Member Info for 1onic

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/chinese-fev-price-rebounds-after-hitting-bottom/

Above from January and...it wasn't even close to bottom. Are any of the experts calling the bottom now, any offering a figure?

D, I do tend towards the contrarion view. The outperformance or otherwise is the million dollar question and as such any sensible analysis sees this as a pure V play atm. The historical perspective is worth looking at as I'm not really a disciple of 'it will be different this time' with regard to any asset / commodity. I'm interested in the circumstances of the previous spikes, worth a look Imo.

It's frustrating having such poor data for prices which reduces any analysis to very rough s/r levels and patterns by eye on the vanadiumprice.com site

I think this is a commodity question not specifically a Vanadium one, however i offer the following as one of the many criticisms of the classical supply and demand model.

Some economists criticize the conventional supply and demand theory for failing to explain or anticipate asset bubbles that can arise from a positive feedback loop. Conventional supply and demand theory assumes that expectations of consumers do not change as a consequence of price changes. In scenarios such as the United States housing bubble, an initial price change of an asset can increase the expectations of investors, making the asset more lucrative and contributing to further price increases until market sentiment changes, which creates a positive feedback loop and an asset bubble. Asset bubbles cannot be understood in the conventional supply and demand framework because the conventional system assumes a price change will be self-correcting and the system will snap back to equilibrium

And your rebuttal is.....

If anyone bothered their butt to go back to the 80s and adjust for inflation you would see prices have spiked, higher, on several occasions and returned to a baseline which on an adjusted basis is probably flat (i haven't done the calculations either). So why would prices stay elevated this time when the classic supply/demand model applies pretty well to all other commodities albeit there is a time lag normally. The supposed structural deficit everyone is fond of quoting has a limited shelf life, don't see much sign of it so far anyway. Answers on a postcard to Ionic@everyotherminerofanythingisdirectyleveraged.com ;-)

Makes sense, I've been guilty of focusing on the US too much but it really is all about China globally now isn't it (and I don't really mean the trade wars nonsense)

Scratching my head how the Dax is just over 10% off its all time highs when Germany is practically in recession. Scratch, scratch

The market wasn't too impressed with Powell yesterday me thinks

The very thought of Daisan ever saying 'fill yer boots' is utterly inconceivable and should such an event occur the end of days couldn't be far off ;-)

??

From the big short

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=the+big+short+brad+pitt+on+the+effects+of+a+crash&view=detail&mid=4E16DA174F2E1BFCF2ED4E16DA174F2E1BFCF2ED&FORM=VRRTAP&vrvid=4E16DA174F2E1BFCF2ED4E16DA174F2E1BFCF2ED

Hp, Powell has obviously lost his cojones somewhere recent but QEn, surely not, inflate the bubble of everything further. It's a frightening prospect.

May see 1500.00 but fear/greed and the humping the 'growth' stocks are shortly to get in the US will reverberate here too.

Scientist (ex)

bolas de acero

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/KEFI/14031647.html

The start of a rerate of sorts hopefully

Only weigh about 4t, 2 axle tiddler will lift it no bother ;-)

As always everything takes twice as long as one would wish but I'm encouraged by the non-completion to the bottom of the channel this week and the continued testing of the 12ma, Wednesday and Friday.

On the downside a breakout from compression pattern will often come back to retest the support/resistance of breakout then go lower so a move over 91.00 this coming week would be welcome and a break below 87.50 equally unwelcome

https://ibb.co/9v7Kzj3

http://www.britishslang.co.uk/slang/divvy

;-)

That's what you call a crowded trade, glad I'm out....for now