MOD shares in issue before deal 231m
MTR to be issued with 17m shares plus 40m option shares so 57m ‘new’ shares
MOD fully diluted will be 288m shares
MTR’s new 57m added to their current 14m shares = 71m total shares
71m shares as a % of 288m shares = 24.7% of enlarged MOD
This should read:
If A4 comes in as a T3 Twin for example, we NOW get a leveraged benefit ... firstly via our direct ownsership of 30% of the JV and then through our economic interest in MOD of 25%
Spot on Inv123 .. only you’ve sold us short with the MOD holding
We own 24.8% of MOD after this deal ... amazing really!
If A4 comes in as a T3 Twin for example, we not get a leveraged benefit ... firstly via our direct ownsership of 30% of the JV and then through our economic interest in MOD of 25%
Then the market will really wake up!!
What if A1 (highest ranking target also comes in??)
Then there’s the other domes plus T20 mammouth area including those eye watering T23 & T4 targets
It just does not bear thinking about ... massive upside
And underneath it all we no longer need to worry about financing T3 to Production
Morning Everyone
This is a truly amazing deal and I've been up early, making a simple addition to the blog which explains it very clearly
.
In simple terms, we have cashed in T3 for £16m in MOD shares and we have an effective ownership of MOD of 24.8% (incl our existing 6% holding)
This goes straight to the balance sheet taking our cash/liquid assets to c. £30m
We have no need to contribute towards T3 production costs
We keep the 30% mouth watering exploration upside in all non T3 assets incl the seven dome targets in T3 Complex plus T20, T3 and T23 etc
I can calculate the markets implied value of MTR share of these JV assets amounts to a further £10m so the sum of parts in the blog will increase from £21m to £26m giving a new sum of parts of 5p+
This is tremendous!
Bonker has the updated blog from me and is updating it now and will publish it asap.
Look out for the section **Newsflash**
Fantastic news today .. Significant & strong visible Copper sulphides over a 67m downhole interval eh?
Freeheels explanation of MMc description of a stockwork morphology, not previously seen by the JV sets the heart racing too!
As we have been saying for months, this is the most transformational drilling campaign for the company and what a fantastic start it’s been.
To put this into context, A4 is shaping up to be a potential T3 Clone and the AEM tech has pinpointed with accuracy, where to drill.
Meanwhile, the drills are turning at the highest ranking target, A1 and also A9 with a further 4 domes yet to commence. As if thats not enough, in parallel to this drilling, approvals are ongoing at the mammoth T20 area with the AEM tech flying over that this month.
T23 & T4 can get going as soon as approvals are received (because the tech has already flown over them) Then we face a sustained period of potential news coming out of our ears!
To think T3 alone has an NPV of $400m+ is a reminder of the sheer eye watering upside available here.
We keep saying it but this is a life changing investment. We have waited 18 months for this action to begin and its all happening right here, right now.
If this latest intersect is even a half decent grade, there will be speculation as to what we have in A4 and all these multiple targets and the market will be forced to begin to price in the potential
Just where do you begin with a calculator to work out anything near fair value?
RR positioned his chunk of warrants at 6p and he clearly expects them to be VERY profitable ...
This could all kick off very very soon IMO
Interesting conversations today.
When we talk about life changing investment returns here, people are naturally focussed on the the SP and wondering what feels like a fair price?
The reality as we all know, is what should the market capitalisation be?
So, we’re currently sitting at £33m with a strong balance sheet of liquid assets supporting it.
The ultimate first question is - What is our 30% BOTS project worth if the AEM tech is proven to work and identify Copper in the huge 12,600km2 acreage, plus our 50% share of the 4,000km2 KML acreage?
Secondly, what is it worth when the market sees us proving it up (much like Cuprid have done?)
The real value could be many multiples of our current £33m MCAP so there is the life changing value IMO
Would it surprise us to see a £100m+ MCAP in 2018 with T3 domes well advanced and then making discoveries at T20/T4/T23, closely followed by KML plans in early 2019?
I can see a valuation way over that, and thats not wearing any rose tinted glasses either
Some great posts here following a fantastic upgrade that blasted through my expectations!
Apart from news landing into a RED day for the wider market, I think we would have seen a better reaction. These things tend to be factored in over a series of days so plenty of reaction yet to come.
The interesting thing for me, yet again is the sheer scale of whats going on here. The MOD guys kept referring to T3 as a great starter project in their Walsall presentation and they would have been aware of these figures. Weve yet to add the T3 Underground and feed through from T1 so clearly these numbers will be revised up again.
What this does, yet again, is spell out that we have a defined template for when we make further discoveries. All seven T3 dome targets are within distance to feed into the T3 pit so anything like another T3 (or two, three) just blasts these already juicy NPV figures out of the ball park.
Just in 2018 on T3 Dome, we could be looking at NPV well over a $Billion
Then we have T4, T23 and T20. Our next door neighbours, Cuprid Canyon have made multiple discoveries. Its looking highly likely that we will replicate that.
I said over the weekend that the upside here is the largest I have ever been involved in and in reality, larger than even our most optimistic views.
This summer and Autumn is going to be awesome here. The biggest challenge is just sitting on our hands and holding on to those shares for dear life.
Some are speculating that there has been an institutional buyer here of late and they make a living on preying on weak hands and taking your shares cheaply before a huge re-rate.
They are not having mine!
As we enter July, we should expect thick and fast newsflow here.
It’s been 3 weeks since we announced the first hit at the A4 Dome and according to the RNS, we parked a further 2 rigs onto it, so 3 rigs drilling what appears to be a T3 Clone Dome.
