Member Info for 1pencil

As mentioned a while back, can easily see negative rates from the ECB, never seen such a dovish statement accompany rates cuts as yesterday.

Rates are very much aligned internationally despite central banks claims they are not.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1470953/monthy-fed-funds-ecb-boe-interest-rates/

ECB cut rates again today, below is a chart of Euibor which factors into the Term B loan highlighted below (taken from AR23)

'The term loan B carried an interest rate of 4.50% plus EURIBOR '

https://www.euribor-rates.eu/en/euribor-charts/

Quarter point cuts are not much in the scheme of things but along with other metrics such as whey help point the needle our way..

It also lists a geographical breakdown of holder, far right panel, some use perhaps ?

I think its worth watching as up against the bid threshold, can't see the same happening here due to much reduced free float by comparison.

' Tangential' - good word score too..

I came across this list of shareholders while looking for contact details which has a few of the Chinese based smaller holders.

M & G along with Carlyle Group have to be the standouts for communicating with.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HUTCHMED-CHINA-LIMITED-59660104/company-shareholders/

Term B loan is priced in EUR, no ?

'Restructure £600M bond, reduce to £300M using cash on balance sheet , retain RCF'

That's a serious move on the HK Index, wow..has to be one of the best performers at least for this year..

We might just yet see a return to the halcyon days after all..

As the UK seems to have evaded Trump tariffs, is there a possibility of UK utilising cheaper US supplies ?

Matt said something like why being a global commodity, no matter where its produced it will affect supply (not verbatim

The medium price per pound stateside is around 42-45c, spot cash is trading at 51c currently with futures prices mostly lower.

China Slaps 10% Tariff on US Dairy: Exporters Face New Market Challenges as Trade War Heats Up.

https://www.thebullvine.com/news/china-slaps-10-tariff-on-us-dairy-exporters-face-new-market-challenges-as-trade-war-heats-up/

Its very hard to get information on this industry as being a tradable commodity its sort of hush, hush..although Hilmar is generally regarded as the largest US whey and cheese producer

Glanbia refer to their plant opened in 2021 as being the last new supply coming online, this underlines the importance of this new Hilmar plant which has seen many delays.

This from their wikki page shows how vulnerable companies are to export controls:

'It currently produces over half a million pounds of whey protein and lactose per day and ships to over 40 countries worldwide.'

I'm glad someone takes my jokes seriously Cong.. : )

Hilmar Cheese is the company behind the new US whey processing plant which I think both THG and Glanbia referenced in their recent investor calls.

Its schedule by a year or two depending on which publication you read, end of 2024 was the official company line but this was missed also, due to its size and anticipation of new supply it likely caused a spike in Dec 24 when this did not materialise.

Official launch date looks imminent with hiring now commencing:

https://jobs.hilmarcheese.com/go/View-Jobs-in-Kansas/8942800/

Hilamr Cheese company

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilmar_Cheese_Company

https://www.hilmar.com/hilmar-cheese-company-breaks-ground-on-cheese-and-whey-production-facility-in-dodge-city-kansas/

Pharma safe haven amongst the chaos ?

The thing about these tariffs is they involve dairy, and lots of it going both ways between Mex and Canada.

So far its going the right 'whey' with a pullback from 2024 highs, this is without additional supply expected very soon.

Interesting article, US has always had a One China policy and with Trump withdrawing from overseas support could lean this way further.

China's stunning diplomatic coup against Taiwan pushes Trump into a corner

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14440161/china-invasion-taiwan-trump-defense.html

Dow tumbles 800 points as sell-off intensifies following Trump’s confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/stock-futures-rise-slightly-in-overnight-trading-as-investors-await-tariff-news-live-updates.html

..at least THG have entered the 'small cap' index

...get bunting out ..

BOL

This is the spreadsheet I tend to use as a guide, it highlights THG as :

'THG enters the FTSE Small Cap'

https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

No idea beyond that, lost interest due to protracted drawn out process.

Markets risk off day ahead of Trumps tariff implementation, you wouldn't think it by the way FTSE performed but this was in part down to defence stocks.

Not sure I am happy with the prospect of further military escalation behind any rally.

I think its just confirmation of the SHPL terms and conditions, paragraph at the end reiterates what they are going to do with cash, more pipeline R & D and no return to shareholders.

It brings into question the alignment of the board with shareholders, after all what's the point of investing If there is no capital appreciation or dividend?

No date for the EGM set although this could be an opportunity to ask some questions on the above point, surely other major holders must be in the same boat..?

Here we go, SEC filing has just updated - these guys sold just under 1m at the end of 2024.

It's likely these small rump holders are selling out completely along with some of the trackers reducing, very similar profile to S4 tbh, what we need is for these economic trackers to be replaced with LTH holders which will help ease volatility.

From May 23 every trade was a reduction so highly likely the next one will be too, most were purchased in 2021 so I guess have thrown the towel in.

https://fintel.io/so/gb/thg/college-retirement-equities-fund-stock-account-class-r1

It could be a while before we get any threshold notifications as volume is so light, next to nothing if you remove daily turnover.

Most of this selling is coming from the 6/7% of trackers imo, easy to track as many like Vanguard have online portals,iShares updates daily so very easy to spot changes.

Cong/Yorek, I bet you wish you had never asked now... : )