I disagree as potential as follows from December RNS, 'Building on the initial results of the technical review announced in September 2020, a remapping exercise has been completed to more accurately define the complex reservoir horizons now recognised in Lancaster. The reservoir simulation model has also been extensively rebuilt, utilising this remapping work, recognising the contribution from sandstones onlapping fractured basement, and using additional historical and regional data. This simulation model has been used to assess various near-term development options which are currently under technical and commercial review.'
I don't believe sandstones has been included in current reserves. Correct me if i'm wrong.
Lots of potential out there and also significant risk but i' m a lot more comfortable today than yesterday. The last RNS in December was disappointing but not as negative as most thought. I should have sold and repurchases but timings were wrong. I still topped up but only have a small amount in the first place. A speculative buy which could well pay off handsomely.
Currently Hurricane has over £100m in the bank. Producing in excess of 12,000 Barrels a day which will reduce over the year but strongly cash generative in view of price of oil. Side-tracking the existing 205/21a-7z well could maintain current production capacity or even increase it. This will deplete reserves but looks like sandstones could add to reserves. Development costs are currently estimated at c.$60 million and water injection at 75 million. In view of current price of oil dilution may no longer be on the cards and if it is very much on a reduced basis.
Real potential for SP to increase which also lead to smaller dilution. Just need further reserves to put 2021 into a transformative year rather than share holder annilation. May still pull the rabbit out of hat!
I think by March we will have reserves update and plans for 2021 (if any). I thought reserves update was going to be in January but could be wrong. Even if nothing further is done this year there's positive cash flow to get the company set for the future and development in 2022 in my view.
Going back to one my earlier posts:
'Negative RNS: No upside in reserves or even worse increase in water cut and therefore further reduction, Warwick area relinquished, no forward plan for Lincoln (or Spirit backing out) and we'll see a price of around 2p
Positive RNS: sandstone accessible and reserves increasing significantly. Water cut stabilised and producing at over 14,000 a day. Spirit agree to drilling in 2022. Water injection planned for first half 2021.Share price 8p by close of 2020 and in excess of 12p first quarter 2021 following broker recommendations.
Neutral RNS: Water cut slight increase. Will be producing between 11,000-12,000 a day 2021. Sandstones looking OK, plan to investigate 2021/22. Water injection planned for 2021. Plans to follow for GWA in 2021. Share price between 4p to 5p Close of 2020 and increasing to 8p by end of second quarter 2021.'
We've had the negative RNS in December.. Now A real positive production update. We just need a reserves update and we should see plus 5p with future increase depending on next steps. One share I won' t be selling just yet!
First positive update I have seen. (Touch wood) 2021 continues on the same path. Production at 12,100 is good to see and more importantly water cut reduced by 1%. Cash generation actually means if nothing else is done this year the company should have enough cash to pay back bond holders provided POO stays in line with expectations for 2021.if it increases makes further exploration easier to fund. GO Hurricane (first time I have been able to say that :)
Slift, you could be right on approximate average costs on 10,000 but hoping for 11,000-12000 based upon latest RNS for next quarter. Based upon this looking at around $36-$38 but would be good to get an update at year end on actual costs considering reducing production as to be inspected. Of course these costs could be substantially reduced if side track and water injection is successful! At least we know there's oil there so one of these should be successful fingers crossed. For those willing to take punt we'll worth the risk at this price even with potential dilution of shares.
I think the water injection not only targets 2c production but taps into sandstones! Key is the new mapping as to whether this increases reserves position and 2c within 24 months. A total game changer for Hurricane prospects
Seriously $18 dollars! I believe I'm the mid year results they confirmed costs were approximately $34 from memory. Still good profit but not enough to cover future development and bond repayment hence talking to stakeholders. Don't get me wrong I'm invested but like to base my investment decisions on facts rather than fiction and like to advise my fellow investors accordingly. I may have made a mistake so please correct me if you have heard differently.
OK I think I am maxed out on shares I want to purchase in Hurricane. Its a real gamble and am hopeful of bondholders taking a stake in the company as will be best bet for them to recover their money. Yes this will lead to a dilution in my tiny share holding but at least this should hopefully sort out the debt and put the company on a stronger footing. Its possible this could go the other way but its a penny share and its a punt.