A1, the highest priority is also drilling away but appeared to start later than A4 according to MMc in his interview.
My sum of parts valuation at 4.6p does not include any exploration upside so any further exploration success will clearly increase this.
It’s interesting to read Bonkers view that a 50% takeover bid at MOD could be considered by investors and I have to say, anyone getting their hands on it for that price is the steal of the century.
I’ve played around with some valuation metrics assuming one or multiple deposits are discovered on T3 Dome and I’ve also considered if the same were to be achieved at T20 which they are flying their AEM tech over this month.
I’ve never commented on what my calculations come to, because they range from OMG to absolutely ridiculous but that time will come soon.
I really don’t think investors realise the sheer upside here, it has by far the largest upside in any investment I have been involved in, and its the real deal too (not some pie in the Sky dream) something you very rarely come across.
We could be days or weeks away from proving district scale here and of course this is just on the JV area with MOD/MTR.
What MTR have done in the meantime, is secure the 50% JV with KML before all of this kicks off, so if/when the AEM tech is proven, it can also be applied to the KML 4,000 km2 area.
How do you value all of this and where do you start? Well thats going to be interesting to see what happens because if the market is forced to price this in anywhere near what district scale is worth then, as Inv123 has repeatedly said, it will be life changing for those that hold on to their shares.
I have a feeling we will soon find out and July will be an explosive month!
The root of the problem of course is that the current sum of parts is worth north of 4p and we have entered the most exciting exploration phase in the history of the company .. something we had to wait 12/18 months for permits. Early indications are that the AEM tech works in finding the copper domes so on that basis it’s very simple... I can think of loads of reasons to buy but I cannot think of one single reason to sell ... whilst that continues, then sellers are going to be hard to come by
There sure are different thoughts here and all valid. MOD looks vulnerable to an unwanted predator IMO - especially at the current MCAP. Im sure it will be clear to them that if there was a JV deal of some kind in the near term, having MTR with a larger shareholding of MOD will be useful as a hedge against such predatory action using their voting rights. They have LIM on board in the recent placing plus the other large holders (inc directors) ... all of those combined should see then secure enough time to prove up this phenomenal licence area themselves and sell out at a time of their choice. In summary, im saying its not all about MOD requiring 90%+ ... there are other benefits of a JV deal As ever, time will tell but certainly drilling news is now centre stage whilst we wait
Totally agree Bonker/Inv123 Today�s news is so very significant! Ive not seen such a derisked Investment with absolute eye watering upside for many many years. People just need to spend an hour or so reading up by googling MTRBlog Best hour of your investment life IMO
More cracking posts from Bolgas and Inv123
Bonker ... That has to be one of the best posts on here for a number of reasons. I genuinely recommend people read that two or three times. Anyone who is even mildly researched can see that this stock is the real deal ... no pump and dump and todays KML deal was with real cash in the bank account - no mates rates placing. Ive been here getting on 18 months now and only now is the time to be properly anticipating real life changing news for investors. I want double digits here without doubt and I think that will be delivered in 2018 judging by the sheer size of the timetable and into a strengthening copper price.
This is an excellent deal, structured really well with a great price! Terry Grammer will have been all over this and given his thumbs up. What a time to expand into the Kalahari Copper Belt and next door to Cuprid Canyon!! The MTR board have pulled a rabbit out of the hat here. All of their expertise gained from the MOD/MTR JV applies here including AEM surveys and EMP applications OMG!!
Yes. I corrected my typo in the post afterwards (underneath yours) Section 17 is a useful breakdown plus, as Boo pointed out, post year end we have sold KCN shares which will be a big encashment from equities to cash
Meant to type ... see the assets breakdown within the balance sheet .. not P&L lol
Sure. 1) See the Assets breakdown in the P&L 2) As at 31st Dec, MTR were owed an additional �2.1m cash to them. Presumably the settlement from the sale of equities
With �15.4m of cash and equities as at end Dec 2017, its now unequivocally clear that we can easily finance our share of Bots 2018 exploration without the need for dilution. The underlying valuation gap is now clear to see with the market applying a �25m MCAP, its valuing Bots at �10m. Within that, we have a 30% share of an NPV $400m nailed on plus all those exploration targets as upside in T3 Dome with mouth watering targets to follow in T20 Dome in the summer. Ironically, ASX is choosing to value MODs 70% at �68m. Sooner or later, the market will begin to price this properly either by a corporate JV event (which we know has been bubbling along since last September) or by significant drilling results due later this month on the first two of the seven domes. What the results have clearly done is to allow the market some transparency in order to properly assess this, and its well behind the curve on known Knowns already so throw in some game changing news or drill results and the upward valuation adjustment will be severe and swift. Bring it on!
Im on a beach abroad at the moment and just checked in on a friends mobile. Saw the results and notice the NAV is confirmed at c. �15.5m against the �15.93m I had in the blog (see my recent posting history for the figure I had at end Dec where there is a pic of the blog on my Twitter account dated 1st Jan) I took a lot of flack on here and the figures have finally been proven to be correct .. Fantastic year for Metal Tiger ... More from me later when I have full access
This is shaping up to be the classic trap of believing its safe to sell because drilling news is a few weeks away, only to find a non-drilling related whopper RNS lands just when you least expect it. How many times does that happen eh? Unfortunately, the market is designed to take your shares off you precisely at the wrong time and then cruelly take your cash off you buying them back again, at precisely the wrong time. Best to sit very tight when you know the company is in a transformational phase and try not to out-smart the market IMO