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GeekBench: It's not about loyalty - CMC was already on a serious downhill track in July. If the CFO wants to jump ship it CAN be a sign the ship is sinking; or may be the two were just a coincidence? Everybody is entitled to draw their own conclusion but on 7 July CMC share price was 150p, it's dropped nearly 30% in less than 2 months.
Meanwhile, the remaining "extremely talented people" at CMC are manning the bilge pumps!
AceOfClubs
Indeed Mary - and in case you missed these:
7 July: He clearly sees greener pastures elsewhere. If the CFO is giving up on CMC why should anybody else invest?
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CMCX/directorate-change/16031140
Difficult one to value, is Peter Crudas any longer up to it?
And today: "Jefferies cuts to underperform. 80p target from 190p."
AceOfClubs
Julie Felix will not be returning after her medical leave. The search for a new CEO has started - is Malcolm Le May available - he seems to have a track record making him suitable to be rewarded for failure.
AceOfClubs
It is painful reading the despairing posts here. I bought in sensing value but Richardson disposed of the value at knockdown prices; I got out at 90p+ for a small profit. Richardson has been in post since 2016 and can't turn this around because he hasn't found a steering wheel yet.
JUST has dropped 63% since the IPO in November 2013, AVIVA 34%, PHNX 27% but at least they pay a dividend. The destruction of JUST shareholder wealth is huge. I have come to the conclusion that the "Bulk Purchase Annuity" market in the UK is a mugs game. If you win the business it means you have offered more than the next fellow and almost certainly overpaid! You then have to be extra clever with your investments to make a profit. Extra clever is not a JUST management forte.
I count myself lucky to have got out unscathed - good luck to all current holders, but I fear you may need a takeover, which may not be at any premium price.
AceOfClubs
OK bobslob, let's start with your choice of 2009 at 24p. With inflation, does 31.8p in 2023 even match match that? I try to let the facts dictate the narrative, sometimes they make uncomfortable reading for the complacent, as I have been with my holding in AVIVA. I remain a seller at 450p.
AceOfClubs
...... but not if you don't look.
"Good solid company with an assured strong and growing dividend each time."
The total dividend to be paid in 2023 of 31.8p doesn't even match what they were paying out in 2008, 34.19p (please do not adjust for inflation, that could prove a fatal shock to the system). In 2020 AVIVA had a major wobble and paid 13p!
The words "assured", "strong" and "growing" should not be used in the same sentence as AVIVA - the facts say otherwise.
AceOfClubs
Below is my post from 29 December 2022 - I think this could get ugly.
"ENTAIN is my largest holding in a UK listed business, largely organic growth from the GVC days; so far so good.
The future is, as always, uncertain. The 50% share in BetMGM is seen as the big growth driver but I am unclear about the relationship with MGMResorts, the other 50% "partner".
In September 2022 MGMResorts acquired the Stockholm listed LeoVegas:
"In outlining the rationale for the deal, MGM said the acquisition of Nasdaq Stockholm-listed LeoVegas will provide a “unique opportunity” for the group to create a scaled global online gaming business. It said the deal will offer strategic opportunities to accelerate growth and product offerings and a commitment to continued profitable growth."
MGMResorts may be a "partner" in the USA but they clearly have no compunction about being a competitor everywhere else.
My personal experience of dealing with executives of US businesses is that they are untrustworthy, 100% focused on self-interest and are your "partner" until the day it suits them not to be. I do hope ENTAIN management is up to the task of protecting the interests of ENTAIN shareholders; but I have my doubts."
AceofClubs
Meanwhile, ouside of the fairground boxing booths:
Alphavalue - AVIVA update:
CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE
p 475 vs 545 -12.9%
The target price has been lowered by 12.9% mainly due to a reduced embedded value valuation and a lower P/Book-based valuation. This has been impacted by Aviva's reduced retained earnings of £3,750m which result from the distribution of the return on capital to ordinary shareholders, as well as the negative income in FY22.
CHANGE IN EPS
2022 : p (45.9) vs 10.4 ns
2023 : p 50.7 vs 60.0 -15.5%
We have cut our EPS forecast following the H1 23 results and the negative investment results which impacted the IFRS net profit for FY 22. Additionally, we have adjusted our EPS estimate for the FY 23. This reflects our belief that the GI lines are still facing inflationary pressures. However, we welcome the positive developments within Aviva Investors. Finally, we reiterate our strong conviction in our FY24 EPS forecast of 63.6p.
CHANGE IN EMBEDDED VALUE
p 416 vs 487 -14.7%
Our embedded value valuation has declined from 484.5p to 415.6p. This reduction is primarily attributed to the lower return on embedded value in FY22, the negative income and our lower FY23 estimates, slightly offset by the expected higher return in FY24. In aggregate, when considering a rolling 5-year timeframe, the average return on embedded value has decreased from 5.9% to 4.6%.
All going the wrong way, but just one view, so please, do not let any of the above curb any natural exuberance.
