Member Info for 1pencil

Bit of trivia, Third Ave first started buying back in Jan 2022 when the share price was around 218p level, since then they have purchased a number of times - this was for the smaller of the two funds, THIRD AVENUE VALUE FUND Institutional Class.

The much larger Third Avenue Value Portfolio fund started in July 2022 when the price was around 132p level, adding a several times but with much bigger chunks.

As posted, most of these recent share sales seem to be at the expense of trackers/etf's, what happens when the economy improves and they go into buy mode ?

#sticky hands

This could be good news for incumbents such as THG, with less overseas competition:

Retail panic: What the end of the ‘de minimis’ exemption means for brands across the globe

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/retail-impact-de-minimis-exemption-ends-globally.html

Retail panic: What the end of the ‘de minimis’ exemption means for brands across the globe

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/retail-impact-de-minimis-exemption-ends-globally.html

Fair comment RWD, and thinking about it you are probably right.

He is an affable character though and a superb salesman, many of his interviews are really 'pitches' for S4 and S4V investee companies, Runway always seems to get a mention.

Expecting further market turmoil as uncertainty around de minimis tariff sets in. I must admit to being amazed at how the US virtually ignored this huge tax until the last minute, arguably this will have more of an impact on consumer sentiment then any of the other tariffs so far.

de minimis = convenience

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/trump-de-minimis-shipping-trade-war-tariffs.html?&qsearchterm=de%20minimis

Watching with interest but think Q4 will be much calmer with a backdrop of lower interest rates, month of May is also Fed chair re-election time..

Not sure this has much to do with S4 directly but SMS tends to feature tariffs in most of his presentations.

This is the week where de minimis subsidy ends for US consumers, although it has been planned for months there are plenty of headlines with people questioning why international carriers have temporarily stopped shipments to the USA.

Good news for incumbents with US manufacturing especially for smaller items, if we get past this week then I think we may see a more calmer environment generally with less economic conflict and deadlines.

Fed rate cut in Sept looks favourable too, ECB are likely to do the same with Germany once again falling behind. UK may also follow despite inflation at home.

-----------------------------

SMS comes across well in these interview, can't help but wonder if this would be the case if things were as grim as the share price makes out..

I would speculate they already have something in mind prompting the SHPL sale initially, if its profitable from day one could change the dynamics and smooth out somewhat lumpy revenue.

What would the value of Hutchmed be to say Takeda where they have total ownership of fruquintinib instead of existing arrangement.

There must be some carrot out there for major holders to keep quiet and continue supporting management, AGM reappointment's are always high percentage wise with little votes against.

I can see why management are excited by the ATTC platform utilising small cell molecule, its much more targeted with less toxicity than conventional treatments, really does sound like a step forward for patients, 251 should have a full profile at one of the upcoming conferences.

Does Hutchmed become the hunter or the hunted..time will tell..

Can I add one more into the mix, they buy something else with the cash on hand, this was alluded to in recent investor presentation and I guess makes sense.

The company is now profitable so adding on another revenue stream which may benefit from any synergies may help valuation wise, for the moment Mr Market is paying no attention at all to the cash thinking its all earmarked for additional R & D.

Its difficult to forecast admin/R & D expenses but using their current outlay it can be done from existing revenue without touching the cash reserves, so the question remains what do they need the bangers for if not to acquire another business.

btw, I have had some limited success getting in touch with CKHH and others, will update on anything positive.

I think the 4,102,500 was from June time, is it from Bloomberg ?

Martin is knocking out these videos quicker than I can watch them lol..

Third Ave Latest SEC filing 45,421,308

Third Ave RNS (17th July 25) 42,756,897

+ 2,664,411

THG has done well to hold this level after exiting FTSE250, last time lost at least four tracker funds and others too ..but..on the upside shares may now be in stickier hands (Frasers?)

We should see much improved metrics with debt reduction although I think consumer spending will still be subdued for a while yet.

..in other news..

'Debenhams is also pleased to confirm that it is in discussions with Revolution around establishing a more formal commercial arrangement pursuant to which Revolution will supply certain Debenhams brands with branded cosmetics under a licence agreement on an exclusive basis, subject to a royalty payment.'

Might herald extra business for 'ol THG

Yup, if production is up we should see it eventually trickle down into lower WPC prices, at least in the US which is where that metric is based.

