Member Info for 100notout

An insulting offer if there ever was one...

LMI would probably double if the Board were to ditch the takeover which could happen within the next few months... If the PGMs were to carry on rising it will catapult upwards.

If the Board at LMI renege on the proposed takeover and give a positive update the shares will rocket. The current mkt cap of less than £200m is looking rather ridiculous. The Board refused an offer in 2008 of $10b from Xstrata as it was deemed too low... LMI since have had numerous rights issues. I believe the tide is turning for LMI and the Board should do what's in the best interest for Lonmin shareholders and that's not selling the company off for peanuts...

I will delve into Amplats but its good to see at last you maybe seeing the potential that LMI holds.

Thank you for the link Rastuss. I agree that the PGMs stocks have had a few decent months but they have had years of demise. Most commodities have cycles and pt has bottomed out imho. SGL have had a torrid time with fatalities, debt worries and unions etc and their share price was taken down too far and because of the proposed takeover took LMI down with it too. I think that if LMI were not stabled with sgl they would probably be closer to 200 than the current 70.

At least LMI have the problem with regards to the furnace runs. I don't believe SGL have furnaces, refining and smelting facilities do they? These facilities must be worth $200m alone. The Board have no option to renege on this takeover. Pd has reached $1600 and Rh is close to $3200. This is no time be throwing in the towel.LMI has a future and it will be a much brighter one if it stands as an independent company imho...

I think the pt price will rise a lot more than most analysts think. It is being held down because of the supply demand situation but it only takes 2% of the gold bulls to switch into pt to change this. I think this will happen in the next eighteen months and when this does LMI will rise beyond expectations. This is why I will be voting against the merger. The Board have not acted in the best interests of all shareholders... The situation has turned in LMI's favour. Now SGL need LMI rather than the reverse.

I have to disagree Davde with regards to circumstances not changing. LMI no longer have the banking covenants that were holding LMI back. Compare the safety record between the two companies, SGL has been shocking. Compare the relationships with regards to the unions. SGL's gold operations are poor. LMI is cash positive, look at the debt SGL has. SGL is facing legal suites in the U.S. I could go on but I think the circumstances have changed significantly. Oh and the basket price has increased and the ZAR/USD has weakened. LMI presents a compelling investment imho...

As a LMI holder I don't want to be diluted into a company that has numerous problems. I am happy to wait a few years for the pt price to increase as the potential rewards will be huge. I think that a few large institutions will vote in favour but I don't think they will get 75% as required.

Take a look at the remainder of the PGM basket. If pt rises by another 20% the LMI full year profit will be larger than the current mkt cap. This deal makes no sense at all for LMI holders. If for any reason they think LMI would be better off taking the SGL offer it would make better sense to invest directly into SGL...
I will not be voting for this deal and I know that I am not alone. If pt rose by another 20% a potential bidder would offer a bit more than what SGL currently have on the table. North of 300 would be the starting point imho.

I really can't see the deal going through... It makes absolutely no sense to go ahead with the deal. The longer it goes on the less likely the deal will proceed on the current terms. I wouldn't be surprised if another potential bidder comes in. If this happens maybe LMI holders will at least get some value as what's currently on the table is a joke...

Whatamess - I have been saying for a long time that the deal undermines and undervalues the true worth of Lonmin. The Board unfortunately have made numerous mistakes but aligning us with SGL under the current terms is absolutely ridiculous and the biggest mistake of them all. SGL will suffer as Eskom have hiked up the electricity costs which will have minimal affects on the platinum mining but be quite damaging for gold mining. SGL has a poor reputation in S.A and has many enemies. The relation they have with the unions is fraught, they face upcoming law suits in the U.S, their safety record has been poor and they are highly leveraged. I could go on... Lonmin has no debt, a large resource, better relationships with unions etc, Its own smelter and refineries etc and is a pure PGM play. The current valuation is a joke.

Current price circa $2930. Which is nearly $1000 higher from the last results. Lonmin produces roughly 100,000 oz pa. Surely even this Board can make a decent profit this year. The current valuation is just ridiculous. The share price should be multiples of the current price. When will the market wake up... There are one project mining companies without infrastructure (basically a field) valued higher than this.

I think 200 would still be to low Ta. The market will wake up at some point and realise the current takeover is out of kilter with the current higher PGM prices and weaker Rand. The Board need to relinquish the current offer as its not in the best interest of any of the stakeholders in LMI. If the Board were to deliver a positive statement and explain that the current offer is not in the best interest of all stakeholders the shares would fly.

The pt rise of about 10% in the last week or so helps the situation. The LMI Board have made many mistakes but agreeing to this so called takeover is the biggest of the lot...

Or Lonmin could stay independent for a year or two and be valued at £4 -5 per share. I think you will find Ta that Ruffer are not alone. The offer is so 2017...

I very much doubt the SGL holders have any reservations with regards to the deal as they are giving up very little for what will be a very valuable asset. Lonmin have net cash, they have the lowest PE ratio in the mining sector, the book value which has been heavily written down is still multiples of the mkt cap. I don't think its going to be as easy as Jabba thinks it will be. If a larger cash offer were to come in at say 125p per share do you think Jabba would walk away?

Or you could equally phrase it that LMI holders only need 25% of the vote to remain independent.

Rastuss; you once compared Lonmin to Toys R Us, right now I would prefer to be sitting on a huge amount of PGM's than a lot of cheap plastic toys made in China...

I will be saying no to the current offer Ta. Rastuss did correctly point out last year that the offer was literally an option. As I have mentioned a lot of positives have happened since then. If PGM prices fell and the Rand had strengthened I doubt Jabba would have honoured his takeover of LMI. One could create "what if" scenarios for all companies and paint a nihilistic landscape but the current offer does not reflect a true valuation.

As LMI's prospects look better going forward it is quite possible that another player might like to have exposure to platinum. I wouldn't rule out Bristow now that he is in charge of Barrick. Purchasing LMI for him now would be small change...