The Stockopedia estimate can only be guesswork. They don't have access to the company bank accounts and I'd be very surprised if they've gone through £255K since February. It also doesn't take account of whatever the residual balance of the Co. bank accounts were at the time of the placing.
I think it's unlikely there'll be a raise for a few months yet, if at all. If the company in negotiating other deals manage to deliver some upfront cash then it may not be necessary. I wouldn't let it put anyone off buying in or topping up now.
12 February 2024
Placing to raise £375,000
Tertiary Minerals plc (AIM: TYM), the London listed explorer focussed on copper and precious
metals in Zambia and Nevada, USA, wishes to announce that it has raised £375,000, before
expenses, through a placing of 468,750,000 new ordinary shares (the "Placing Shares") in the
Company at a price of 0.08 pence per share (the "Placing Price"), being a 15.8% discount to
the closing market bid price on Friday 9 February 2024 (the "Placing").
Go to the company's website:
https://www.tertiaryminerals.com/downloads/20240212-tym-rns-placing-to-raise-375000.pdf
All the trades you've been seeing for the last couple of weeks at 0.0455 are buys. They're showing as sells (red) because the trade took place below the mid price. Anyone who's bought lately will know this. The 1M trade this morning is mine and it's a buy.
I welcome the surprise sale of the Diatomite claims this morning, although I think the deal could have been better.
I don’t think anyone should get too fixated with this deal in relation to the future prospects of the company. The sale is unexpected, it provides some limited up front funds which helps, and is no more than a side show relative to the company’s potential through its flagship projects, which include the CS Project, Pioche, Hazen and possibly Reece Ridge once more analysis has been carried out.
An accumulation of royalties payable over a significant timeframe is no bad thing; Pioche 2.4% for 25 years, Garfield 2% plus buy-out clause, Diatomite no less than 10 years @ $6/ton plus buy-out clause, Jackson Wash 2.5% plus buy-out clause etc. it all adds up and will reflect in the share price is due course.
In the meantime, we await news on the CS Project which will dwarf all of these.
For anyone wishing to know more about Diatomite here’s a link:
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-diatomite.pdf
Well, you know my view. I don’t believe PC has lead us a merry dance, I believe he has just had to face some real world problems which began with the pandemic, 2 years lost effectively, and he’s really struggled with an industry which seems to think it can leave change until the 11th hour. The momentum for change is building, as Terrafin and others have highlighted, and Federal funding coupled with public sector project tendering being restricted to only green concrete producers/users helps enormously in focussing the minds within the industry.
As for investor interest, investors are prepared to “buy the rumour and sell the fact” with large established companies such as FTSE 100 or FTSE 250 stocks but AIM is a different animal. By its very nature Aim is for start-ups and nascent companies without a track record or profit profile, so it tends to be large and small private investors who invest here rather than pension funds and institutions who really push the market.
On the announcement of a CS Project deal everything will change and the share price will respond to the price level the deal is pitched at, revaluing the company. This may have the added benefit of giving the market more confidence about our other projects and the deals that can potentially be done there, so some form of forward pricing/valuation, in the share price, might be possible at that point.
It might help to look at it taking a different slightly simpler approach, because some of the factors which will be brought to bear on a final valuation we are not a party to. So if you start with the pre-mining current approximate value of the CS project being between $1.5 billion & $3.7 billion, depending on whether you use $100 or £150 per ton and whether you include or not the North East Zone. Although I can’t see the North East Zone not being factored into a deal in some form (it has yet to be permitted but I don’t see that being a problem).
You could take an approximation of “costs” @ around 50% of revenue. You’re then left with around 50% or so of residual revenue which is the area where the deal will be made. The buyers profit and the seller’s price come from this residual sum. You could be more pessimistic and run the numbers with 60% costs and 40% residual revenue and apportion the buyers profit and the seller’s price from there. There may even be a future royalty element to a deal.
However the deal is struck, I’d be disappointed if it comes in at 2p per share which would values the project @ approximately £85.5m ($108m) on gross revenue of between $1.5 billion - $3.7 billion which would equate to between 7.2% - 2.9% of projected gross revenue being paid to the seller (SRES).
Quite, so no I’m not suggesting the CS Project should be worth as high 38.96p to a buyer.
As you say, your summary doesn’t factor in mining costs, transportation to market, carrying costs or the profit expectations of the buyer.
We should expect something lower than your 38.96p per share when these factors are taken into account, but higher than most people expect.
That’s a really interesting question Safe and the only reason why we’re all here, but it’s rarely discussed. Largely because the reality is probably beyond the expectations of most on here and wouldn't be believed. I’d love to give you my take on the stand alone value of the CS Project and our other projects, for which we’ve got basic information, to give an overall company valuation, but I just don’t think you would take it seriously.
What I am prepared to say is the starting point for the CS Project is:
14,500,000 tons of raw Pozzolan @ a current value of somewhere between $100 - $150 per ton.
1,300,000 tons of raw Perlite @ a current value of somewhere between $100 - $150 per ton.
Plus the North East Zone which measures/equates to approximately a further 60% of the above.
The set up costs for a dedicated on-site production facility is around $40m.
Mineral extraction is largely “free dig” so mining costs are low.
So the approximate current value of the CS Project reserves in the ground are between $1.5 billion & $2.3 billion and if you add in the North East Zone it rises to between $2.5 billion and $3.7 billion.
Beyond that we have further significant high quality Pozzolan/Perlie reserves at Hazen, New Perl, Jackson and a mixed mineral find at Reece Ridge together with Sepiolite at Pioche which we all know about.
Tot it up and do some simple calculations. The reality is far greater than 10 x current market cap on the CS Project alone.
I hope that helps.
I agree that it's most likely to be a sale rather than a JV but I don't see how "the buyer has all the cards on this one" as there are 3 companies seeking to acquire. This is supported by Justone's feedback from the AGM in which PC confirmed it wasn't a question of price but timescale, in that at mid- February PC couldn't predict with certainty when the deal would drop, other than the first half.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that PC believes things will happen soon and it will finally be transformational. I think it’s most likely to involve the sale of the CS Project and a significant capital sum, although there may be some element of future royalty. With 3 parties involved each will have their own take on how they wish to structure it but the essence, I think, will be cash.
Interesting that you should raise Hazen, which I think will certainly form part of the discussions and may form a follow on to the main deal, although it’s not at the same stage as the CS project, so an option perhaps, but its high quality is confirmed by Lab results so it has to be a target.
As for timeframe, PC’s purchasing may suggest something sooner than 3 months, but we will see.
Whatever’s going on behind the scenes it seems pretty evident it’s a good time to buy, that’s what he’s conveying to the market.
PC would only be precluded from dealing if we were in a reporting period (company results), which we’ve passed, or if an offer had been made for the company. As it is, we’re negotiating a deal on a particular project with several entities and so he can deal.
It’s without doubt a vote of confidence and a signal to the market from PC.
19 December 2023
EARN-IN AGREEMENT KONKOLA WEST COPPER PROJECT, ZAMBIA
“Subject to regulatory approval of the EIA, in Stage 1 of the EIA, KoBold is committed to complete at least two drill holes (for a total of at least 2,000m of drilling) within 14 months, with drilling to start no later than May 2024 KoBold's planning of the Stage 1 drill programme is well advanced with the first drill site selected.”