Member Info for Aberdeenman

Could be the difference between the live price on your shares, and the delayed price shown here.

Aberdeenman

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/02/could-china-replace-australian-iron-ore-with-metal-from-africa

Simandou 5 - 10 years away.

Very positive for Zanaga, even if not mentioned.

Aberdeenman

Interesting to see projections of £10m....£20m.....£50m market cap projections.

Always best being conservative, and I see those projections are.

Always worth discounting what is in the ground by 90%, but then look at annual revenue attributable to AYM from JV's, but bear in mind that other companies only pay AYM through dividends, or from a sale. But then life of mine, and P/E multiple kicks in to uplift share price.

All in all a difficult task to assign a value, both to assets held, and to shares of others assets.

But even in a very conservative analysis, with the news due, good, then this is still worth many multiples of the current SP.

Aberdeenman

Worth noting, that the price of 156p and up, although a long time ago, was actually at a time when the number of shares in circulation was broadly similar, i.e. there has been minimal dilution.

Given inflation those prices are broadly similar to the same amount today, given the tiny amount more shares in circulation, so 156p is not pie in the sky.

Aberdeenman

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-prices-hurtle-to-a-seven-year-high-coking-coal-prices-lag-on-quotas/

Aberdeenman

Could bode well for Zanaga.

Would be great to know what is happening behind the scenes, but I guess we have to wait for the red dot!

Makes a lot more sense to pursue Zanaga, albeit we (and definately I) will not know all the details, complex stuff, lots of moving parts and entities, Governments and individuals involved!

Aberdeenman

Main thing about it is his links to Sosia.

As for news, it is not a steady stream, and things can happen between updates.

Some chunky buying today, that tells you someone is happy ;-)

Aberdeenman

I think the corruption issue is a red herring, China are no strangers to working in Africa, and even western oil companies have been 'creative' in sorting contracts all over Africa.

Personally do not see any problems with palms needing greased to get the project moving.

The issues are Glen and the finance involved, however, with the price of ore and long term prospects, there has never been a better time for Zanaga to come to fruition.

We don't know when, but it will happen.

Aberdeenman

With the upcoming vaccination roll out, there does not seem to be any move to issue 'immunity passports' on a national scale.

So for those that want a normal life and travel, that means getting tested and certified.

ABC-19 test is the companion test for the Oxford vaccine, so expect orders to come.

Aberdeenman

Unfortunately it is endemic in Africa, but not just there, Trump and family have profitted enourmouly from the presidency, and our own shower can be just as bad, with 'consultancy' , directorships, covid contracts for chums, parliamentry expenses (as was) and so the list goes on.

Give people power and a high proportion will find a way to screw the system, if they haven't set the system up to profit in the first place.

Aberdeenman

The brakes may be off, but no-one told the driver you have to put the car in gear!

Aberdeenman

This Julian Higgins guy certainly has been here a while, good luck to him (and us!)

Aberdeenman

For every share in ZIOC, with ZIOC owning 50% of a 2.1B t resource, each 6.2p share has 109 tonnes of ore worth ~$15,000.

Of course, you will have to spend $8 per share in CAPEX ($4.7B total) to get at it, but gives an idea of scale of the opportunity.

And likely 2-4 times the amount of ore present.

After OPEX value of mined ore for each 6.2p share is ~$11,000, or roughly 13,647,000% more than the current share price.

Aberdeenman

only 130.3m shares in public hands, 44.93% of the shares in issue.

bring on that 60p opening after news!!

An early Christmas present would be nice, just which Christmas lol

Aberdeenman

"As from an investing POV, is that the right call, who knows "

We will all have weighed that one up! but look at the price it listed at, and the investment case in macro terms is stronger now, yet the price a fraction of what it was then, even taking into account dilution.

At the moment though, it is an educated punt, no guarantees, but the more you look at it in the round the more I get the feeling that everything is aligning in our favour, and at this price it would be mad not to have a stake, just got to be aware it may never happen or take a long time, but..........those stars are definately aligned.

Even the Covid pandemic, awful as it is for everyone, and has made it more difficult for the company, has made the demand for ore much higher going forward, on massive stimulus programs about to be ushered in around the world.

Aberdeenman

If they get a deal/JV/Finance, I think 30-60 will be the opening price, and certiainly 60p -100p will be about right once full details are known. Once they get the ore moving 300p should be achieved.

A newbie would likely think I am off my head talking about a 5000% rise, but in reality it could be worth far more than that.

I think if we get that deal/JV/Finance, there will be some serious money arriving, the biggest danger to that kind of rise is a buy out, however, after waiting so long I think most would maybe be a bit upset to only get 60p or so, but a 1000% rise would not keep me awake at night.

A lot will depend on what they have to give up to get that JV/deal/finance, but with a 2.1Bt resourse (and likely 2-4 times that amount) and 293m shares for 50% of zanaga, even a 10% final share would be 210mt with an average of $29t opex, so around $60-$100B on a long term ore price after Capex share, using a 90% discount to that and you still get a value of $6-$10B, so a 300p share price (market cap around $1B) is a fraction of the true value, given the resourse is likely many times known and inferred, the final ZIOC share price will be much higher, and they will likely get opex down over time.

Others may well have done a better breakdown than my rough and ready one, but point is in reality over time much much higher than 300p is certain, so an open on 30p-60p on news is just a tiny amount of the actual value.

Aberdeenman

What is interesting, from my perspective, is that if the brakes are truly off (we shall see) then there are two scenarios that come to mind..

1. Shard have finished selling (unlikely)

2. Shard have suspended selling.

Number 2 is the one that interests me, as why would they stop selling?? My reasoning is that the company may have raised enough for now and know that good news is coming that may make the SP a lot higher, so why not give Shard a call and say slow down/take a break from selling for now.

Maybe too early to come to that conclusion, but we shall see what happens this coming week or two.

Aberdeenman

6p breached!

Would be good to get to double figures before news.

In fact who cares just bring on the news!

Aberdeenman

MM's have allowed a tick up, does that mean we are now coming off the ground floor??

Hopefully we never come down again!!

If they get a deal/JV/Buyout/finance this will open bags above current price.

Time is ripe, but will it happen??

Aberdeenman

Got to remember Simandou will start coming online in around 5 years, so there will be more capacity.

If I was in charge in China, I would be looking to get more capacity much sooner to screw Oz and Brazil way before Simandou, so they can start being cut out of the Chinese market before Simandou.

The time is right for Zanaga.

Aberdeenman