very little credibility and is its great weakness. It has an over dominant CEO who has no compunction saying one thing Tuesday: something completely different Thursday. Company direction or strategy? Blowin’ in the wind my friend, just blowin’ in the wind.

AceOfClubs Opinion: Weak Hold - A comany not in control of its own destiny.

@Gohanito - Basic data such as total return from a share holding is available on any decent financial website - for free on londonstockexchange.com. 170% is thecorrect number ( a bit less after today). Most on here are blind to being paid dividends while the real value of their capital is washed away. The share price is much the same today as in 2009, but in 2009 550p bought more than half a pint of lager in a London bar. DYOR - most follow the herd.

AceOfClubs

Phoenix was floated in November 2009. Total return performance since floatation has been: + 170%, FTSE100 + 169%, SP500 + 1,078%.

Where would you rather be invested chaps & chap-esses?

It is a blight on Britain that so much of its pension & savings wealth is under the control of Phoenix, Abdn, M&G et.al. Where is a real reforming Chancellor when one is so desperately needed?

AceOfClubs

"tennyson securities remains bullish on the stock, reiterating a buy recommendation with a target price of £20 per share." Is that the Tennyson Securities involved with COPL (also an O&G company) a few months back? Or is it a more reputable Tennyson Securities?

AceOfClubs

Poster comments:

“how a business with significant free cash flow, able to settle all liabilities as they fall due, is able to make significant debt repayments and also pay significant dividends is going to be forced to resort to Chapter 11 bankruptcy arrangements. Something does not seem to add up.”

“I think DEC has just run out of cash”

How is DEC doing on the cash/debt/interest liability front? We now have six months figures from 2024 so let us compare with 2023 – following all those accretive purchases and disposals, Rusty must have trouble stuffing all that free cash under his hat?

In 2024 “Cash Generated From Operations” was $163.7M a 6.2% decline from the same period in 2023, $174.5M. There can be an argument about including movements in working capital but I have always maintained if you want to be serious about a company’s ability to meet “liabilities as they fall due” you just cannot ignore creditors/debtors/stocks etc.

Movements in working capital added $29M to Cash Flow in 2024 and $101.7M in 2023. Adding these: totals positive cash flow of $192.7M in 2024 and $276.1M in 2023 – a YoY decline of 30.2%. I guess there is only so much you can stretch creditors and squeeze those debtors!

A declining cash flow is not necessarily bad news if significant liabilities and cash obligations are falling as well.

Shall we take a peek? Long term debt increased from $1,325M in 2023 to $1,703M in 2024 – 28.5% increase. Interest payable over 12 months on the debt figures at 30 June increased from $79.9M in 2023 to $122.2M in 2024 a 53% increase. You will have to cut me a bit of slack: I know the debt is largely amortising monthly; but the figures are produced on a comparable basis.

It is the direction and magnitude of travel that is important. Perhaps Rusty has room under his hat for the company’s cash after all?

DYOR. All figures $000's – AceofClubs

I think all of these shorting businesses have given their trainees or interns DEC as a training exercise. Total shorts worth £36M across 10 companies? Petty cash to these people, just petty cash.

The bulls should rejoice every time the shorts increase: meanwhile the market will decide.

AceOfClubs

Only a small holding here getting to know the company.

Key Highlights are all tinkering at the margins - "Focus on deepening the relationship" - Focus on the diversification" - "investing in the development of new products"- "better utilization" - "Beefed up"- "Guided for sustainable growth" - "expected to grow volume" standard stuff expected in any business - long on words short on numbers.

No reason to increse here at the moment.

AceOfClubs

Most of the forecast growth in oil and natural gas production in the U.S. in 2025 will come from the Permian region, where rising production will be supported by productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure and high crude oil prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecast that U.S. crude production will grow to 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d) and marketed natural gas production will grow to 114.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025.

Currently, more rigs are active in the Permian region than in the rest of the Lower 48 states combined, the EIA noted. Since early 2023, the Permian has had more active rigs than the rest of the states and has continued to complete hundreds of wells each month.

As of July, newly completed wells in the Permian were producing an average of 433,000 b/d in their first full month. Natural gas production from new Permian wells in July averaged 780 million cubic feet per day. This new well production is more than offsetting declines in production from existing wells, the EIA said.

Growing well productivity suggests that operators in the Permian are successfully implementing more advanced drilling and completion techniques, including longer lateral lengths, optimized well spacing, and enhanced fracturing designs, according to the agency. The EIA forecast that crude oil production in the Permian region will increase by 430,000 b/d from 2023 to 6.3 million b/d in 2024 and 6.6 million b/d in 2025, partly due to drilling productivity improvements. Similarly, the agency expects marketed natural gas production in the Permian to rise by 1.9 Bcf/d in 2024 and by 1.0 Bcf/d in 2025 to average 25.8 Bcf/d in 2025. Most of the natural gas production in the Permian is associated natural gas and comes from oil-directed wells. The EIA expects crude oil prices to remain sufficiently high to support growth in crude oil production and associated natural gas production in the region.

AceOfClubs

Oakbloke: "The hedging, while complicated, and misunderstood delivers and smooths profits."

In the same post he creates a chart that demonstrates that between 2019 - 2024 "the hedging" has cost shareholders a net $691.1M. in cash. He fails to mention "the hedging" is not a management option; it is an obligation imposed on DEC to protect the interests of Bondholders. It ensures sufficient cash to cover interest and capital repayments; at whatever cost to shareholders; any benefit is a matter of mere chance. Anybody who doesn't agree with him "misunderstands". Tony Blair was a prolific user of that stance.

His comments on what another great buy Rusty has made should be considered against every other buy (and disposal) - all ranked in the "great" category. Yet we are where we are. Where is this business headed? Impossible to compare any periods performance against any other period - as has already been noted.

DEC is not a clear sell, one of the reasons I remain invested at 1% of portfolio. It certainly is not a buy in my book: an uncomfortable hold.

AceOfClubs

Hello Blue Willy,

Quite correct: I sold out of JUST at a shade over 90p at a small profit having held for too many years watching it gyrate between 70-90p whilst paying a very small dividend.

IPO'd at 225p November 12 2013, currently trading 40% below that and apart from a few months has never traded above the IPO price. Has returned a negative total return of -30% over 10+ years. A dog's dinner with useless management: I think it's well qualified. No regrets.

AceofDudds

"the portion of the YPF case for BUR is cc 38 %. So around 4 bn usd (1.5 / 0.38 ) , even for 6 bn usd Argies would settle tomorrow. After conclusion of the appeal process, they might do it for 50 % (8 bn). We would be more then satisfied with that. I believe we have to wait about 6-8 months and the settlement negotiations, or the settlement agreement will come. "

@RIDER75 - You appear to have detailed inside information on the Argentine Government's position in the YPF case - I suggest you inform Mr Bogart immediately!

"Besides that you claim that othet cases, the vore business itself cannot produce enough income to cover rhe costs? I doubt" I don't claim it: the numbers show it.

AceofClubs