Member Info for 3littlepigs

My favourite comment of the day from NoEasy:

“ Next RNS will be to say that he sold the whole lot to Exxon at Christmas!”

I'm not much of a chartist but every now and then I get my Elliott Wave tool out on the IG site and have a crack at drawing lines and putting numbers 1 to 5 in odd places as well as the odd a-b-c. I did this a few days ago as the 1 hour chart from 7th Jan looked like it had 5 nice waves up into 18th Jan when we hit 40p. I called this wave 1 - who knows! We then pulled back in wave 2 to 29p on 28th Jan and then put in what I'm calling wave 1 of wave 3 to 37p on 2 Feb. This displayed a nice 5 wave structure. I then drew an abc, with the c being 33p, which we've hit today. For me this is the wave 2 complete and we now proceed in a wave 3 of 3 to the 1.618 extension at 67p.

This may be a lot of old nonsense, but compared to most of the tosh written on here, I think it's fabulously scientific!

You mean a pre-RNS RNS?!!

YM, mathematically there is a price at which CUDA’s WI isn’t worth buying. I haven’t done that calculation, but if I were to I’d do a net present value calculation of the cash flows I’d generate from the extra WI and compare it to the purchase price of that WI. As I say I haven’t done that calculation, but if P2 reserves are 400mbbl, at £10 a barrel in the ground, the CUDA WI is worth a huge amount and should be snapped up at any discount offered. I agree it uses up cash that could be put to use drilling wells but the acquisition of the WI would be so accretive to shareholders I don’t see how you wouldn’t but it and then leverage the asset to fund the well development.

If I were Art I would have a draft CPR in hand asap and would immediately be off to the reputable O&G lenders for a $200m loan at an interest rate of 5%. BMO or RBC must be banging down his door with debt packages that can make the company.

With that $200m I would buy CUDA for up to $50m and with the balance I would build well after well after well. I would then have 85% of a huge cash cow. I wouldn't be surprised, in fact I expect, to hear that Art has used the 1Bn oil find to refinance. I would also expect (you can see I expect a lot!!) for the CPR RNS to include the announcement of a new debt package and a plan of development. That would be massive.

All IMHO. DYOR etc etc.

I’ve set it at £50!!!

A few months ago it was suggested that we PIs could stop the MMs from “borrowing” our shares to sell short by setting limit orders to sell at £5. I duly set my limit order and am probably, single handedly, responsible for this rise in the share price rise. Forget the 1.9bn barrels ;)

Anyway, I just wanted to mention that I have removed my limit order as I don’t want to wake up one morning to a CPR, see the share price at £10 and find my limit sell got filled at £5. Given what we have others who also set a limit sell may want to revisit that order. Obviously my removed limit sell triggered the fall from 38p to 33p these last 2 days ;)

GLA

Noob - your rentokill comment has had me in fits of laughter and I've had to leave my desk as everyone was looking at me!

Stanflan, you caused this mornings pull back. They were looking to stop you out then take it up!!! :)

I can't comment on whether a company can be taken out of administration by the creditors that filed for the bankruptcy, but in terms of TradingLad's question about the value: the administrator is responsible for realising the assets at the highest possible value and in some cases, if they can turn the company around as a going concern then they do so. Therefore, there isn't a defined value for the CUDA assets or business; it is what you can fetch from willing buyers.

Supposing the lenders did withdraw their bankruptcy filing, they would surely need to pump even more debt into CUDA to make it solvent and able to keep up with the investment needed in the FedDeep discovery. That is a big ask.

We shouldn't know if Majors are assessing us as a take over opportunity, or that any offers have been made unless or until the board feel they are able to recommend an offer to shareholders. In most normal cases you'd be looking for a board to accept an offer of 30% over the VWAP of the past 30 trading days, but such a measure is nonsense for COPL. The Board would need to consider the value of the company's assets and the net present value of the income they feel they can deliver from those assets over a period (say 5 years). In our case, as shareholder, I would vote against a bid of anything less than £3 per share.

Great news today. I, too, agree with the comment below about Art's interview; he's rubbish at being interviewed. It's like he hasn't even thought about what he's going to say. Where is his head of investor relations and his PR team? Please prep him better and be clear on what you want to get out of an interview.

I've been here for 18 months and I'll continue to stick with it.

Tiburn

Nice feedback on the website. I wholehearted agree.

Have you sent your comments to Cathy or joe@yellowjerseypr.com ?

Regards
3lp

OMG. We finally have a website worthy of the 21st century. I can’t believe I have such a smile on my face, but it seems like this could be the turning point. Or maybe that’s my 3 lagers and 2 Proseccos talking!

I see this as good news because it implies, if our debt facility isn’t increasing, that we can’t be paying much more than $20m to $30m for CUDA. I think that’s a bargain in the long run.

I was looking back through the RNS to see what was said about Nigeria agreement being extended until the end of the month but can’t find the relevant report. Can someone point me in the right direction please.

My hope is that he’s negotiating a CUDA deal or nearby leases to FedDeep where the release of our own data will prejudice that negotiation. Therefore, it’s in our interests for him to keep radio silence.

I think I need to change my name to evertheoptimist!

There will be some that will reduce this profit due to the hedges in place. They would be right to do so from a cash conversion perspective, but from a P&L perspective we should note that the mark-to-market loss on the hedges has already been accrued in full in the Q2 results (take a look at the SEDAR filing and you'll see a $10.868m loss). Theoretically, as we produce the oil that has been hedges and recognise income at the hedged price we will also see a release of the £10.868, derivative liability. Therefore the profits of future periods will equate to the profit earned on sales at the prevailing WTI price, not the hedged price.

For many this is gobbledegook I know and it is just accounting! But I just wanted to hi-light this fact for those that are creating forward looking P&Ls. From memory, there was no commentary on this board of this derivate loss when the Q2 results were released.

What’s WTM at? (West Texas Marmite)

I haven’t been doing any posting on here recently as there’s nothing worth saying. I’m just waiting on the drill results, then the q3 results showing how profitable we are, then a CUDA announcement. All to come in the next month. The market won’t be able to ignore solid growing profits and bottom line cash conversion.