I think part of the problem is large investors are reluctant to invest in plant due to how many of these cycles fail, the most recent one being vegan everything - this cost the food industry a ton of money and shares many attributes with the whey market, both health related spurred on by new trends..

'The rise and fall of plant-based meat (what happened to Beyond Meat?)' really shows what happens when a trend fades after colossal investment.

My guess is something will come along to replace the 'protein in everything' trend but timing is never easy, its not doing Myprotein any harm and if the prices do stay elevated they can always review their strategy, hopefully by then will have moved into clothing more too..

..just my cents worth..

Cavendish have released their sector report on Chinese pharma (previously members only), nothing ground breaking but bullish on M & A within the sector, one or two surprising stats too attributing Biotech index performance to consolidation/M & A activity..

Can be accessed from their August interim's note.

Thats is not an example of turning everything upside down, its just a change of billing structure based on quality output instead of time.

Give us an example in your profession or industry, what changes have you seen first hand?

But has it turned everything upside, down?

A while back I posted a question on here asking for feedback on those that had been impacted some way or other by Ai, this is beyond the use of Ai in a browser or conjuring up memes, by meaningful it has to have impacted your profession by over 10% or similar metric.

No one replied at the time, surely if its that seismic then someone can give a first hand account..

As mentioned, my life revolves around a farm, the high end tractors all have GPS navigation and field mapping as standard, there is almost no room for improvement as everything that can be mechanised has been..

A word of caution on this too, during Covid many of these tractors stopped working due to not having system updates and such, just too unwieldy to handle without computer assistance, price of mechanical only equipment went through the roof..

I think SMS is one heck of a dude, at his age everyone is reaching out asking for his opinion on cutting edge tech, hardly a week goes past without another interview.

My only reservation with his commentary is if it was so predictable how come S4 are sitting at 23p, you would think with all of this knowledge S4 would have been able to avoid the downturn to some degree.

The other thing I struggle with is the two seemingly distant poles, on the one hand you have all of these cost savings, on the other articles from well respected institutions like MIT saying the exact opposite.

The last couple of articles over the weekend have been an excellent insight into what's going on, blow by blow so to speak..very welcome..

I wish Dr Su well, perhaps this is an opportunity for one of the existing partners to step forward and make a formal approach.

There are plenty of pharmas further up the pecking order seeking to replenish their own pipelines, its a constant necessity.

If we are in the world of speculation then may I suggest Stanhope, or possibly Stanhope with S4V reversing into S4?

Stanhope knows the value of S4V's portfolio of companies, buying S4 would effectively give them 100% ownership of the S4V bit for not a lot of money, on top of that the whole S4 business .monks and all thrown in

MightyHive, Inc was bought for a total of $150m or about the same market cap as S4 now, Stanhope put in $70m at the time.

https://www.stanhopecapital.com/stanhope-entrepreneurs-funds-first-investment/

Some movements with trackers/etfs in June/July on the sell side, it could e a sort of capitulation as these funds seem to move in unison.

UFF Grandes Marques M -178,234  

50.00% Jul 31, 2025

Third Avenue Global Value F Acc USD -177,567  

43.08% Jul 31, 2025

RGI UK Recovery B Inc -100,000  

23.96% Jul 31, 2025

FranklinAI,Metaverse&BlockchainETFUSDAcc -72,981  

100.00% Jun 12, 2025

Undly L&G Future World UK Eq Idx Fd -2,647,155  

100.00% Jun 30, 2025

Undrly Fid DC L&G Fut Wld Mlt Asst MAGJ -1,032,828  

100.00% Jun 30, 2025

Undrly Future World Global Equity Idx Lf -487,620  

100.00% Jun 30, 2025

Undrly Future Wld Glb Eq Idx GBP Hdg Lf -224,928  

100.00% Jun 30, 2025

Total -4,921,313

That's a great article, a good read on Ai and industry specifics, final para or two also mentions MSQ in the context of One Equity Partners, sort of explains a bit better but still sounds like past tense ..

Article was published yesterday, but makes reference to the MSQ news..?

'and why his firms merger with MSQ Partners signals a new phase of consolidation'

Paragraph starting with below i thought was good, unable to copy and paste ..

'The view that Ai destroys creativity is pure bull@#?%