Member Info for 165zephyr

As many here have already mentioned, I too initially thought that buying in at current levels of 57p would be a no-brainer as the offer price is 67.5p and therefore easy money can be made. However after having done some calcs I think the market is correctly pricing BCN.

Here are some calcs:

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Current ownership of Ganfeng @ 17.41%
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Total Shares = 330,811,568 (from RNS of 3 Feb 2021)
Ganfeng's 17.41% = 57,594,293 shares = £38.8M (at offer price of 67.5p)
Remaining 82.59% = 273,217,274 shares = £184.4M
Total BCN valuation = £223.2M

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Future ownership of Ganfeng @ 28.88%
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Total Shares = 384,144,901 (from RNS of 6 May 2021)
Ganfeng's 28.88% = 110,941,047 shares = £74.8M (at offer price of 67.5p)
Remaining 71.12% = 273,203,853 = £184.4M

Now, the valuation should be equal to £259M (384M x 67.5p), however treat this transaction as very much a dilution of shares as new shares will be issued, with no change to the underlying valuation of the company, therefore the share price adjusts downwards accordingly i.e.:

£223.2M / 384M = 58p

So in short the market is, IMHO, correctly pricing at 57p.

Oh and BTW, I too think the Ganfeng offer is a joke. Let's reject this !!!

Agreed @EyeGuy.

With that kind of money being available from current assets, sadly I can't see KDNC ever getting to 49%.

27% should follow after 20% is secured, but new money won't be required and hence little chance of KDNC increasing their ownership IMHO.

Excellent news.

With the destination of "Qingdao", does that tell us anything about who the buyer is?

@EyeGuy
If these numbers are correct, then KDNC's 20% ownership of the stockpiles ONLY (£43M) are worth more than its current market cap (£41M).

Flabbergasted !

Although BCN is currently domiciled in the UK , it wasn't originally a British company. Furthermore, most (all?) of its assets are outside of the UK ........

..... Is BCN really a British company? Does the UK Govt. have any powers to intervene?

Regardless, I still think the Ganfeng offer is an insult. £190M for a company that owns 70% of a $1.2B asset (and a couple of other assets bolted on). The management must be crazy to recommend !

Thanks @MLQ !

Where are our ship spotters?

@Ivans - several folks have had a go at KDNC valuations in the past. Someone did a really good (and extremely detailed) job of it but I forgot who it was (apologies, and hopefully someone will refresh my memory!).

Here's what I can contribute:

1) BCN
KM has said in the past that the value of KDNC's JV is 30% of 70% of BCN market cap. Using Ganfeng's "cheeky" offer this will be around £54.6M (70% of £260M = £182M ; Then 30% of £182M = £54.6M)

2) EMH
This should be easy as its 12% (I think) of the EMH market cap. So 12% of £133M = £15.96M

3) Amapa
I had done some calcs recently (feel free to look up historical posts) which evaluated the value of KDNC's 20% ownership ONLY using Anglo's impairment value of $660M. This came out to be around £96M (which BTW would contribute 64.7p on its own to KDNC's share price). Granted this is a very conservative valuation as it does not take into account the recent surge in Iron Ore prices, but I'd rather be conservative in my estimates.

4) Hastings + McArthur
Not doing the detailed calcs, but I'd again be conservative here and add another say £2M for these assets.

5) Copper
Do we have any Copper assets?!

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TOTAL = £168M
KDNC share price = £1.12
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I see the above as a very conservative valuation, owing to:
- Use of Ganfeng's cheeky offer price
- Surging Iron Ore prices
- Use of Anglo's impaired valuation

Happy for everyone's collective thoughts on this.

Agreed MrC - I recall some analyst once saying that BCN is sitting on $1.2B of assets.

Not sure if anyone's already done a valuation for BCN, but I would think its probably worth at least double the price offered by Ganfeng.

More good news on the Iron Ore prices. We need that agreement with the banks !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/iron-ore-s-blistering-rally-sets-sights-on-200-as-steel-booms?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business

EVB - that seems like the the destination listed - no doubt there ....

Thanks @Sivad - this is helpful indeed !

Hey Folks,
I was wondering whether anyone's had a go at calculating a fair valuation (share price) of EMH?

Thanks in advance!

Does anyone know the total amount that is owed to the banks?

Think 45p is grossly undervalued, but regardless whether you agree or not don't forget that Zak Mir does technical analysis only and we all know when there is a catalyst/news then the share price is not held captive to the charts.

GLA.

Hey folks,
LTH here and frankly had written off my investment in COPL but glad to see things have changed course for the better. In order to plan for when the shares are re-listed, I am keen for a fair and honest, yet factual summary of what lies ahead for COPL.

EBITDA?
Valuation?
Near and long term potential?
etc......

Thanks in advance!

Thanks @Cause17 for the context and @EVB for the further details. We are all on the same page as I too am extremely hopeful after years of holding, and for Amapa to happen simply seems like the path of least resistance.

Does anyone know how much the loan amount is? Surely the project should soon be able to pay off the loan in full and be debt free?

I have been thinking about why the banks agreement is taking this long? Could they possibly benefit by dragging their feet? Are they hoping that there might still be a way to re-possess the Amapa project? With the high iron ore prices they would definitely get much more than they have loaned (similar to how a traditional mortgage default works). Why should an agreement that has apparently been agreed, take this long?

Unfortunately I don't have answers to any of the above, but what I do know is that its in everyone's interest for Amapa to proceed in the way it currently is. The only exception to this would be the banks who would, arguably, be set to gain more in case of a default. But I am sure the Brazilian authorities wouldn't allow that, and in many ways their number 1 priority would be the betterment of the local communities (i.e. jobs created, economic activity etc.). Also if the banks were hoping for anything like that, the first shipment has proved to be a kick in the teeth.

By the way, I recall someone having mentioned here the 3 banks in question and from memory they were:
- Canara Bank
- SBI (State Bank of India)
- Axis Bank (???)

One can see all 3 are Indian banks, perhaps looped in because of the Zamin connection? I did also happen to stumble across a list of loans (non-Amapa specific) made which also had Syndicate Bank (another Indian bank) as another Amapa creditor, however that list was from 2016/17 so not sure of its accuracy. That loan was classed as "DOUBTFUL".

Could the creditor banks be upto something?

OK thanks for all the replies. I am not keen on opening yet another front by using a new broker ... ALAS perhaps wait until this is listed on OTC (I know the price would have moved on considerably by then)

... are you guys using to buy? I am on a few e.g. IG, T212 and IBKR but none offer VLRM trading at all. Any ideas?