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'Should be a good weekend weather wise'

Here's a list of all the US ETF's and tracker type funds.

Depending on each economic model you could be faced with a multitude of passive sales at the same time, especially around key dates.

https://fintel.io/so/gb/thg

Oddly enough the main fund which i have been following for many months has just gone the other way on CD, from 10.89 > 10.96

This is the first time its reversed for the last couple of months, the obvious reason is fed bumper drop by half percent.

Should be a good weekend.

Here is a vague positive,the selling in my view is coming from one source only and that's trackers, each move down in price has been followed by a reduction in iShare holding - this has been the case for the last month or so.

No doubt the prop traders and shorts give it a helping hand along the way but this seems to be the biggest influence imo, the mild positive is the largest fund are running out of shares which is now down to c 1.8m

https://www.ishares.com/uk/professional/en/products/244049/ishares-core-msci-eafe-etf

There's a good chance this weeks news didn't constitute a watershed announcement which means most if not all of those consulted are precluded from buying.

I cant see how they will get the Ingenuity demerger away at a sensible valuation, it really needs one of the big holders to backstop the price but ..catch 22

On top of that THG is still stuck in the transition category, the board and their advisers seem to be totally out of touch with market dynamics.

Once the prospectus is posted we get to see the detail, and of course more importantly vote on the outcome.

Without stating the obvious its the valuation which is key, say £500m with THG keeping half with other holders putting in £250m.

Simplistic perhaps, but this removes funding obligations and gives THG and its shareholder a realistic £250m equity stake.

The biggest hurdle with this option has to be valuation, whatever its sold for will be the wrong amount, that much is a near certainty.

Also, how do the board negotiate from a strong position when deciding the price, the whole group is only valued at c £700m so that has to be a ceiling, unless of course you have a sympathetic investor (Sofina) that recognises inherent vale paying over this.

The fund raise back in 2021 raised just over $1b

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/THG/results-of-upsized-placing-and-total-voting-rights-td6donnggsxy7lo.html

If Sofina take it private with a few other shareholders they at least stand a chance of recuperating some of their original investment, that's why I think these guys will play a major part, plus have member on the board.

Sofina is a good candidate to fund Ingenuity at this stage being very much aligned with success of the business .

They also have the correct mandate to sit it out for a while, this micro scrutiny while listed is just plain daft imo, this is what the company set out to do and is now being criticised for it.

As soon as it goes private watch commentators question taking it private, 'too cheap' i hear the voices proclaim.

BOE up next 10 minutes

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/september-2024

Cong, there's a section somewhere mentioning company changes, couldn't find it to reference but from memory qualifying companies must not have changed their structure during last 12 months.

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/UKLR/22/1.html

I guess the option here would be to transfer asap and then demerge Ingenuity ?

It will be interesting to see what impact this has on HK short positions, reports are every two weeks so will take time to filter through.

Hong Kong followed US overnight with half point cut, didn't realise but these guys are pegged to US dollar so any move the fed makes is immediately replicated.

Its mostly rear view mirror stuff, market is seeing through to 2025 with cheaper money and less attractive fixed rate yields.

Nice recovery, going to chase them up on move to main list as this is not acceptable imo, THG issued separate statement detailing what's what albeit with a drawn out time scale.

Whilst the move to main list was a little disappointing in terms of timescale at least THG have set a date (no later) of March 2025.

S4 have said nothing today, only that they are now in the transition category.

It could be down to each companies advisers, or as with THG notified changes of a demerger which may limit or complicate a move sooner.

This is a bit vague:

'The new UK Listing Rules, which came into force on July 29 2024, have removed the distinction between standard and premium listing categories, which are now categorised as equity shares commercial companies (ESCC). As at the date of approval of the unaudited consolidated interim financial statements, S4Capital plc is in the Transition category.'

I would expect funds to look through that in light of fed decision, always hard to call the bottom but feels close..

Hong Kong followed US with half point cut, time for me to sit of sidelines and let this unfold.

Unusual 1m trade early doors ..

I think the shorts will struggle to keep a lid on this now rates are heading down, half a point is a biggie !

Agree, fed goes all in, nice backdrop for a change

In all honesty, nothing has really changed as Ingenuity has been up for sale from the get-go, once Softbank departed it left a void on both valuation and how the business would be funded.

Once both these issues have been resolved then THG will re-rate, there's an abundance of shareholders that want to see this through having stuck with THG for 10 plus years, £150m over 3 years is peanuts between two/three of these holders.

Reminder of last tally during rule 8's disclosure:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Long positions, previous notified holdings in (brackets)

Ophorst Van Marwijk Kooy Asset Management (1.94%) ……………………… 1.93%

Balderton Capital (UK) LLP ……………………… 7.46%

BlackRock, Inc (1.23%) ……………………… 1.22%

The Vanguard Group, Inc. (2.62%) ……………………… 2.63%

Sofina Capital S.A ……………………… 8.89%

Kelso ……………………… 0.60%

Brian George Kennedy ……………………… 2.86%

Norges Bank (1.73%) ……………………… 1.81%

West Coast Capital (1.41%) ……………………… 2.03%

Qatar Investment Authority ……………………… 7.32%

Matthew Moulding/Close relative of Matthew Moulding ……………………… 15.80%

THG Employee Benefit Trust ……………………… 5.90%

Tim Bunting (Balderton Capital (UK) LLP) ……………………… 1.31%

Mark Evans (ex- General Partner at Balderton) ……………………… 2.71%

Sir Terence Patrick Leahy ……………………… 1.24%

HARBROOK LIMITED ……………………… 1.97%

Total ……………………… 65.68%

Notifications deemed trading or prop accounts omitted

Errors and omissions accepted

Finding a partner for Ingenuity since Softbank departure has been a standout requirement, I suspect Matt/board have been trying to drive too hard a bargain and now find themselves forced to do something.

Autostore today plus Fed, if we embark on a monetary loosening cycle it should ease some of the issues, also financing the spin-out should be a bit more favourable.

Director or even existing shareholders buying is going to be tricky against a backdrop of corporate activity.

Its not clear to me at least if yesterdays announcement/s constituted a 'watershed', it feels as though there is still a lot to be disclosed.

Agree with YB, he could have done more on the listing move.