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Alastair Ford is not a regular newspaper hack parroting a get rich quick stock at the bequest of a financial PR company. He is actually a decent mining analyst who has form for identifying high-potential gold exploration companies before the crowd has caught on.
By way of an example, here's an interview from 2017 singling out Greatland Gold. Share price at the time was about 1p/shr. This was shortly before it went on its bull run to over 30p/shr over the next 3-4 years.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/308296/-we-re-on-the-cusp-of-an-exploration-wave-mining-capital-s-alastair-ford-8296.html
"proves me right" - you outsmarted the gang Noel, well done.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
And another one.... lots of international M&A linked to gold projects in Tanzania over the last few months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2023-08-10/tembo-gold-announces-transformative-acquisition-and-landmark-investment-from-tanzanian-strategic-investor
noel, you have published nearly 5,000 posts - an astronomical amount of time must have been expended on this by you given the length of many of your comments. have you nothing better to do than to **** off other posters? are your posts more informed than others' comments? i would respectfully suggest not. you criticise other posters while you personally inundate this board with repetitive links to fringe ideas, with a questionable basis in reality and of limited direct relevance to the stocks commented on, complaining they are "swamping" this board. this demonstrates a staggering level of hypocrisy - something you seem oblivious to. time to take off your blinkers and have a good hard look in the mirror before being abusive about other posters, many of whom i personally find very useful . you are the very definition of "theoretical claptrap".
Agreed @ HarChris, but how often do we see a 100% TO premium paid? 65% to 85% premium seems more reasonable when compared to other deals and I would image this would do the job - so 18.5p max, unless things change?
One thing that could help will be the forthcoming WK drill results which are due very soon. If they hit good intercepts at world class grades, similar to previous published results, that should get the SP moving in the right direction.
Here's a link to the acquisition announcement:
https://orecorp.com.au/upload/documents/investor/asx/230807043558_230806SilvercorptoAcquireOreCorp.pdf
Excellent post @pacifico.
What do you make of Orecorp announcing that it is being acquired for approximately GBP 122m by Silvercorp for a single permitted but undeveloped asset? A big vote of confidence for the region and shows consolidation is very much continuing in the gold mining sector. Also further validation of the clear relative under-valuation of Shanta.
Clearly now would be an opportune time for Shanta to be acquired, prior to appointment of a highly salaried CEO. Eric should be incentivised to do a deal as it will create a nice clean liquidity event for him to plough into his next venture.
The appetite appears to be present amongst mid-tier miners. I wonder if Silvercorp ran their ruler over Shanta before tabling their offer for Orecorp?
I would imagine that Shanta has to be one of the most attractive takeover targets remaining on the market.
This suggestion is completely impractical, and likely in breach of data protection laws, because they will be talking confidentially to parties whose existing roles could be jeopardised if it were found out they were interviewing elsewhere. As they will be negotiating a remuneration package, they obviously cannot discuss anything specific to do with progress as it could weaken Shanta's negotiating position with prospective candidates (for example, if Shanta RNS that they've found the greatest candidate ever that the board all love, before signing terms, it would be rational for that candidate to negotiate more aggressively to the detriment of existing shareholders). Until a decision is made, the best they can do is guide that the process is ongoing and running broadly to schedule, which is precisely what the company and Eric have communicated already.
@HarChris - Agree exactly this - HUM’s debt load is enormous and, despite a strong quarter of production at a reasonable AISC, debt did not fall at all from the previous quarter.
Large investors will be more concerned with enterprise value, not market cap, and HUM does not look so pretty through this lens. Add that to HUM’s less than rosy forecast AISC for the remainder of the year, challenging Liberian interests, and management that has consistently underperformed, and it’s got many significant hurdles to cross.
Mali is also entering the wet season now and historically HUM has struggled during this period with production problems.
Conversely Shanta looks exceptionally well positioned after the most recent update. I’m looking forward to WK drill results next month!
New holder just below 5% threshold is SIX SIS (http://www.six-securities-services.com) - I wonder who they are acting as custodian for?
A very encouraging update - in the accompanying presentation released on their website today, they're guiding for EBITDA of US$60m (liberum estimate but they would not include it if it was miles off). All looking good.
Maybe, although reading the article over a few times it's difficult to infer that any serious progress has been made.
In January this year, Lotus and Malawi were reported to be a very long way apart in terms of their expectations from an MDA, and reading that latest article it doesn't sound like a lot has really changed since it was first highlighted in the the local Malawian press.
The extended delays, weak NdPr price and terrible performance of Globe Metals' share price since it was awarded its MDA is becoming quite concerning. Hopefully a positive update with substance will be issued soon.
Here's what was reported about Mkango and Lotus in January:
The AG said Mkango Resources Limited in particular wanted changes to the law while Globe Metals wanted government to calculate its proceeds using fixed prices, but government challenged that.
“Mkango and Globe Metals have been able to understand government’s position. For Globe Metals, the review process is at 90 while Mkango Resources is at 70 percent,” he said.
Nyirenda said they still have issues with Lotus Resources Ltd which wants to adopt an MDA between Malawi Government and Paladin, a tax holiday of 20 years and that when government is calculating taxes, it should put into account the $350 million loss Paladin made.
He said government cannot tolerate that as Malawi lost a lot in the Paladin deal.
Mkandawire, on the other hand, said the country needs to protect its resources and ensure that government benefits.
He said the companies also want government to revise downwards their rate of royalties that companies pay.
The royalties reduced from five percent to two percent but, according to the PS, Lotus wants the loyalties for the first three to be at one percent and the rest of the mine life at two percent.
Said Mkandawire: “Any investor should align himself or herself to what is prevailing in a sovereign country and Malawi is a sovereign country.
“We need our laws to protect the interest of Malawians and that is what we are doing. We will not change laws just to suit a particular entity.”
Parliamentary Committee on Natural Resources and Climate Change chairperson Welani Chilenga commended government for not giving in to the demands of the investors."
We've had previous bid interest from two Chinese companies, namely Yintai Gold and Shandong Gold. Both are precluded from bidding for Shanta until later this month under the UK's 6-month rule. Shortly after they walked, Shandong took control of Yintai in a $1.9bn deal. Given that both entities expressed independent interest in bidding, it seems plausible that the combined enlarged entity might still have an appetite for Shanta, especially with higher gold prices and the reduced risk now Shanta's second mine is operational. The next few months could be very interesting.
I see that shares in Chaarat Gold, our previous suitor, are back from suspension today after the latest deal they were looking at fell apart and they’ve elected not to proceed. Clearly they’re keen on a material acquisition. I wonder if they’ll use the potential market uncertainty from Shanta’s CEO departure to have another look this way? There might be a better appetite from Shanta to get a deal done now. I would have thought that achieving a good price for the company and getting it sold would be a nice way to round out Eric’s tenure.