Member Info for 99icecream

Reporting of larger trades is delayed. I bought at 25,000 @ 9:10.

Slight exaggeration maybe ? ZIOC came to the market in late 2010.

To be clear, I'm part of the squeezed middle too.

IMHO we have been divided into 3 groups of investors, by this deal. I assume the alternative was a conventional share issue with warrants attached. I would have had no issue with that offer (provided all investors were treated equally).

So the groups are:

1. Retail investors who wouldn't or couldn't subscribe to a fund raising. They are diluted, but would have been anyway.

2. Large Investors part of Red Arc Inc, who would do better out of this deal.

3. The "Squeezed Middle", anyone who would take part in the fund raising and is not part of Red Arc Inc.

Note that group 3 probably includes some significant investors; or are they all involved?

What time is this presentation ?

This is the problem with the proposed deal. To make it simple assume its all done at the company level.

So, initially $25m (£18.25m) is paid for 20%, this would add 208m shares (to the existing 832m) equating to a price of 8.77p each. Not so bad.

Later $125m (£109.5m) is paid to bring ownership up to 87.5%, this would add 5,616m shares (to the existing 1,040m) equating to a price of 1.62p each.

Please check my maths, I would be happy to be proved wrong.

Two possibilities:

1) Its a rip off, done at the subsidiary level as it could not be voted through at the company level.

2) Its designed to get a better deal from a Strategic Investor, than they have been offered so far.

Could I suggest that you consider the current Macro Situation. We have Global Super-Powers competing for Critical Metals upon which their respective Industries (and Military Machines) depend. In the case of Iron and Steel China as the world largest consumer (and exporter) feels the most vulnerable. It must have as much control as it can on this these metals (see below Pascale Masot's excellent [2024] book on the subject).

When Zanaga came to the market in 2010 the market cap was £436m (£1.56 x 28m shares). As Zanaga then owned 50% of the shares the entire project was valued at £873.6.

Today the Market Cap is about £74.9 m (a 91% discount to the 2010 value), whilst the value of the project has increased substantially due to Zanaga being able to produce DRI grade Iron Ore etc.

I don't know if we will get any news at all in the next week, but it can't be far off.

https://global.oup.com/academic/product/chinas-vulnerability-paradox-9780197771396?cc=gb&lang=en&

The "cure" deadline foy Syrah was moved to 16 March 2026 - see ASX announcement on 19 January 2026.

"Tesla has the right to terminate the Offtake Agreement if final qualification of Vidalia AAM is not achieved by 9 February

20262. The parties have agreed to amend the Offtake Agreement to extend this date to 16 March 2026, subject to the

consent of the United States Department of Energy to such amendment."

1Kiwi - Indeed so, there is a large amount of Carnalilite in many places including Kola (where its in a seam underneath the Sylvinite, Until recently this was seen as a poor source of Potash (lower yield). However, Emmerson (see below) and others have found good ways of using Carnalilite, to produce other useful chemical, in addition to Potash (such as Struvite, a slow release fertilizer that commands a premium price).

Sylvinite: - A mixture of Sylvite [ KCl ] and Halite [ NaCl ]

Carnallite: Hydrated Potassium Magnesium Chloride, [ KCl·MgCl2·6(H2O) ]

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EML/scoping-study-on-breakthrough-new-processing-route-k6wv2789hdm2uzy.html

The RNS 27th Feb 2025, gives you the key numbers for valuation, based upon £/$ current exchange rates and number of shares outstanding you can get to an NPV(10) number of about 24p per share [for the funded and ready to go number] and about £1.05 a share in 4 years [ once everything is built and production is begun].

BTW this is just the Kola Project, there is a great deal of Potash, besides which would only add to the value.

What is actually offered by the two bidders is unknown, as is what bid Kore would accept. There is a HUGE RISK an agreement cannot be reached, and I suspect that is the reason for the current low share price.

Zanaga will need money for Capex (say $2 Billion). The standard deal would be 70% from Debt (provided by Chinese development banks if they build it) and 30% from Equity or Royalty/Off-Take (Note that Kore Potash - KP2 is going the Royalty route).

I suggest that the 30% Zanaga agree to will depend upon who the chosen Strategic Investor is. If its a miner (.e.g. Fortescue) then it will be shares. If its China (in the form of the Chinese State Entity - China Baowu Steel) then it will be a Streaming Deal (i.e. they will secure off-take at a discount to market price).

Note that China Baowu Steel is not just Government Owned it is an arm of the Government charged with managing production and resources in the Iron and Steel sector. This is why it has adopted a prominent role in the Simandou Project.

Sorry, End January 2025 Potash Price was $302.

The World Bank Reference price for Potash for End January 2026 was published recently. (Reference is the FOB Price in Brazil)

The End January 2026 Price was $366, this is up 21% since End January 2025 ($352) and up 4% since the Formal Sale Process started (End Oct 2025 price = $352)

Guitarsolo. Agree small investors were badly treated, we did not get the warrants and also we had no time to sell other shares to buy BRES shares in the offer.

BTW - When Kazera Global (KZG) recently (26/11/25) launched a retail offer, small investors were offered shares AND warrants, on the same terms as the earlier Institutional Subscription and we were given time to respond. So it is possible to treat retail investors fairly.

Guitarsolo. 15th April 2025 after the market was shut we were told that funds had been raised (at 3p each + warrant at 4.5p) and we could participate in the retail offer. Only problem was the market was shut and we had to respond that evening. I was lucky that I had spare cash in my account, so I bought shares at 3p each (no warrants). Next day at 8:00 am we got the allocation announced, retail investors got 100% of what we applied for.

Shandong Xinhai Mining Technology & Equipment Inc. of China would certainly have all the kit you might need and hence could be a useful "Earn In" partner for Arcadia. Could do a similar deal with Kazera, if they are prepared to keep the asset.

Arcadia have replaced Heibi (HeBei Xinjian Construction) with Hong kong Xinhai Mining Services Limited (a subsidiary of Shandong Xinhai Mining Technology & Equipment Inc. of China). Xinhai will build a processing plant and conduct further exploration at Swanson.

No mention of Kazera or the Tantalite Valley Mine.

"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya..."

Clint Eastwood had the best lines

For those that missed my respective on Zanaga on (8 December Post):-

To me (having held this share 8 years+) it comes down to the following questions?

1. Do you think that BaoSteel will want to secure the DRI Grade Iron Ore from Zanaga?

2. Do you think that the plan Zanaga have will maximise the value of the asset?

3. Do you think that developing the asset rather than selling it now will maximise the value ?

4. Do you think that all the "celebrity" investors give you extra confidence in this investment ?

If you can answer yes to the above, then to use Catbert's analogy you have a good "hand" of cards.