AceOfClubs
China's liquefied natural (LNG) gas importers are starting up or expanding trading desks in London and Singapore to better manage their growing and diversified supply portfolios in an increasingly volatile global market. The beefed-up trading presence of Chinese importers puts them in direct competition with such global heavyweights as Shell, BP, Equinor and TotalEnergies for a market that the International Energy Agency says doubled in value to $450 billion last year.
About a dozen Chinese companies have been expanding trading teams or adding new desks, with privately run ENN Natural Gas and state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) the latest to plan London offices, and utility China Gas Holdings setting up a Singapore operation, company officials and traders said.
Chinese gas importers have also boosted long-term LNG contracts with Qatar and U.S. suppliers by nearly 50% since late 2022 to more than 40 million metric tons per year (mtpy), with plans to add more volumes from those two countries, as well as from Oman, Canada and Mozambique, traders and analysts said. "We're going to see a paradigm shift in Chinese companies from being total net importers to (being) more international and domestic trading players," said Toby Copson, Shanghai-based head of global trading for Trident LNG. Already, state-run PetroChina, Sinopec, Sinochem Group and CNOOC are actively trading volatility to capitalise on their long portfolios, Copson said.
China vies with Japan to be the world's largest LNG importer, although it's not clear how much surplus or other volumes Chinese companies might have available to trade.
PetroChina International (PCI), trading arm of PetroChina and China's largest gas trader with a 100-strong global team in Beijing and four other international offices, imported or traded about 30 million tons of LNG last year.
Zhang Yaoyu, PCI's global head of LNG trading, declined to comment on the company's traded volume, but said trading was part of the company's overall strategy.
"Supply security is still at the heart of our business activities. Trading capability is one of the enablers ... to help us better deal with market swings," Zhang said.
By 2026, Chinese companies are expected to have contracted LNG supplies of more than 100 million tons a year. That could mean a surplus of up to 8 million tons that year, according to consultancy Poten & Partners, or a deficit of 5 million to 6 million tons based on estimates from pricing agency ICIS.
Either way, China's growing domestic output and more piped gas from Central Asia and Russia provide enough of a fuel base that Chinese gas companies can trade or swap U.S. and other portfolio cargoes when arbitrages open or it makes market sense.
"I could see China becoming a seasonal seller to places like Southeast Asia, South Korea and Japan, as well as into Europe," said Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners. - Reuters.
AceOfClubs
Total Return Results (Annualised): Source: Morningstar
AVIVA 10yr 3.76%, 5yr -0.53%, 3yr 14.68%, 1yr -11.35%
FTSE100 10yr 5.25%, 5yr 3.61%, 3yr 11.21%, 1yr 4.07%
If AVIVA is your investment bag the numbers tell you, you are better off in a FTSE100 tracker.
AceOfClubs
(Reuters) - Wynn Resorts is winding down its online sports betting and iGaming platform, WynnBET, in certain U.S. states due to a lack of clear rules and higher customer acquisition costs, the casino operator said on Friday.
The company said it was ceasing operations in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Louisiana, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The decision to pull out of West Virginia comes a couple of months after it launched WynnBet in the state.
Wynn, however, said operations in Nevada and Massachusetts will continue unaffected, while those in New York and Michigan remain under review.
Wynn Chief Financial Officer Julie Cameron-Doe cited the dearth of iGaming legislation and the continued requirement for outsized marketing spend in online sports betting for the decision.
AceOfClubs
Personally, I would rather be paying for the porridge of the Directors responsible for this criminality rather than suffering a £585M penalty to keep them out of prison. It isn't going to happen,;"justice", like everything else in this country, can be bought if you'r rich enough - particularly if you are using someone else's money.
Just as concerning was an article on US sports betting: the two big beasts are Flutter and DraftKings; BetMGM was very much an "also ran" that hardly got a mention. Flutter is the market leader but DraftKings was judged to have the best technology that was attracting a lot of customers. Customers are apparently very reluctant to switch once they are signed up.
BetMGM is doing much better in online gaming: that is because of the existing customer base linked to MGM Resorts casinos.
AceOfClubs
“We have always told our shareholders that Liquidnet isn’t a cost savings deal, it’s a growth deal, he emphasises there is lots of room for growth." - John Ruskin - CEO Agency Execution TP ICAP - June 2021
"TP ICAP drained by low revenues at Liquidnet" The Times - November 2021.
" Liquidnet division revenue reduced by 6%. " TP ICAP Interim Statement - August 2023.
"The successful execution of our strategy enables us to deliver sustainable shareholder value in the medium term." TP ICAP, CEO Review - Interim Statement - August 2023.
It's an old truism - "If the Americans want to sell you something; it a'int worth buying"
TP ICAP directors won't lose any sleep over it it's been bought with somebody else's money - yours and mine.
AceofClubs
Aberdeen has £500billion assets under management and has failed over the long term to make an acceptable return for either policyholders or shareholders. AVIVA, PHOENIX and LGEN are better, but not by much. The Aberdeen anouncement is all about tinkering at the margins - "Results in H1 2023 evidence the benefit of our diversification strategy with a full six months of ii (H1 2022: one month) making a positive contribution, " - really - what evidence - another name change?
