Member Info for 165zephyr

BIG jump in share price just now !

So, with things being "imminent", whats everyone's thoughts RE exit strategy?

I know that when the RNS finally lands, the price will go up, but then retrace (as it always does), however as most of us here know KDNC will still have legs once the initial RNS lands i.e. there will be several other catalysts in the future (e.g. 27%, potentially 49%, BCN situation, EMH etc...).

Are you planning to top slice or sell everything and head for the hills?

Don't be such a maddog, you gotta remain an EV_Bull to BWell !

Today's volume has breached 1M after a good few days, and there's still over 30 minutes till end of the trading day.

Seems like someone somewhere knows something !?

@20% it should be around 62p. This is a very conservative calculation ONLY for Amapa at 20%. This is using Anglo's impairment value of $660m (20% of $660m = £93m).

As I said this is extremely conservative due to the following reasons:

- it uses AA's impairment value
- it does not take into consideration Iron Ore's recent rip in prices
- it ignores ALL of KDNC's other projects
- it ignores the additional 7% ownership of Amapa, which I think will be a done deal once the bank's have settled

@27% it should be 83p for Amapa ONLY. Taking all other projects into account I don't see £1.50 to be unrealistic. What the market thinks is, however, a different discussion.

DYOR & GLA !

Hey Folks,
I am new here. I got this share recommended by someone and since I bought into it (@82p) it's been a great performer for me. At first I was a little skeptical due to its low market cap, however its the div yield that attracted me to it.

At current levels, the div yield is still very much attractive, and I am considering topping up. Therefore I would like to get views of some LTHs who can give me a balanced view of the potential risks etc.

Thanks in advance !

Fair point @0rient.

The point is about what is a fair value for BCN. Would you sell a Ferrari for the price of a Ford?

Pleasure @Obs842

@Maddog - this the unknown. The number of days one pays to use the vessel is really dependent upon the agreement between the 2 parties. The worst case for KDNC would be that it pays when the vessel starts its journey to Santana, best case I guess would be once it has docked at Santana.

I may have some useful information to estimate shipping costs, for those who were interested. I got the following in relation to Medi Zuoz from my brother who has several years experience in the maritime industry:

============================================
She is a 2017 built Ultramax dry bulk carrier. The vessel is suited for carrying cargoes such as iron ore, however, the parcel size that she can carry would be around 55k-58k tons as 45k tons can be carried but would not be an economical parcel size. The current daily charter rate for a vessel this size and type would probably be in the region of $9,000 to $13,000 depending upon a number of factors.

The charter rate starts at the time and date mentioned in the charter party agreement and is not dependent upon whether or not the vessel is laden with cargo.
============================================

Hope this helps in getting some kind of estimates RE shipping costs.

Great that this went ahead, sorry couldn't join as the Mrs B'day took priority. Hopefully next time !

@Bannor
Looking at Ganfeng's treatment of BCN, what makes you think our 30% JV will achieve even 3/4 of the $200M? Although I am a shareholder of both BCN and KDNC, I think KDNC-only shareholders should be concerned of the current situation too, because if the current deal goes through as-is, it will set a precedent and therefore KDNC's share of Sonora might not achieve the desired outcome/value. And that is if an offer from Ganfeng even comes through.

I think a superior BCN offer will benefit both KDNC and BCN shareholders - currently, its a lose-lose situation.

Been thinking of all the possibilities:

A) Ganfeng don't make a formal offer
===============================
Reaction: The share price will most probably initially dip, however I do expect the price to recover, perhaps back to at least current level of 55p

B) Ganfeng make a formal offer
==========================

B1) The offer comes in at 67.5p
Reaction: The share price will jump to 67.5p

B11) Offer accepted
Reaction: The share price should remain around the offer price of 67.5p

B12) Offer rejected
Reaction: The share might initially dip, but may recover to at least current price of 55p upon the realization of the potential of the asset, and the recent raising of the company's profile

B2) The offer comes in over 67.5p
Reaction: The share price will jump to at least offer price

B21) Offer accepted
Reaction: The share price should remain around the offer price

B22) Offer rejected
Reaction: The share might initially dip, but may recover to higher levels

C) A White Knight walks in with a superior offer
=======================================
Reaction: This will be an interesting turn of events and will increase the interest in the share and therefore the share price will most likely increase to around the White Knight's offer price.

Thoughts welcome on whether I have captured all possibilities and events that may follow.

Thanks @TradeCraft.

That's day is the Mrs' birthday so a bit tricky, but will try my best to make it. Thanks for setting up !

I agree @cmsammy.

I too can't see why they would need additional cash, now that they will be awash with the proceeds of the stockpiles, as I had eluded to in a previous post of mine, I think 27% is the max. we should realistically expect to get.

But as they say, never say never !

Happy to join.

@Lindi

In short, KDNC seems to have recently turned a corner, and IRONically (no pun intended) it isn't to do with Lithium. The Amapa project seems to finally come good, and we have started selling and shipping iron ore. The agreement with the banks is still outstanding but in light of the RNS from this morning, seems the delays are due to COVID running rampant in India.

Separately, BCN has received intention of an offer from Ganfeng, which has also had positive effect on the share price.

With regards to how high this can go, most LTHs here will know the full potential of KDNC, but this is likely to materialize in stages. Looking purely at Amapa, my personal opinion is that Amapa is worth at least around 65p to KDNC's share price, and therefore it should rise to around 70-100p+ once the 20% is in the bag.

As always, DYOR.

So WHEN (fingers x'ed) the current offer is rejected, do you think the BCN share price will re-rate to pre-RNS at 45p?

Or will this fiasco have increased the profile of BCN enough to support a higher price at current levels?

Does anyone here know?

I am keen to understand what the figure is - surely it'll be negligible in comparison to the price of the Iron Ore stockpiles sitting ready to be shipped. With the shipments having been started, the risk to the banks has significantly reduced, and therefore I can't see a reason for the banks to drag their feet.

Can't see what all the fuss is about.

Hey Folks,
Yes I did ponder immediately after my post RE the £23M that BCN will receive for the 53M new shares, so agree my maths was a little bit off.

But the interesting thing on that is that IF (BIG IF) the deal were to go through then, from what I understand about M&A activity, that money would circle back to Ganfeng as part of the the cash held by the company, so in effect Ganfeng's offer of 67.5, which is low by all standards, ultimately hands them their £23M back !!! Brilliant planning by the Chinese, and a double whammy for shareholders.

Finally, the current low share price has got to be with the fact that the market simply does not see the deal going through with the current terms - I think that's great news !

@TomCat - where did you get these numbers from?