Member Info for 99icecream

China commits to raft of carbon-intensive coal and steel projects in 2021

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2021/08/china-commits-to-raft-of-carbon-intensive-coal-and-steel-projects-in-2021/

China's new five year plan will have a large impact on what will happen in the iron ore market going forward. Among many other changes, there is a call for Chinese companies to invest new foreign iron ore mines (to reduce iron ore prices and reliance on Australian supply).

The key participants in any Chinese bid for iron ore mines will be the steel producers, simply because it is their interest to create more supply (and hence lower iron ore prices). At Simandou, Baowu Steel (the worlds largest producer @ approx 145 MT per annum) is a key player in getting the Simandou project moving.

However, it would seem that "Simandou North" (or 1&2) is still stuck in contractual discussions with the intended rail builders (China Railways Construction Company):

https://www.theafricareport.com/86786/guinea-china-negotiations-turn-complicated-over-simandou-iron-ore-project/

At "Simandou South" (or 3&4) a group led by Baowu Steel is intended to buy Chinalco's stake. This recent RTZ job advert states that:-

"The project is being developed by Simfer, which comprises a joint venture between Rio Tinto, Chinalco (Aluminum Corporation of China) and the Government of Guinea."

https://www.careermine.com/job/1997646/principal-mining-engineer/

So the purchase of Cinalco's stake by Baowu Steel has not yet happened. Possibly the awaits RTZ's decision on what they intend to do at "Simandou South".

The way things evolve at Simandou will have a substantial impact upon Zanaga - who will buy it and what they will pay.

If Simandou ends up costing significantly more than budgeted or takes significantly longer to deliver iron ore in quantity or fails to start at all -- then it makes Zanaga more attractive.

IMHO etc.

China wants to curb steel production. Some say it’s ‘virtually impossible’

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/china-wants-to-curb-steel-production-some-say-its-virtually-impossible.html

Strangely reassuring - I am happy with that!

ZIOC is different to other resources inventments I have seen or owned. I can understand the frustration this causes. However, I have always seen the differences as a huge positive. If this were a "normal" investment, you might expect ZIOC to be much more explicit about the strategy being followed by Glencore, and this would be supported by "research and valuations" (aka ramping) by one of the brokers. If this were the case we could currently be trading at £1 to £2, rather than 5p to 10p (IMHO).

I would rather be buying ZIOC at a low price based on my own opinion of the potential value.

BHP records biggest year of iron ore exports as prices boom

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bhp-records-biggest-year-of-iron-ore-exports-as-prices-boom-20210719-p58b5c.html

Iron ore is in a bull market — and it won’t run out of steam soon, says Goldman

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/goldman-sachs-on-iron-ore-bull-run-outlook.html

26,116,208 shares is currently 2.68% of the issued shares so the buyer will not necessarily need to declare an interest (depending on any prior holding).

The issues with Cameroon would appear to predate those with Congo (e.g. see below). Sundance did not have the resources to implement its plans in Congo / Cameroon and failed to bring in (Chinese) partners or sell the project (to the Chinese). After several extensions Cameroon stated that the Sundance licence had ended. Sundance then faced having its shares delisted (for lack of funds) and in late 2020, just before the shares were delisted Congo confiscated the Sundance licences in Congo.

Sundance intends taking both Congo and Cameroon to arbitration. Cameroon for not issuing and exploitation licence in 2009 and Congo for taking away its licences in 2020.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/sundance-in-limbo-while-government-deliberates-on-cameroon-iron-ore-project/

Don't forget that the situation in Cameroon is different to Republic of Congo. In Cameroon, Sundance had a 15 year licence that expired. In Congo a 25 year licence that was confiscated.

Chinese steel, metals price rise curbs 'short term game' with limited impact

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/062221-chinese-steel-metals-price-rise-curbs-short-term-game-with-limited-impact-glencore-ceo

Glencore’s Glasenberg Says China Can’t Cool Commodities for Long

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/glencore-s-glasenberg-says-china-can-t-cool-commodities-for-long/46727816

Data contradicts accusations of iron ore manipulation in China

https://www.arabnews.com/economy/data-contradicts-accusations-iron-ore-manipulation-china

Xi Jinping eyes closer China, Congo Republic cooperation

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-06-21/Xi-Jinping-holds-phone-talks-with-Congo-Republic-s-president-11hfKLu6kcU/index.html

China agrees to reschedule $2.4 bln Congo Republic's debt

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/1621674-china-agrees-to-reschedule-24-bln-congo-republics-debt---minister

Xi calls for greater development of China-Congo Republic relations

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/21/c_1310019998.htm

The remainder is expenditure on the Port and the Mine in about equal amounts. Rail $8Bil + Port $3Bil + Mine $3 Bil = $14 Bil. Later this was revised to $ 16 Bil Total.

The budget for the Simandou rail line is $8 Billion ($5 Billion for the first track, $3 Billion for the second). Discussions among the partners continue about what specification of rail infrastructure can be provided within that budget.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1156781/economie/simandou-ces-details-qui-compliquent-les-negociations-avec-les-chinois/

In normal circumstances you might be correct in assuming that China might need to include a free SEZ or Port as a way to enable a Zanaga deal. However, with the Economy in such a mess, Nguesso will be desperate for a Zanaga deal to go ahead regardless. You cannot run a dictatorship if you can't reward your supporters / military.

This paper has been updated multiple times each time adding more detail. There are two particularly interesting aspects.

1. ".... reports the project is at a standstill as disagreements have arisen over the rail infrastructure’s proposed budget."

2. Comments from Mark Eames (formerly in project development in Africa with Xstrata and Glencore) - “In my opinion, the people who talk about Simandou have absolutely no idea of the practical challenges or the real issues involved in developing that resource.”

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/mega-mining-project-that-could-cripple-australia/news-story/3c987ede1f5d0d06c24aed974596756d