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Nice work @Obs.
Whatever the share price estimate, these calcs include Amapa only therefore factoring in the other bits will only drive the price higher. I think an RNS really is due this week :-)))
GLA
I still hold the opinion that its unlikely we will get to the full 49%, but would be great for us shareholders if we do.
I am quite happy to run with conservative estimates north of 27%.
Either way, time will tell no doubt.
So, with things being "imminent", whats everyone's thoughts RE exit strategy?
I know that when the RNS finally lands, the price will go up, but then retrace (as it always does), however as most of us here know KDNC will still have legs once the initial RNS lands i.e. there will be several other catalysts in the future (e.g. 27%, potentially 49%, BCN situation, EMH etc...).
Are you planning to top slice or sell everything and head for the hills?
@20% it should be around 62p. This is a very conservative calculation ONLY for Amapa at 20%. This is using Anglo's impairment value of $660m (20% of $660m = £93m).
As I said this is extremely conservative due to the following reasons:
- it uses AA's impairment value
- it does not take into consideration Iron Ore's recent rip in prices
- it ignores ALL of KDNC's other projects
- it ignores the additional 7% ownership of Amapa, which I think will be a done deal once the bank's have settled
@27% it should be 83p for Amapa ONLY. Taking all other projects into account I don't see £1.50 to be unrealistic. What the market thinks is, however, a different discussion.
DYOR & GLA !
Hey Folks,
I am new here. I got this share recommended by someone and since I bought into it (@82p) it's been a great performer for me. At first I was a little skeptical due to its low market cap, however its the div yield that attracted me to it.
At current levels, the div yield is still very much attractive, and I am considering topping up. Therefore I would like to get views of some LTHs who can give me a balanced view of the potential risks etc.
Thanks in advance !
Fair point @0rient.
The point is about what is a fair value for BCN. Would you sell a Ferrari for the price of a Ford?
Pleasure @Obs842
@Maddog - this the unknown. The number of days one pays to use the vessel is really dependent upon the agreement between the 2 parties. The worst case for KDNC would be that it pays when the vessel starts its journey to Santana, best case I guess would be once it has docked at Santana.
I may have some useful information to estimate shipping costs, for those who were interested. I got the following in relation to Medi Zuoz from my brother who has several years experience in the maritime industry:
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She is a 2017 built Ultramax dry bulk carrier. The vessel is suited for carrying cargoes such as iron ore, however, the parcel size that she can carry would be around 55k-58k tons as 45k tons can be carried but would not be an economical parcel size. The current daily charter rate for a vessel this size and type would probably be in the region of $9,000 to $13,000 depending upon a number of factors.
The charter rate starts at the time and date mentioned in the charter party agreement and is not dependent upon whether or not the vessel is laden with cargo.
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Hope this helps in getting some kind of estimates RE shipping costs.
@Bannor
Looking at Ganfeng's treatment of BCN, what makes you think our 30% JV will achieve even 3/4 of the $200M? Although I am a shareholder of both BCN and KDNC, I think KDNC-only shareholders should be concerned of the current situation too, because if the current deal goes through as-is, it will set a precedent and therefore KDNC's share of Sonora might not achieve the desired outcome/value. And that is if an offer from Ganfeng even comes through.
I think a superior BCN offer will benefit both KDNC and BCN shareholders - currently, its a lose-lose situation.