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Judging by the exploration plans at MOD & KML, we will enter a news rich period that is very rare on AIM.
We could soon be drilling at multiple domes at T3 Complex whilst kicking off the T20 Complex drills
Meanwhile, KML are clearly cracking on with their plans having completed the AEM early and acquiring more land.
Investors love a long period of regular news and boy are we going to get a dose of that here.
So far the market response to the KML deal has been fairly muted. I suspect that will change as we progress to the drilling campaign. If they strike a hit there, nothing is priced in and with potentially 4000km2 net to MTR, a discovery will be hugely impactful especially as they are using the same state of the art AEM tech that has proven to be successful on the MOD/MTR land
Another great RNS where we will expand our reach (again!) in the Kalahari Copper Belt
If KML take these licences on then we will have over 4,000km2 net to MTR, in addition to the MOD acreage
They haven’t hung around with exploration either, with the AEM results coming in ahead of expectations in terms of timelines
Thanks for that inv123. They clearly have a plan and they were itching to get going on the T3 Dome Complex
No wonder they were confident given these outstanding results - and it only took them 3 holes on A4 and potentially 2 holes on A1
👏👏👏
Good points there inv123. Off memory, didn’t you meet the MOD guys in Walsall?
I seem to remember you saying they had a plan which was to drive up the MOD share price to avoid a low ball offer and also to to prep a cash raise at much higher prices.
It was a while ago, would you mind covering that again now that we are seeing the results come through, which is presumably part of their plan?
Afternoon all. MTR clearly have enough cash now to fund an expanded programme at MOD and KML.
MOD themselves will likely need to raise more at some point, so the focus in the short term is to drive up their share price with exploration success. This means more results at A4 with the 4 rigs turning (including the NPF contact assays awaited) and success at A1
A1 is very interesting because it’s a large dome and their highest ranking priority identified by the AEM tech. It’s also 26km away from T3 so it begins to sketch out the all important district potential theory.
They have had no previous drilling to guide them and no soil sampling, so success there (on the second hole) proves the AEM tech to be successful, especially given it found decent A4 grades with just three holes.
If MOD get their SP towards $1 and open another raise, it also unlocks MTR ability to grow its war chest because the current 6% holding in MOD is worth £4m today and will be worth £8m at $1. There is no 12 month holding lock-in period on that so there’s another large potential lump of cash which can be used further down the road by MTR
In summary, they need to get enough short term results on A4 & A1 to convince the market of potential district scale which will in turn drive the short term share price of MOD which will then open doors for both companies to release more cash for the other targets
Very exciting times!
I’m actually away with work at the moment and plan to update it over the weekend.
It takes a while to update because there’s the A4 update and pics to go in plus the fundraise details.
Michael did make reference in the latest interview that they wanted to protect their equities holdings at this stage and so the option to sell those down was considered but declined by the BOD.
I think it’s fair to say the drilling budget has changed due to outstanding results at the T3 Dome plus the KML deal has provided an excellent 50% JV but they are accelerating their plans there too which includes the state of the art AEM flyover this month plus a follow up drilling campaign.
A 50% contribution there plus 30% contribution at MOD JV costs money
This is a new development because we only just acquired the KML JV in recent months
With MOD rising plus the JV deal terms, our equities division will be allowed time to flourish
Olderandwiser
I agree it’s good to hear both sides of the coin and debate it, however when itsaduster was coming up with scare stories at 1.9-2p a share and calling all sorts of doomsday scenarios only to then turn bullish at 2.4p smells of an agenda
I wonder how people felt who sold on the back of his claims at 2p only to hear him swing bullish and then miss out on the rise to 3p?
It’s that kind of behaviour that weakens his reputation I’m afraid
Totally agree Inv123
A4 is looking to be another major discovery similar to T3 and they’ve still got he NPF assays to come plus the visuals on hole 4 in the MOD ANN looked incredibly similar to hole 3 but Mineralisation is shallower as it’s up dip.
