Jameson Land: Risks - Rewards19 May 2026 18:00
Jameson Land venture is a risky business. It's an exploration story with unproven reserves, and therefore inherently scary. The gamble could pay off BIG, but the risks are HIGH! That said, Robert Price, CEO of Greenland Energy Company (GLND), made this comment in a recent Q&A article (link in Part II of this note): “We are going to drill in five different formations on just the first well. There is a HIGH probability of success." - Unquote
We may all have our own opinions on the matter, and I have mine. In my view, if (I repeat ‘if’) drilling from the first two exploration wells confirms a potential commercial oil find in terms of both grade and quantity, the reward would be HUGE for shareholders with the share price rising by MANY MULTIPLES of 1p. If there is no commercial find, we are then talking of UNTHINKABLE pain for shareholders. That said, what are the MAIN risks before hitting the jackpot with the first two wells, assuming we do? I see 4 MAIN risks, 3 of them during the pre-drilling phase and 1 from the results of drilling. I have assigned a subjective rating to each of the four risks.
1. FUNDING (Pre-drilling phase - No Risk): GLND has secured the necessary funds for drilling the first two wells. 80 Mile has a free carry for them.
2. REGULATORY APPROVAL (Pre-drilling phase - Low Risk): Greenland government has already given approval for equipment mobilisation. It is therefore unlikely they would refuse approval for drilling.
3. FIELD OPERATIONS (Pre-drilling and actual drilling phases - Medium Risk): This covers all the activities associated with mobilising equipment to the drilling site and then actual drilling. Each of the two wells will take circa 30 days to drill to a depth of circa 3,500 metres in harsh climate and difficult terrain. It will therefore be a complex operation. However, industry veterans with Arctic experience will be conducting the field operations (Halliburton, IPT Solutions and Stampede Drilling). I have therefore taken this to be a positive factor in my assessment. Nevertheless there will be challenges.
4. DISCOVERY (Drill results phase - High Risk): What are the chances of the results of drilling the first two wells confirming the presence of commercial oil? Recent Independent assessment by the US-based oil field specialists, Sproule ERCE has estimated 13.03 billion barrels in Jameson Land. The same report also puts the Chance of Success (CoS) at 20% (1 in 5). See Notes in Part II of this post. I regard the "Drill results phase", confirming the presence of commercial oil, to be the riskiest of all the phases I have identified above.
Continued....