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agree. but I think they will sell for the right price or would want a JV to get income from this side now. BHP posted record profit the other day due to iron ore prices increase, so GLEN is also under pressure to do higher margins, and cant imo have a huge potential assets on the books and booked at almost no value. either they need start developing it or sell it if price is high. why just keep it there?
agree. this is waiting. could be 1 month or 1 year. my personal opinion is less than a year, as they are pretty far in their analyze, so potential chinese involvement should not take more than maybe 3 month imo. 50 bagger is not enough. it would mean 3.3 gbp per share, equal less than 900 M GBP for 50% of this assets, or 1.8 M for all incl Glen part. My guess is 2x times that as minimum
Simon. you seem yo think you have all details. so you red the ownership structure when ZIOC went IPO? So pls explain to me why you think the government could take back full control of zanaga? you dont believe in legal framework in ROC? Seriously, you think you could do an IPO placing a huge amount of money for ZANAGA, and no security of ownership. in future? Looking very much forward to your explanation on this. Being i law for years this would really give me a blast to understand your logic behind that comment. ROC would keep legal agreements, or there is no future for the country to get any investments to develop the country. all investors would run away on ALL projects. Not only Zanaga.
simon. there can be multiple reasons why an investor sells out. could be liked to rest of portofolie, tax reasons etc. Who knows. They had as I can see in the past 11 mio shares. so give me a good reason why the bought into this in the past, as the project has never been so far in the progress as it is now. why buy in when there was 0 activity and 0 discussions with china? and the 2 or 3 mio they maybe need to raise is not alot. My guess is they can loan 2 mio or they can raise by deluting with 10%. Not a big issues, and will make them run for another 2 years or so
I think, a minimum is around the 7-8 usd. people paid 1,56 gbp( 2usd)at IPO 10 years ago. The market in generel made a huge jump in last 10 years, and zioc has been a high risk.I think large shareholder are expecting to do minimum 4x from IPO for 10 years, when maret has just exploded in that period. so it is 6 GPB per share, in my opinion, as a minimum. Id compared to simandou, yes that would be a fantastic deal, but again I am happy with 6 gbp/share....
If a full BO, I think the scenario could very likely be that a bid would be around 6 B USD. If you have to add infrastructure for 5 B, total investment is 11 B. Paid back in 7 year 100%, so min 23 years to do huge profit (1,5B USD /year). My guess is GLEN would accept 3 B USD for their half as it would be money directly on their equity. for us this would be around 10usd/share, so very happy with that. In my view this is not an unlikely scenario. agree?
I think the most likely scenario is a BO, but it will require a high price before GLEN will agree to sell. But also a JV is for sure a possibility. Lets say it requires 5 B us to built all infrastructure and get to 30 MTPA production. I read in some of the previous RNS a FOB price around 25 us/T. Delivered to china is probably around 40 us/T. So profit per ton is minimum aroun 50 usd/T for the FE 66%+. 30 MTPA wold give a potential profit on 1.5B USD per year for minimum 30 years. This is serious money. So if China came with a solution saying, we pay the 5 B, but needs 50% of the shares. I would be happy to be diluted by 50%, because the dividend per share incl the new shares would still be potential 1 GBP per share. I would be happy getting 1 GPB per share for the next 30 years, and I do not see it unlikely that the chinese would be interested in paying 5B for all infra structure, to get 50% ownership, as it would mean they would have paid back their investment in 6-7 year and from then, they would get very cheap Iron ore for min 23 years ahead. Not unlikely scenario at all, and I would be happy wit nice dividend for 30 year. For me a BO is not the only solution here.
If I look at the value that are traded, it is really low. It is pocket money. A full day can easily only be 500K share equal 40K GBP over 20 trades. Seriously some of the trades are so low and in the level og buying icecream to your kids. This must in my view be either daytraders who think they can earn a buck here and there, and sells out as no increase, or some investors who bought in years back and have now maybe 5% of what the originally put in, and just are cleaning up in their depot, by selling 20K share for a value og 1,2 K pounds. There has not been any serious money in here for a while, but only low volume. I am ok invested with a couple of mio shares and still buying when I can get some in this level. If it will take 1,2 or 3 years , the upside is huge, and the chances for this major ressource will never get moving is in my view really low. China wants iron ore, Congo for sure wants to see infrastructure, jobs etc being created. My own view reading about simandou, is that ZIOC could rewards shareholders massively and in some cases for live changing private economy. I cant understand why some investors are so negative, as it is in my view a major step forward to have a framework agreement with coidic. Huge step in making this mine come alive. For me this could happen very fast and it will be suspended and no trades anymore. no chance to get onboard if the Chinese decides to go for a buy out.
I am a bit surprised to see the trading yesterday in terms of volume and drop. looking at the 2019 RNSĀ“s I can see they spent around 100K usd/month. But I think I read somewhere in here on the forum that when the team got the shares back in september, then they also agreed to get paid less salary, but I cant find the RNS about what are the current open per month, but think . Does anyone know what is the current monthly opex?