This A4 discovery alone is transformational due to its short distance to the T3 pit but then it sounds like A1 is going to deliver too!
Meanwhile, the monster T20 Dome Complex approvals are still progressing for September
I suspect the next assays on hole 4 will surprise many people and with the overhang clearing, the SP will begin to reflect the reality here, which is that we’re sat on a district scale copper rich licence area and we are leveraged to the exposure through the new JV structure
What an odd thing to say! That investor show was ages ago and since then, they’ve had the KML deal and committed to an exploration budget there and MOD/MTR have enjoyed bullseye success at A4 and increasingly likely at A1
The company has totally changed in those months and I would want them to ramp up exploration plans which of course costs money
241,490 at 2.89p
Ok .. we’ve raised some funds to invest in the Kalahari Copper Belt and I guess the AEM tech has changed everything with a direct hit at A4 & A1 looking promising.
The MOD/MTR campaign is being ramped up and looking at the timeline on the MOD presentation, T20 Dome Complex also kicks in September
The elephant in the room (funds wise) is KML which we will have a 50% stake so in reality, we are funding 30% of MOD/MTR and 50% of KML/MTR and if they are going ‘all out Exploration’ then that needs cash.
Late last year, the asset trading division produced the goods but since then, the holding in MOD has gone sideways and THOR retreated so cashing in those would have been counter productive and I’m sure they will flourish for use another time
I’m summary this is a ‘good placing’ in terms of its use (investment in copper rich drilling domes) so that brings us to timing.
Well, this placing must have already been advanced by the time MOD halted on Friday, so before Fridays rise it was an 8% discount and now it’s looking like a 17% discount.
MTR has a great run from 2p to 3p whilst MOD went sideways so at that point it was probably a good time to raise funds and capture the gain (imagine if we had a raise at 1.8p a few months ago when MOD raised)
The timing of the placing looks like it’s unlucky but I’m sure everyone will have their own thoughts.
Moving on from that to the exciting RNS and that’s a direct massive hit on A4 plus A1 looking promising, this is excellent news. I see T20 is still on track for September so a very lengthy and expanded drilling campaign to come.
Then there is KML which has its AEM survey being flown at the moment ... wow!
The big question remains ... when will the market begin to price in ‘District Scale’?
Placing news will no doubt be debated and pass by but the drilling campaign(s) are here to stay!!
Hi Backwoodsman
We’ll never know until the ANN lands but my best guess says both assays and drill results.
MMc said everyone on site was excited by the hole two intercept and were looking forward to the assays - 3/4 weeks later and we have a trading halt
As for the wording on the trading halt, the old saying that the past is no guarantee of the future springs to mind ...
One thing we can all be sure of is that a trading halt on A4 is definitely a fantastic outcome 😀
Hectic day for me yesterday so had to watch the action whilst on the move.
This is a very interesting moment for us and clearly the news is significant enough to trigger a trading halt for MOD. My best guess is a combination of assays on that 67m intercept plus any further drilling results since the 9th July update. They increased the rigs at A4 and so activity will have moved on swiftly.
The better news of course is that the JV deal has moved the needle on our exposure to exploration because we now have a 30% Interest in A4 plus the 24.8% Equity interest in a fully diluted MOD, yet we only contribute 30% of the costs.
If early signs of A4 being a decent grade >1%, we all need to consider the economic implications for the T3 pit. It’s only 6km away so you can imagine the positive impact on the financial metrics. The other sign to look out for is - how big do they think A4 is?
The excitement doesn’t stop there though because the much bigger picture here is about confirming district scale. MOD/MTR have 8000km2 in the JV land and MTR has 4000km2 in the KML/MTR land
If A4 is indeed a direct hit on decent grades, then this means the AEM tech has pinpointed it to bullseye distance on the first attempt. That is astonishing given there was only 2/3 holes needed to get to the bullseye!
At some stage, the market could begin to price in likelihood of district size due to the successful AEM tech. We have no idea when that will be but when it happens, it will go to a different level altogether here. The models I have for that kind of valuation re-rate are way higher and not even printable yet due to it sounding silly.
