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Globe Metals in trading halt on the ASX today, so likely to be ready to announced granting of MDA as reported in Malawi Press. Subject to the terms of the MDA, and assuming they've not rolled over and accepted unsatisfactory non-commercial terms to get the MDA over the line, it will be instructive to see whether their shares are re-rated as there could be some read-through for market reaction to MKA.
Agreed - my take was that he was rude, sanctimonious and condescending. You couldn't make it up. This company is now completely uninvestable unless they get experienced new talent to run the show, with RP clearly not up to the job. I'm out too.
Great news from the Minister of Mining but some very mixed messages are being reported by local Malawian press:
14 January 2023:
Malawi Minister of Mining announces Mkango's MDA to be completed by 31 January 2023.
12 January 2023:
[Malawian Attorney General] said Mkango Resources Limited in particular wanted changes to the law while Globe Metals wanted government to calculate its proceeds using fixed prices, but government challenged that.
“Mkango and Globe Metals have been able to understand government’s position. For Globe Metals, the review process is at 90 while Mkango Resources is at 70 percent,” he said.
Source: https://mwnation.com/govt-guards-against-exploitation-in-mining/
I wonder who has final authority over this matter as comments by the Mining Minister and AG don't seem to be on quite the same page? If it is true that MKA is requesting "changes to the law", and this is not agreed, this seems like it could be quite the sticking point. Hopefully Mkango will do some PR to clarify the situation now that these statements are in the public domain.
Disappointing results and significantly less drilling has been completed than I expected (didn't the company imply there were two drills running concurrently for a significant length of time?). There is a continuation of a bizarre communications strategy where the Chairman and paid PR articles recently alluded to a set of batched results being released in Q1 2023, for them to subsequently release an underwhelming partial set of results in Q4 2022 when no one expected it. Perhaps this is just the result of faster than expected assay results being received and the company being under a legal obligation to release price sensitive results as they are received, but it gives the effect that the company is being run by complete novices in the field.
There remains a possibility of a positive surprise with the final pending assay results but that's a complete unknown at this stage.
I'm now valuing this along the lines of Rincon Resources on ASX (another Lenigas associated entity), which has a larger land package than WSBN, in a locality which is similarly close to Telfer, with what I consider slightly better early intercepts on their Hasties/South Telfer prospect.
Rincon's market cap is AUD 6m (GBP 3.3m). WSBN likely has a bit more cash on hand than Rincon, based on their respective recent capital raises. Both have promising early signs of copper/gold mineralisation but nothing that looks remotely commercial, so I think they're broadly equal in this regard. Being generous perhaps WSBN should attract a valuation of approx. GBP 2m more that Rincon to account for the probable cash differential on their balance sheets, giving WSBN a target market cap of GBP 5.5m. In my view, this implies another 40% downside to WSBN on top of today's fall unless they can deliver something unexpected.
The share price chart and developmental stage of this company appear to be following the classic Lassonde Curve - MKA are in the trough of the "orphan period" at the moment, where speculator PIs have left as we await news of the MDA and financing.
The current market cap, the company's assets (Songwe & recycling IP & exploration portfolio) and macro backdrop (non-Chinese NdPr supply chains urgently sought by US and Europe ASAP) provide a compelling investment case to my mind.
Other reasons could include their nomad has advised that a photo of this nature is deemed price sensitive information, so they have withdrawn it pending release of a formal RNS along with a commentary about the mineralisation.
Of course 99% of investors understand assays are key, but to say “pictures don’t mean a damn thing” is myopic. This picture clearly evidences the strongest levels of visual mineralisation released to date (whether that is commercially valuable mineralisation is still tbc). The key thing about this latest pic, which sets it apart from any other images released by Wishbone or other neighbouring explorers, is that it is strikingly visually similar to HAD005, Greatland’s standout discovery hole - that is why the share price took off like a rocket on Friday and is likely to continue appreciating this coming week.
https://mobile.twitter.com/stocksandrocks/status/1075249296017043457/photo/1
Toys out of the pram time Watcher? I thought you'd sold and wished holders good luck... Rather than continue your incessant moaning because you have the patience of a goldfish and have no ability to stomach a bit of volatility, why don't you be a good sport and jog on out of here now you're out?
