Member Info for 3littlepigs

In the investor presentation Art said they hoped to get the draft reserves report last week, and to review it this week. Therefore many are expecting a RNA this week. Personally I’m expecting it next week. Why would you issue such an important report into a low volume Jubilee weekend?

I’ve read a lot of rubbish on here today about the definition of stricken and vacated. The more important question is whether the winter drilling rig has heated seats and cup holders. And a flat panel showing the ice hockey!

There’s a lot of detail in the note. It’s worth the one off fee to access it. However, it errs hugely to the conservative side with only 2.8k bopd estimated for 2023. I’d be disgusted if the company didn’t do double that next year.

Will42 - in my experience warrants don't automatically get triggered as you move through a price point. The warrant holder has to actively exercise their warrants, pay their money and then their shares get issued. Therefore it isn't true that as we go through the 24p barrier that we will suddenly get flooded by new shares. Most warrant holders will want to see a sustained move up in the share price before they exercise. Therefore we could be up near a pound before the warrants are issued. To say the upside here "has a lid on it" is, in my opinion, misleading.

I can’t send a copy as I’d be in breach of their copyright but it says the unrisked NAV is £1.55 a share made up of £0.32 P2, £0.36 development upside, £0.87 exploration upside for deep well potential. The risked NAV is £0.60 made up of the same items: £0.28, £0.22, £0.11.

I have quite a big holding here that I’ve picked up over time and every month I put my work pension contribution in here too. Yesterday was the first time I have ever experienced NT to buy.

Only 14 posts so far today (10 are in green boxes for me). This is a pleasant change!
Roll on Ryder Scott.
Have a good day.

£2.87

R_Dunc - I would expect the auditors to only permit income generated from 1 March to be revenue. The costs that we bore for CUDA upto 28 Feb, net of CUDA's rev share up to 28 Feb, creates a receivable on the COPL books which will then be treated as part of the consideration paid for the CUDA assets. It all has the same cash effect, but I'm afraid the P&L won't look as nice. But from 1 March onwards, I agree that we should be showing a profit as we have more revenue, at the same gross margin, but no increase in overhead, so higher net margin. This is the benefit of scale and the reason the CUDA WI was so important to get.

Out of interest, can anyone find the sweepstake we had going on the purchase price. Pretty sure I said $30m and was pretty close to the mark.

I'm very excited about the next month.

Ourjambo: not sure why I see a different number to you, but I get 54,766 barrels for March (link below). I searched by operator. An extra 3k barrels unhedged at $100 is useful change, or an extra 10% in revenue.

Regards, 3lp

http://pipeline.wyo.gov/AllOpcoProd.cfm?oops=ID8708&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769

COPL is currently in discussions with a US bank to enter into a conventional RBL to replace the current facility as well as a revolver for operating flexibility

Syndication of this proposed facility is being solicited to two European Banks lending to the energy sector through a Paris based debt advisor

63m in 4 days. That’s a third of the company’s stock, no wait, a quarter of the... no wait, it’s a fifth of the company’s stock ;)

jiddy - copy the whole link into your browser and click go! honestly!

Just reading further through the broker note:

Fy22 projected cash flow from operations post w/c (this is before interest, capex and acquisitions): CAD$35.6m

In fy23 this rises to CAD$43m

Apply a 10x ebitda multiple to that and see how some institutions might value us.

But to add, I agree with you, robroy, they will have the discussions for long term RBL well advanced and the bride loan provider will know this.

I’m a corporate treasurer. No one wants a bridging loan. You take one because the terms of your other loans or the position on closing your deal precludes you using anything else. Therefore they are normally on poor terms as the lenders holds all the cards.

In my view, this was a great deal and the next 3 months will see the share price re-rate significantly.

“Our post-tax NPV12 of its [CUDA’s] 2P reserves is 75p/sh unrisked”

This takes their unrisked NPV12 of COPL to £1.55 per share and risked to £0.60 per share.

From RNS:

· Complete the consolidation of available interests in the Wyoming assets.

· Re-finance COPL America Inc's credit facility to reduce the Company's cost of capital for which the Company is working closely with its bankers and advisors.

· Optimize and increase oil production at the operated Barron Flats Shannon Unit miscible flood.

· Commence Phase 1 of the delineation of the Barron Flats Deep Oil discovery.

· Maintain the Company's ESG operating credentials.

Objective 1 complete. I’m expecting a CPR before the AGM that enables objective 2 before end of May being a reserves based lending. That would be objective 2 ticked off. In my opinion the share price would then increase quickly as new lending would come with a development plan and the scale of what we’ll be producing by Christmas will be enormous. I’m expecting us to produce 30k barrels a day by then. Pie in the sky? Work out how many of our 16 wells would need to be horizontal and producing 2k per day to achieve that when we already have targets of 7k from the Shannon.

Today’s deal marks the second leg of COPL becoming a grown up company. Yes, I know you don’t like the placing. But we have 85% of all the assets, can obtain proper financing, can finally ramp up production of the Shannon, and prove up our billion barrel find. When we produce 7k barrels per day from Shannon by July and then add another 10k - 15k (conservative) per day from frontier we’ll all be very glad we get to keep 85% not 58% of the revenue. They key here is scale and we now have that.

kdogg - the RNS says that their priorities for Fy22 will be 2) "Re-finance COPL America Inc's credit facility to reduce the Company's cost of capital."

If they have a business case to drill 16 wells that produce, on average, 2,000 bopd, then they should be able to borrow the funds to build the wells. Naturally, any lender will expect a portion (say, 1m barrels a year) of the production to be hedged and don't expect that to be at $100 a barrel, it will derived using a forward contract price for oil that (I'm not an oilman) must be closer to $70 or $80.

All that said, with a good plan of development presented to investors and lenders, the share price should be many multiples higher so a placing, if one were needed, wouldn't be as dilutive. Personally I prefer the debt rout and would hate to see an equity raise.