RE: Petro China Partnership Announcement /ajor Renewable Update!9 Mar 2025 12:14
Thoughts are that PC and MATAD will enter a JV, simply put MATAD cannot fund the amount of drilling required to supply Mongolias new refinery requirement of 30,000 bopd, some think that rather than a MATAD/ PC JV there may be a complete buy out of the Heron field, some think it might be a placing which is not as bad as some think as we then keep all profits inhouse, either way MATAD is sitting on a field with 60 million recoverable barrels of oil valued at some 4 billion dollars.
Given Mongolia drilling season lasts for only 7 months (April to Oct) neither Mongolia or PC can afford to wait, also the first 30,000 barrels of oil produced is earmarked by law for the refinery so if PC want to ship oil back to China they need to get drilling ASAP, US sanctions on Iranian oil sales to China are biting, we know Mongolian oil production peaked back in 2015 at around 24,000 bopd but fell to 12,000 bopd by 2020.
My guess is PC need to be ready to start extensive drilling in the Heron field by April or May at the very latest, no doubt Mongolia are putting pressure on them to do so, news must be imminent.
Make no mistake, Wednesdays 49% rise was just the starting pistol being fired, follow this all the way upto and beyond 30p+ in the next 15 to 18 months.
Why the 49% rise, easy, MATADs Heron field (half of TAMSAG Basin) is sitting on a sea of oil and that oil is needed to feed Mongolia’s new refinery which is expected to be completed by March 2026, at present Mongolia’s oil production meets only 30-35% of the oil required by the refinery.
PetroChina own the other half of the TAMSAG Basin, they have been drilling there since 2005 and as of 2021 had 311 producing wells, all the best well prospects on the PC side of the basin have been drilled, many of their earlier wells are coming to end of life, to keep it simple, Mongolia and Petro China need MATADs Heron field.