Compare and contrast with the asset managers approach to business in the US - when Steve Schwarzman announced he was going to double AUM at Blackstone in 5 years nobody doubted him, and he will.
The UK economy is held back by the lack of ambition, tempered by the lack of ability, at the UK asset managers. Without some ambition and a more positive approach nothing will change - more decline and decay.
AceofClubs
"The ESG issues are especially relevant for the UK and Aviva and while these policies are being pursued the return for investors will be poor. "
The poor performance at AVIVA and UK companies generally has been around for decades; before ESG policies were even a twinkle in the eye of any company director. Incompetent management, paid well above their ability levels, recruited by fellow cronies is the cause. You only have to read the self-penned eulogies in any public company annual report to read of their self-satisfied brilliance, dedication and sometimes earth moving genius: no matter what the financial result for the year!
I have a friend who runs a recruitment business that focuses on high level company directors, often at PLC's. Despite the outrageous fees they pay even he is sickened by the undisguised cronyism and familiarity that decides who is chosen. Once above the glass ceiling it is a glass floor and almost impossible to fall through. The rewards for failure often exceed the rewards for success. In 2023 Britain that applies not just in business but in all our institutions - Jeremy Hunt Chancellor of the Exchequer? Just look at the state he left the NHS after 6 years in charge. Andrew Bailey Governor of the Bank of England? The reward for abject failure in charge of the Financial Conduct Authority. These people are in postions of power to do enormous good for Britian. I will be be generous and say that they don't have a clue and are just too stupid to recognise their own limitations.
I cannot see this changing - for all its problems the US offers far better investment prospects.
AceofClubs
"It’s not Aviva I have a problem with, the results always looks strong and the dividends are good."
I cannot understand this perception of AVIVA which appears to be widespread. It has been in decline for 30 years and the more recent total returns annualised are 4.82% over 10 years and -0.13% over 5 years (yes that is negative). Only over 3 years has it exceeded the FTSE100 total return, which itself has been abysmal. When will it be understood that the attractive looking yield is the result of a declining share price and not a growing business building its profitability!
Too cheap to sell but I remain a seller at 450p (I wish).
AceofClubs
Whether Burford ever receives any cash from the YPF case is a matter of judgement and opinion. TWT and BW are entitled to theirs but that does not necessarily invalidate others; time will indeed tell.
AceofClubs
So much time and effort on this board calculating the value of the YPF judgement, let alone all that accrued interest. Meanwhile in the real world: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-imf-staff-level-agreement-set-combine-reviews-44-billion-loan-sources-2023-07-28/
Argentina is due to repay a loan instalment of $3.4B to the IMF or default. The last creditors left standing still lending to Argentina are the IMF and China. Argentina can only repay the IMF loan instalment if the IMF extends further credit.
The Argentine economy is suffering 3 digit inflation and cannot secure the imports it needs to function for lack of foreign currency.
Paying any sum in settlement of a claim litigated in New York for the benefit of a claimant who is not even the injured party is not an Argentinian priority now or in the forseeable future. The US government will not want Argentina pressed ever more tightly into the clutches of China.
Whatever the judgements, whatever the rate of interest, Burford will go unpaid.
That "First Rule of Litigation"? "Never Sue A Straw Man" - I hope Bogart didn't ignore it in his rush into court.
AceofClubs
Anybody who thinks the UK is a place to "invest" is likely to be disappointed. I hold 40-50 shares but it has been up to 70-75. When I look down my list of winners they are invariably in the US or Switzerland. The losers are in the UK. My big UK winners, ENTAIN, SOMERO ENTERPRISES, INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GROUP, SHELL, SIRIUS REAL ESTATE, SYLVANIA PLATINUM do most of their business outside the UK. My AVIVA holding is currently 4% underwater: PHNX, BARC, VOD; all picked up when "cheap" are even cheaper now.
The current dividend returns can dazzle, but they can all be cut or even disappear. I cannot think of a single UK listed share on my watchlist, but I even have two in Norway!
We may once have deserved the epithet "lions led by donkeys"; in 2023 "carthorses led by pigs" is more appropriate.
AceOfClubs
There are of course other influences on the DEC share price but I maintain they are all marginal compared to the price DEC achieves for its main product, NG. The hedges provide a floor but they also provide a ceiling. At 1 May 2023: 80% of 2023 production is hedged at $3.79 compared to 80% of 2024 production at $3.30 and 70% of 2025 production at $3.23. Falling prices mean falling profits, every last cent is pure profit. DEC is not a master of its own destiny when it comes to hedging: it is a requirement of the bondholders, for the security of the bondholders. There will be different opinions on hedging: for me it remains a useful tool to boost profitability, which it will in 2023. If it costs you money then leave it alone.
Is DEC currently fairly priced or a gift horse? I don't know the answer but at the moment am not prepared to bet against the market. The half-year results should tell us more.
AceOfClubs