If Hurricane are able to refinance or get bond holders involved this will be a game changer and there could be a real rebounding in the share price within two years with successful exploration. The company has Lincoln which has shown commercial quantities of oil so there is light at the end of the tunnel provided we can get an investor.
Potential multi bagger long term but also potential for all investment to be lost if bond holders do not agree to restructure and finance not available elsewhere. Likely bond holders may take a stake in company but ultimately dependent upon risk appetite and Hurricane is high risk based upon news in last year. Share price could slide until there is positive news. There hasn't actually been any positive news this year and lots of negative which has rewritten the bottom line. Until we know future plans best to be avoided unless you want to take a punt here rather than at the bookies. I have done so but actually not sure if the odds at the bookies may have been better for one of top 4 Premier league teams to win the league rather than Liverpool!
Salaries in the NHS are good but there's better elsewhere. Have relatives who are consultants who have emigrated as they could double their incomes as specialists abroad. There are so many moving into private practice as more lucrative. The NHS theref
ore has to look elsewhere
UK vaccine research is world class and has been for some time. Even so dependent on other nations as well in respect to research and production if to be released world wide and not just in the UK to make sure we get the best benefits from it in view of investment and other vaccines being purchased.
The same cannot be said for other industries mentioned and therefore foreign investment or expertise is required. We live in a global economy and are reliant on other countries as we were during the Empire to maintain our status. Its not just about speeches by politicians but actual substance. Top 4 economy at present which we hope to be in 50 years time again. Decisions been made now will determine whether we are.
For British farmers and manufacturing industry its not just about cheap labour, its about productivity. Your general person off the street unfortunately does not have the same work effort as your Eastern European on farms. It has been shown time and again that Eastern Europeans are more productive per hour and willing to put in long hours. Our British worker produces less, has more time off sick and quite often do not come back to work after a few days as they would rather live off benefits than do a hard day's work. It's just the way it is. For your average working class person (who is working) they unfortunately do not have the luxury of being able to purchase more expensive British products as they have to manage their budgets.
With less trade agreements in place as we have left the EU I expect the prices may raise a little with other countries and their will be additional administration costs with dealing with the EU. This may have the additional benefit of making some British goods more competitive.
In other areas of expertise we need to import as we do not train enough Doctors or have the IT skills of people from around the world such as India. The company I work for outsource its accountancy work as the external company could provide this service at a fraction of our previous staff costs. This was done a few years ago and to be honest if these cost reductions hadn't been done the company would have folded due to debts. This would have led to a loss of over 5,000 employees (now employing over 8,000). The resulting losses from other companies would have been a few thousand. Harsh decisions need to be taken to survive.
I can honestly say because our company survived many of the businesses I deal with have also survived due to the services we provide during the pandemic.
We still have great technology and businesses. Yes products made within the UK may have products from around the world but they have got to be competitive to export in the future. It can't just be we import goods and stop exporting. That would be our downfall.
For Britain to remain 'Great' it has to concentrate on the sectors it is profitable in. If we go around purchasing products which are artificially high due to labour or material costs we are taken away our money for future growth sectors or other British products as we have less in our wallet. Britain become great because it punched above its weight in technology and business and political acumen. Unfortunately this is longer the case with the likes of Jeremy in the recent past for the opposition or Boris in respect to areas he knows nothing about buy trys to pretend he does. Sometimes it better to be silent than say the wrong thing. Luckily he comes across well and can cover his mistakes so far.
There's no longer an empire to exploit of resources or cheap labour so there once again has to be a change in culture to stay competitive.
Ideally we would but when other items are cheaper on comparable quality it becomes difficult. Especially if your in manufacturing or servicing and you need to compete to win orders around the world as at home. If your producing things uneconomically your going to go out of business and your work force will have to be let off. Ultimately its only the better off can purchase items which are more expensive.
Enjoy the festivities and let's hope we can shortly put this car crash of a year behind us. Good luck for the future
The company is doing the right thing. Not announcing every contract win as some are not news worthy in view of Capita size. Provided the company can continue to control costs, win contracts and ultimately reduce debt further there will be a massive correction and will fly to pre-March levels of £1.50. I can see this happening in next year. Provided news continues to be good will kick on from there.