Member Info for 1pencil

Short data just released for 21st Feb, record short interest at 24m and change - looks like they got caught in this spike, ouch!

2024 not a good year for bush funds, Marshall Wace terrible results with the infamous Hindenburg closing up shop for good..

It was only Dec they appointed Cavendish, plus they have Panmure as NOMAD so a fair client base to go at now things have changed.

Its a new chapter for the Hutchmed with a very different profile on the cusp of being profitable, perhaps this needs reiterating to he crowd.

Hutchmed could also be viewed as a safe haven in light of new tariffs being applied 4th March, nothing on pharma so far which bodes well.

I've taken a bit of profit just in case the bush funds do something daft again, can never tell what half brained strategy they will come up with next..lol

The history of SETSMM is fundamental as it almost collapsed during launch, at the time market makers were deeply unhappy at the prospect of everything going automated so allowances were made..

SETSMM acronym SETS with Market Makers

Those allowances are still here today, hence most of the 'short positions' are on FTSE250 stuff and not SETS or FTSE100 stocks.

Poster earlier today (forgot name) highlighted briefly the concept, neutral position netting one off against the other. while lowering price

Cong/Yorek, its a tricky concept for folks to understand, not trying to be evasive but market making is a closely regarded secret, try Googling/Ai search, nothing comes back other than generic click bait stuff..

Okay, with that in mind there are a few other bits to wrap your head around, funds like Premier have a mandate on where and what to invest in, they cannot just rock up and start shorting companies ad lib, so what are they doing ?

Next bit, the history of SETSMM which is what THG and others trade on, history is important as it dictates how market makers behave, with THG its effectively (not officially) a closed book.. this is not the same as SETS where FTSE100 companies reside, chalk and cheese.

What do I mean by closed book ?

Due to low liquidity on SETSSMM, funds or anyone in size trying to work a buy or sell order are encouraged to use a market makers or their own front desks, this effectively gives 100% control over the order book as its populated only by props or market makers.

The next bit is complex as it involves percentage trading.

It would be good if management can announce some sort of UK roadshow following the appointment of new broker, do a round with their client base so to speak.

Holding levels in the face on confirmed tariff activity, safe haven perhaps..

Kbyk (13:38), agree 100%, mentioned many times as sellers remorse sets in..

The easy and obvious answer is they are not shorts, at least in the sense described here.

Premier Miton Group plc for example are a long only fund yet they appear on the short tracker page, anyone consider why ?

There's only 5.5m available currently to loan @2.18% interest per day.

Well whatever the 'other medium' were discussing last night didn't pan out, no ?

Painful though it may be, markets need a correction imo as totally out of balance with real world events.

Mentioned on another thread Dominoes pizza comments with customers opting to collect saving delivery charges, Subway are now paying workers daily to meet their needs.

All this DODGE stuff is going to feed into employment data which may give fed scope for further cuts.

Its grim out there, Glanbia yesterday, today Ocado in retail..not good..

Dominoes pizza in the US mentioned customers are opting to collect to save del charges, we really needs rates down and soon imo

On top of that we have the spectre of EU tariffs although not all doom and gloom, current US tariffs have helped with the cost of whey at least in the US, EU still remains elevated.

US spot down to 54c per pound from Dec high of 78c

My take on the US is one of fragility, possibly even close to collapse under credit, fed needs to act fast as all of this DOGE stuff is likely to feed into higher unemployment.

Sensible idea, good volume overnight in HK should be at or around 272 but UK market not playing ball.

Expecting more stimulus from China, US looks fragile with Americans cutting back on just about everything.

Fair enough, can understand why.

How can you lot criticise management when all you do is talk about Steve/s ?

If I had £150k on the line my focus might be on Glanbia investor call this morning..

The vibe feels like we are going back to the pre- Jack Mae era when China was seen more favourable, Jack is now back in the limelight as is Alibaba, the raft of measure have certainly helped spurred on by huge drop in 2024 of FDI.

Hopefully this time everyone s a bit wiser and less volatile, Hang Seng blasting through key levels against a much improved outlook, be it Ai or more traditional optimism.

Jatw, good set of Q's, looking forward to the replies, please post if able.

Re-reading that CNBC article, authorities have now set a deadline of 2025 for all measures to implemented, this is definitely a change in tone and gives the market confidence to invest imo.

‘A very strong signal’

While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.

She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.

The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.

“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.

Could be signal for further investment, music to AZ's ears perhaps - the rabbit well situated for new partnerships.

(4) Promote the orderly opening of the field of biomedicine. Support eligible foreign-funded enterprises to participate in the pilot production of biological products, accelerate the review of provincial pilot programs and quality supervision programs, promote the optimization of resource allocation in the biomedical industry, and coordinate and resolve the difficulties encountered by enterprises in the pilot process in a timely manner.

Study and improve the open policy in the pharmaceutical field, facilitate the accelerated listing of innovative drugs, optimize the procurement of drug belts, and further improve the predictability of medical device products.

https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/202502/content_7004409.htm

On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/china-strives-to-attract-foreign-investment-amid-geopolitical-tensions.html

Rotation ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/deepseeks-rise-fuels-rally-in-chinas-markets-while-indias-allure-diminishes.html

On Thursday, an official from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) singled out AstraZeneca’s new small-molecule drug factory as an example of a successful foreign investment in China from 2024 during a news conference.

The comment came a day after the Chinese government unveiled a 20-point action plan to boost foreign investment, which included pledges to make it easier for foreign drug makers to launch innovative drugs and participate in public procurement processes.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3299615/signs-relief-astrazeneca-china-courts-foreign-investors?module=top_story&pgtype=section

Thing is, the world has never really returned to pre-Covid levels in terms of supply, no sooner we exited the pandemic war broke out.

Its not just grains but fuels, in fact everything that's currently contributing to high inflation is in there..