The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I think wondering what’s going on with his investment at PRD, it’s easier to throw stones is it not, putting down cold hard cash in this investment malarkey not so easy. We each make our own way, good luck by the way with PRD, it’s been on my watch list for sometime.
If Jim is virtually always being right he must be a very wealthy man. Perhaps he could lend me a tenner until the Giro from Australia arrives. Anyway good luck to him.
I am biased, which could be a whole other conversation about sunk costs, confirmation bias blah blah hence I don't actually mind if someone holds a polar opposite opinion, even if just an opinion without substance as it gives me pause to question myself. However I still think if all the info we have is weighed up and we discount the conspiracy theories, PANR has every chance of coming good. I am actually encouraged by the silence from the company and usual suspects, it would indicate to me that something more likely than not is going on (but then I am biased ha). Louis et al might well be proven right at the end of the day, this is a risky old game, M. Jordan said something like 'I can except failure, everyone fails, just can't except not trying'. Well I am trying, if it blows up I will have another go, be interested to know what you are trying at Louis.....actually I am not, just being polite, this is just a BB after all .
"no interest to date" I am not sure that can be said as an unequivocal truth. The board did advise us that they had turned an offer down, either true, untrue or somewhere in-between, for each to decide.
I think if we ignore the previous offer then what can be said is "no notified interest to date'. We don't know, I personally hope that the board are working their butts off for the benefit of shareholders. I am disappointed that the data room has not been declared open, however as I do not know what is involved in as much as data (amount of) coordination is concerned, I am willing to accept it is not particularly straight forward and would rather it is done correctly with the best chance of success. Not comfortable with the present situation at all but remain long.
The problem for both 88E and PANR re positive wire line and cores is that there is no chance of a flow test until next winter at the Hickory well. So if the imminent wire line is good there will no doubt be a positive impact on both companies share price, then I suspect the price will fall back due to the wait until the ice pad etc are started up after the summer. So at best a trading opportunity.
My view is PANR is treading water at the moment, the only thing on the horizon which I see as getting the SP moving is a really good flow from the Alkaid 2 well of the SMD zone or a farminee buying in. We aren't broke but have limited capital for manoeuvring. I think we are at the pulling the rabbit out of the hat point.
I remain convinced of the resource we have and am long, it is a perennial problem for junior resource companies, having seen some of my investments gobbled up by China's Road and Bridge efforts, I made some money these but no where near true value which is very frustrating. All in my view and probably stating the bleeding obvious.
Well done you, now just avoid becoming a trapped bull and keep an eye on the spread and you'll be alright.
I suspect at the webinar, at any rate it will be reported as more data collected from the flow test. I think if it was a present problem it would have been reported in the figures already notified to shareholders. I don't believe in conspiracies as a rule so if people think the data is being withheld on purpose by the BoD then good luck, we live in a country where we can think and say what we want...........or do we.......
People can write what they want on BB's, I personally don't give a crap. It's actually a lot simpler than most are giving credit for. Louis holds a grudge, if you look back through the relevant posts you will find the start of it, somebody said something that put his nose out of joint, that is all.
Pantheon were not the operator in Texas. They will have to circulate the kill fluid out of the hole, they will bring the flow on in a controlled manner through a variable choke I suspect. I reckon anything up to a week to establish a stable flow. They might well shut-in for 24 hours to see how the downhole pressure stabilises at some point, probably when most of frack fluid is recovered. At any rate we should get stable flow information soon. The important bit, in my view, which will take time is the the reduction curve, hence the 6 to 9 month flow test. So I think another RNS in a week to 10 days, if all well further news down the road (all regarding flow).
Jay has expressed huge confidence, this surely is an agreed view across the board. If this is some game they are playing to mug punters I doff my hat, but to believe that you would have to think that they were all exceptional conmen. (I accept conmen exist but usually in the singular).
My assumption was; rig over the well pull tubing and packer, move rig, CT unit clean out, move CT unit, rig run tubing and packer, rig demobbed ready to move down the road, CT unit back over well and flow test.
Nice explanation Marmaris, I have zero experience of land rigs. Done my fair share of making up and breaking down 15,000 foot of drill string in the mouse hole. Looking at the photos I thought the pipe shed looked a little small and figured that they would put the tubing in there, of course taking up more room than drill pipe. Figured using CT would be easier. More used to big old pipe decks on semi's and pneumatic pipe racking systems on drillships.
Anyway this all hinges on the drop off rate, it is going to take a little while to get that, (in my opinion).
Also they have to lay the tubing down (inside?). Would make handling stands of pipe difficult, making up and breaking down.
Cost? Save rental on drill string. I realise the coil tube will have a cost. Confused.com
I think they did a deal to leave the rig on the pad as it is headed South to drill for 88E in a few weeks time.
Nice photo, it might well be on site, but tweet says in the yard about to head off to Alkaid 2.
The oil has been proved I think. The news we now need is the sustainability of the flow. That news is a few months down the road. I for one am prepared to wait.
The radius of the bend from vertical to horizontal is such that tubing, casing and drill pipe can bend/flex around the corner. It is not like a sudden right angle, the change in direction will happen (at a guess) over several thousand feet.
The tubing will be pulled when the well is killed. This is done by circulating out all hydro carbons and replacing the contents of the hole with fluid heavy enough to provide enough of an over pressure (head) to the formation pressure. The work over rig will run drill pipe, circulate the sand out then rerun the production tubing. Or something like that.
So whilst I have worked in the oil patch, it was not a full career and was back in the 70’s and 80’s, all offshore mainly floaters. I worked on the Beryl A, each rig drilled something like 10 wells. They just skidded the rig. You know this of course. I don’t see why similar cannot be done on land. MAmaris worked land rigs maybe he could comment.
200 barrels of oil per 4000 lateral would be 500 per 10,000 ft lateral (never mind condensate etc). 4 wells (could be more why not) per pad, 2000 bpd (never mind condensate etc). Drill costs would be less per well (rig up rig down etc). Sure, depends on sustained flow rates, but as yet we don’t have accurate flow figures until work over done. Just saying.
No doubt the well is now flowing hydrocarbons. How much is the 64 thousand dollar question of course. We all want the breakout RNS, I sort of worry that maybe, half the lateral remains blocked off with sand and the figures, when published, whilst good, will not ignite the share price, as it will not be perceived as a gusher. Glass half empty moment, happy to wait and if required eat my hat.
To be fair I don’t think he is saying this is what Pantheon have done. I have never seen what he is describing other than dropping balls down the pipe. I am more running a thorny bush down the hole, with a tamper made up by the welder, then chucking pebbles after it followed by dropping cement on top and hope it holds. .