Few observations from the recently announced Lindian deal in Malawi:
- Mining licence appears to have been already granted on their project, and is transferrable to Lindian as part of the deal, so hopefully this is an important precedent and Mkango will be able to secure at least as favourable terms from the Malawi government for the Songwe licence area.
- Lindian have agreed to pay more than the current market cap of Mkango for the Kangankunde asset, despite it having an existing JORC resource of half of the proven and probably reserves of Songwe and appearing to need significant amounts of further work to get it up to the DFS stage.
- Given this recent M&A deal, and considering the significant NPV from the Songwe project, Mkango's exploration upside, as well as its recycling tech, one would assume that there are potential suitors examining Mkango as a potential acquisition target given its current lowly market cap.
Exactly right Skippy.
Putting cash in to an ISA is still losing people money in real terms after accounting for inflation. UK property looks seriously overpriced and primed for a painful correction. Stocks are extremely volatile but may be the best option to keep up with inflation. In my view, the only way Joe Public has any realistic ability to preserve the purchasing power of his savings is to invest in the stock market. There are lots of people in the UK with lots of cash and no borrowings - for them, stocks will remain attractive.
Detailed Gravity Survey should have recently been completed, with data likely to be undergoing processing now, and results due anytime from next week (per the last RNS).
Regional gravity surveys published by neighbouring explorers show lots of activity on the Red Setter tenement, including the intersection of two major gravity edges in the immediate vicinity of our drill targets.
Precise identification of offset gravity highs will provide additional high priority drill targeting. Hopefully the company will provide us with a more complete status update soon with some commentary about progress.
Cottelsoe drilling must be imminent as well, I would have thought???
No way of knowing what Myles holds now - in Q1 2021 he disclosed that he held 2.98%, so deliberately just below the reporting threshold so he can trade it without declaring. I suspect he is pretty active trading high volatility shares like this.
Could be, or perhaps just that it has fallen so far on such little volumes, for no clear reason (other than perhaps a large Russian holder exiting his position earlier this year), that it was due a bounce to levels more appropriate for its reported assets
I am not so sure. There are two major near term hurdles - MDA and funding. Once these are cleared, I think there will be a major rerating, as project risk reduces and the increased NPV from Pulawy is factored in. This derailing should also allow the market to price in exploration upside from both Nkalonje as well as potential rutile and uranium deposits on separate tenements. Separately , the recycling tech, once proved up at scale, could also be spun out as a standalone asset at a significant premium to the value currently attributed to it by the market. The key risk for me is an unexpected decision by the Malawian government as the MDA is negotiated, which is suppressing the share price and acting as a blocker to both funding and larger investors supporting the company. Hopefully a good solution for all parties is agreed soon!
reproson, I don't think you are correct about this. On 5 October 2020 Wishbone issued 5,555,555 warrants exercisable for 24 months at a strike price of 3.3p as part payment for the Red Setter acquisition. On 21 July 2021, the Company received notice to exercise warrants over a total of 3,703,704 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the Company at 3.3 pence per share. This leaves 1,851,851 warrants o/s with a strike price of 3.3p exercisable up to 4 October 2022. It's of little importance anyway - recent trading volumes have been 2-3x this number of shares.
flashheart - I find value when engaging with posters who have alternate views, as I'd like to understand if any assumptions I have made are wrong. Personally, I find that QED's posts are generally reasonable and well considered - obviously I do not agree with QED's recent posts on warrants, for reasons mentioned, but otherwise I am interested to hear what QED says vis-à-vis my own thesis.