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Think 45p is grossly undervalued, but regardless whether you agree or not don't forget that Zak Mir does technical analysis only and we all know when there is a catalyst/news then the share price is not held captive to the charts.
GLA.
Hey folks,
LTH here and frankly had written off my investment in COPL but glad to see things have changed course for the better. In order to plan for when the shares are re-listed, I am keen for a fair and honest, yet factual summary of what lies ahead for COPL.
EBITDA?
Valuation?
Near and long term potential?
etc......
Thanks in advance!
Thanks @Cause17 for the context and @EVB for the further details. We are all on the same page as I too am extremely hopeful after years of holding, and for Amapa to happen simply seems like the path of least resistance.
Does anyone know how much the loan amount is? Surely the project should soon be able to pay off the loan in full and be debt free?
I have been thinking about why the banks agreement is taking this long? Could they possibly benefit by dragging their feet? Are they hoping that there might still be a way to re-possess the Amapa project? With the high iron ore prices they would definitely get much more than they have loaned (similar to how a traditional mortgage default works). Why should an agreement that has apparently been agreed, take this long?
Unfortunately I don't have answers to any of the above, but what I do know is that its in everyone's interest for Amapa to proceed in the way it currently is. The only exception to this would be the banks who would, arguably, be set to gain more in case of a default. But I am sure the Brazilian authorities wouldn't allow that, and in many ways their number 1 priority would be the betterment of the local communities (i.e. jobs created, economic activity etc.). Also if the banks were hoping for anything like that, the first shipment has proved to be a kick in the teeth.
By the way, I recall someone having mentioned here the 3 banks in question and from memory they were:
- Canara Bank
- SBI (State Bank of India)
- Axis Bank (???)
One can see all 3 are Indian banks, perhaps looped in because of the Zamin connection? I did also happen to stumble across a list of loans (non-Amapa specific) made which also had Syndicate Bank (another Indian bank) as another Amapa creditor, however that list was from 2016/17 so not sure of its accuracy. That loan was classed as "DOUBTFUL".
Could the creditor banks be upto something?
Following on from my Bed & ISA response regarding IG, I did my own "Bed & ISA" as @Bannor and others have explained.
I bought an ETF outside of my ISA as IG had incorrectly classified it as not ISA-eligible. After buying it I realized it actually was. I spoke to IG who accepted their mistake, re-classified the ETF and gave me £10 compensation to sell and subsequently re-purchase within my ISA (I pay £3 per trade for UK equities).
That's a lot cheaper than having paid £40 to IG to do it for me. Hope this helps.
@DizzyG - the number of shares is as per my original post, and has been taken from the RNS in Jan 2021, so that's the number we need to be working with.
For all those saying we own 0% of Amapa, yes I agree that to be the case until the official deal has been signed with the bank creditors, however since when did the market start operating on definitive deals/agreements? It has always been the case that the markets take the "future" into consideration i.e. future potential/deals/discoveries etc. If in any doubt look at how the NASDAQ has been (and still is in my opinion) over valued. If still in doubt look at Tesla (if still in doubt I have plenty other examples but you get the drift).
In short, the stock market has always factored in future deals/earnings etc., even where they have been based on rumours. To be honest, the 20% Amapa deal is pretty much done and dusted for me, and the first shipment is evidence that its very much a formality only. When it actually comes through, is anyone's guess.
Hey Folks,
Hopefully this can distract/divert the attention of this board onto more "constructive" topics.
I am trying to get a feel of what the KDNC share price ought to be once the 20% deal is done. I know many here have had a go at estimating the KDNC share price, but what we LTHs have known for a while now is that the market refuses to fairly price the share in light of its "big potential" investments, therefore I want to estimate Amapa ONLY.
AA's impaired value of the mine = $660M
KDNC's 20% ownership in USD = $132M
KDNC's 20% ownership in GBP = £96M (using the current exchange rate from XE.com)
KDNC's current market cap = £40.35M
(market cap. has been calculated using info. from RNS of 12th Jan 2021 i.e. 148,349,098 shares, and closing price of 27.20p, taken from LSE website)
KDNC's estimated SP considering Amapa ONLY = 64.7p
I think 64.7p seems like a fair value for the share once the RNS is out, however I am very hopeful of the very low float and the "excitement" that this may cause and therefore would not be surprised this going to the psychological 70p before retreating.
Of course if the market wakes up to the other world class investments in EMH & BCN it could go higher, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Any crtitique/errors/suggestions/ideas/thoughts etc. welcome.
Update:
Still hadn't received my shares as of Tuesday 6th April, so reached out to my broker (IG) who said they have nothing to action and therefore I need to contact PB. This I did (via email) and received a prompt response from PB that they had sent the shares over to my broker on 24th March. Almost at the same time the shares got deposited (on 7 April).
Not sure who the reason for the delay was, but I got the shares in the end so I'm a happy bunny.
Hey Folks,
I note that the share float is 145M (approx. 148M outstanding) which is small, but when compared to a typical AIM share its extremely low as its not uncommon for small cap companies to have a float in the billions.
Now I don't have the %age of shares held by institutional investors (hopefully someone will enlighten me), but either way this is great for the share price, and it can be assumed that if a reasonable number of investors hold on to their shares post the RNS (yes the one we are all eagerly awaiting) then the share price can actually do wonders over and above what has been estimated on this forum (£1 plus).
Happy for any thoughts/comments etc.
Thanks EVB, this is great information.
So basically what we are saying is that the total number of shares in issue for any stock (in case of KDNC=148m) are spread across all exchanges the stock is listed on, and that the price also remains the same across all exchanges?
On a separate note, is anyone here trading on the Aquis exchange? If so, what platform/broker are you using?
Hey Folks,
Just occurred to me that KDNC is dual listed right. Does that have any effect/impact on calculating the valuation of the company? Eg. on AIM it currently has a market cap of around £36M, but whilst performing a valuation of the company, should one also take the OTC listing into account?