Member Info for Aberdeenman

No real profit takers in the low 7's, so may see it strike higher?

Aberdeenman

22 months to get a concentrator plant fully installed onsite.

However, the massive rise that will come will be on a path to realisation/finance being shown.

We are trading at a tiny fraction of the value of the project, simply because it is years and years sitting in the ground without real progress. In addition if the Chinese get their hands on it, I suspect timescales will be reduced due to the number of people and resources they can throw at it.

World spending on infrastructure to recover from Covid will be around for years!

So big gain on news of real progress, my estimate somewhere between 30-60p initially. After hat all depends on the deal, a lot will have to be given up to secure finance, but it is a >Trillion $ resource, so even a small amount is worth hundreds of times current market Cap.

300-500p and I think most would be happy here.

Aberdeenman

Another day closer, to what is hopefully a fantastic PEA, it should mean a big improvement on economics and profitability, albeit it is not a BFS.

Combined with the very good outlook for commodity prices and demand and there is a perfect storm in our favour.

Obviously, we do not know when exactly news will land, but if it were me I would be trying to get it out this week, or at the very latest Monday.

Not many trading days left then before Father Christmas gives us a great Christmas present!

Aberdeenman

I do agree with what you say 99, however, one thing that makes Zanaga more attractive and somewhat detached from the current supply/demand is the high grade of Zanaga ore, and the need for environmental targets to be met.

China is trying hard to clean up its act, and will no doubt participate at Glasgow next year. Add to that the reductions in energy required when using higher grades, then there is not just a premium to be paid for Znanag ore but an imperative to use the higher grade ore over inferior grades.

Aberdeenman

10p will prove a psychological barrier, but with good PEA results we should push through that, so 12p should happen, maybe more, and on further news, if 10p holds then we should see an advance towards 20p.

This could all happen fairly quickly of course, so just a case of holding/adding and waiting!

Aberdeenman

Thanks for supplying the correct link 99.

Not sure what happened, must have hovered over a link, as I had the correct article on screen.

Aberdeenman

And another:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/insights-inteliot/2018/11/29/intels-sameer-sharma-makes-a-brilliant-case-for-the-smart-city/?

Love this line from the atricle:

"China’s challenge with iron ore is that Australia currently supplies 60% of the its requirements and finding a replacement will not be easy."

Really!!!!!!! ;-)

It has to come......

Aberdeenman

And another:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/insights-inteliot/2018/11/29/intels-sameer-sharma-makes-a-brilliant-case-for-the-smart-city/?

Love this line from the atricle:

"China’s challenge with iron ore is that Australia currently supplies 60% of the its requirements and finding a replacement will not be easy."

Really!!!!!!! ;-)

It has to come......

Aberdeenman

Will be interesting to see which way the SP goe, it has been hovering around these levels for a while, but could break out upwards at any time, then again it could fizzle out and retreat, we shall see.

Aberdeenman

Good to see the Chinese getting a DRC transaction done and dusted, means the precedent is recently established.

$550m even if split with GLEN would still work out at 70pps, nowhere near full value, but I doubt many would complain...tooo much...

Aberdeenman

I would imagine, if they are putting together a deal, it will be complex.

Will GLEN be part of it? Will they just sell? or keep a free ride?

Who will finance, Chinese? likely a consortium, so more complexity.

How would the deal work? What value to ascribe to existing parties? New entity, or just an agreement to take out some of the Jumelles shares for $x, what value would that then give Glen & Zioc shares at time of deal?

Many moving parts, but with the outlook for ore prices it may well be in hand.

Fingers crossed, and hopefully 30-60p if they get a deal off the ground.

Value is realised when there is a clear path to monitise the asset

How much dilution though that is the question, however it gets sliced and diced, I still think 30-60p on news of a deal, more than I thought previously due to the commodities supercycle just starting!

Aberdeenman

Looking forward to more news this month.

Definitely looking like double figures are coming!!

Aberdeenman

"Why isn't the iron ore price reflected in the share price?"

Same reason a lost £10 note is worthless if lying on the ground, it only has value when it has the ability to be used.

FWIW I DO think there will be movement on this at some point, there is too much lined up on all fronts for this to be overlooked.

Only thing that is in question is when!

Aberdeenman

5.4 just paid, and I think some unreported buys, looks like the bounce is on, as I said, oversold.

Aberdeenman

I agree Brentharg.

I think it is now oversold, somewhere between 6-7.5 would be a fair price at the moment, given the confusion,.

But after the PEA's we shall see, but they are expected to be very good, and the outlook for commodities has not been this good for a long time.

Interestingly, I was speaking to a group of miners this morning from Sweden, they are in a very bouyant mood due to the commodities prices.

Aberdeenman

Whatever the rights and wrongs of LIM value, I agree with timetomultibag, there has been no speeding ticket. They are obliged to issue one if there is an unexplained gain, the NOMAD would have insisted.

Therefore there is an underlying reason why the NOMAD and company believe they can just justify a large rise prior to news.

Think on.....

Aberdeenman

Thank you BOJO,

Many will have been worried by the drop today, but it is normal. some are just in for a quick profit, especially those that are pushing on twitter.

But for those in for the medium to longer term (please accept my apologies the very LTH's here!) then the rewards will be much larger.

Aberdeenman

Thanks Rampant,

Just to add to that, in larger projects that have a mix, they have a choice of selling the higher grade ore earlier, in higher CAPEX phases, and sell the lower grade when market allow.

In a smaller project/resource, the choice may be much more limited, and therefore the long term economics much less attractive. LIM is a larger resourse. You will also note in the article from Rampant, Sweden is generally higher grade.

Aberdeenman

Another thing that is important, but don't think I have seen mentioned much on here, is concerning the ore grade.

Yes it commands higher prices, but this is only part of the picture, there is a big push on in China and elsewhere to use high grade ore, as it reduces pollution, this means lower grades are in less demand by high grades will command ever higher prices.

That in turn means high-grade projects are much more viable with poor grades may be less attractive over time, and life of mine is important!

Aberdeneman

Thanks to 99icecream over on ZIOC

https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-iron-ore-fortescue/update-2-australias-fortescue-expects-robust-demand-for-steel-next-year-idUSL1N2IP06A

Aberdeenman