That’s the key to unlocking the life changing value available here. The art of holding on to your shareholding in the knowledge of its true underlying value and keeping abreast of events to sanity check as things move along
We’re approaching the end of July and the beginning of the hotspot of transformational news.
A4 Assays are awaited and we must remember that the shorter spacing of holes suggest they are closing in on the real core target so the latest holes drilling cores should equally be exciting.
A4 is 6km from T3 so the economics ramps up due to its ability to feed the T3 pit
Let’s say we have another discovery similar to T3 here ... what would that mean for the value of MTR? The JV deal provides the blueprint because it leveraged MTR to exploration success. We should be looking at 6p+ in this scenario quite comfortably
The next question is, do we then apply a much higher value to the rest of the 12,600km2? The AEM tech has basically pin-pointed A4 with ‘bullseye’ distance, so what do we make of A1/A9 which are now drilling? What then of the other 5 domes within this T3 Complex?
On top of all that we have T20 Dome Complex (larger than T3 Dome complex) within which, there are the initial T4/T23 targets.
The AEM tech has only been flown over a fraction of the T20 Complex and its already confirmed T4 which is on edge of T20 dome, they think this is a syncline, very near surface and every hole they have done has hit copper. These are old holes being before EMP in place. This looks highly likely to be another huge copper discovery in itself and then we have T23 which they were so excited, they’ve announced that it (alongside T4) will be the priority targets on approval.
To put all of this into context, T3 Complex and T20 complex add up to just under 2,000km2,
so with all this, there’s still another 10,600km2 to explore plus MTR has another 50% JV in KML over 4,000km2
All of that mind boggling acreage, underpinned by the AEM tech ability to pinpoint the targets is enough to push the values here to double digits which would only be a MCAP of £110m. The upper targets of course could be way higher on success at T4/T23 and the rest of the T20 complex ... think two/three times that! Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though, this will require repeated success.
However, the initial £110m target is actually peanuts for the leveraged position the JV has gifted us in this huge area, which would normally be occupied by several operators not just MTR/MOD.
When deeply researched investors (who have met MTR/MOD BOD) describe this as a life changing opportunity, this is what they are referring to. The story is still very much contained as most people are not aware of the opportunity
We are on the cusp of relentless news flow for the foreseeable months, ahead which will prove the life changing opportunity IMO
You worded that better than me PMSL!
Now that is confidence! Charles could have spent that £90,000 on Market yesterday and saved himself £9,000 but instead he’s showing us his absolute confidence in 3p being well undervalued
Most CEO/Chairman on AIM milk the business for years with endless placing to cover their wages. Here we have top quality BOD who put their own money in the table and even laying a premium like today in order to send a pure message of confidence
Well done Charles. I think I’ll be roasting that with a top up myself today
Typo there .. should read:
Of course we own 24.8% of MOD .. we just can’t convert the options all at once
We either:
A) Tactically convert them and sell down as MOD rises (subject to lock in timescales)
or
B) Hold on to them because this whole deal is structured for a takeover (at the right price) at which point, they all convert immediately
Of course we own 24.8% of MOD .. we just can convert the options all at once
We either:
A) Tactically convert them and sell down as MOD rises (subject to lock in timescales)
or
B) Hold on to them because this whole deal is structured for a takeover (at the right price) at which point, they all convert immediately
Lazygun ... you talk as if those options don’t have a value. They will rise with the MOD SP
Effectively, we have to hold them for 12 months before selling them which means we are a cornerstone investor in MOD rather than be tempted to sell them quick and chase another deal
What will MOD be worth in just 6 months ... could be multiples of the exploration throws up what we think it will
Lazygun T3 was not a $4bn asset ... it had an NPV of $400m and we owned 30% so $120m
As Backwoodsman rightly pointed out, the market applies a 10% value to that for a junior explorer so $12m net to MTR
This deal is terrific ... no doubt about it IMO