Member Info for 100notout

Rastuss - A lot has changed since the issue of the takeover document. Its about 17 months old...
Note; Sale of interest in Petrozim, No banking covenants, higher bp price, weaker ZAR and lets not forget that LMI made a profit last year...

With regards to Jabba picking LMI for a song that's what he is trying todo with the current offer. May I point out for those who don't know the offer from SGL is not a cash offer. I can't see potential receivers accepting SGL shares...

Looks like all this talk about business rescue is propaganda in order to try to persuade LMI holders to vote for the SGL takeover. I think it's looking as though more holders are feeling confident of the potential future of LMI. It wouldn't surprise me that a predator is waiting in the wings to acquire SGL if they are successful in obtaining LMI. Bristow is on the hunt and I wouldn't rule him out...

I doubt Uncle Joe's intelligence but I don't think that he is stupid enough to strike at Lonmin...

Hello Rastuss - That's the point, I don't think the LMI Board have a good handle on their financial situation. The problem is far as I see it is that LMI have been strangled by PIC whom own 30% of LMI. I think that the Board have acted as they are the only shareholder and that they call the shots behind the scene imho. They were previously constrained by the banks with regards to the banking covenants. Although LMI have the streaming deal they have no bank loans. SGL however have a much larger streaming deal and have large bank borrowings. The Board have been inefficient with regards to seeking alternative financing. Their plan has been to go cap in hand to shareholders but they can't now because of PIC holding 30%. PIC can't underwrite as they would then have to bid for the whole company which they don't want to do.

It is highly unlikely that the mining license will be taken away. The current situation is not too dissimilar to Brexit with regards to the Board wanting the deal to go through and painting a bleak picture. It seems rather ironic that the Board decided to carry on mining and not making retrenchments years ago when it was necessary and then to reverse this decision when PGMs are on the rise. Unfortunately the LMI Board are about as much use as British politicians. My trust and faith in both has diminished to oblivion... When pt rises LMI will once again have its day and I personally think that it is not too far away....

Pd has dropped a couple of hundred points in the last few days but was anticipated as it has risen strongly during the last year. SGL is more prone to the movements of pd due to the Stillwater operation.

Mark Cutifani from Anglo American was bullish on pt saying 'it will come roaring back' at the FT commodities global summit yesterday. Like I have said before I don't think that we are too far away from this happening. LMI need a new Board though because they would probably require pt to be $3000 to be able to make a profit...

Been busy again... I wonder what's behind their recent purchases.

This is just one big setup imho. It's hard to read an article on LMI with no mention of Marikana. Virtually every analyst has been negative and given ridiculous targets. The banks have been harsh. The govt treats LMI like the dept of social care and the unions are unrealistic. The Board have done sweet FA and have eroded billions... They have no backbone and should go. I certainly won't be voting for this joke of an offer...

The article highlights the decline of the price of pt however it seems to neglect the huge increase of pd which represents about 25% of production. I agree that a decent cash offer is warranted. So many positives have happened for LMI since the announcement of the takeover. Remember - No banking covenants, weaker ZAR, higher bp price... This deal is like the Board. One big joke....

Yes I agree Ta - Its SGL buying itself out of trouble. Froneman probably knew his gold assets were in dire straits. The offer for LMI holders is poor, lets face it even if he has to pay £2 he is getting a bargain. The LMI board have acted like headless chickens, instead of saying how bad things are they should grow a pair and be positive and get the results they should be getting. If they can't they should do the honourable thing and make way for people who can. They have eroded billions and should be ashamed but no they take the piss and reward themselves with more shares. Shameful...

It wouldn't surprise me if the next results aren't that great as the powers that be are desperate to get this deal done. The Board have pinned their colours to the mast and is plain to see that they want this deal to go through. I wished they were so candid when they went cap in hand to shareholders with regards to the rights issues. I will not be voting in favour of the takeover and I will be voting against everything this Board propose as their record is absolutely shocking. To think that they turned down a $10b offer as it was deemed too low and they now have the gall to recommend an offer which values the company close too £200m is an utter joke.

I think there is a good possibility that the deal will be voted down. If it is I wouldn't be surprised to see 200 plus as you suggest.

Couldn't go today Ta. Did you manage to go? The Board are still fixed on the takeover it seems.

Going solo is the only way. The Board have to do what's best for all shareholders. They must realise by now the deal is horrendous.

Whatamess - The increase in the other PGMs outweigh Pt's current weakness. I disagree with SGL offering safety. They have large debt, problematic relations with the unions, dreadful safety record, U.S law suites, poorly performing gold mines etc. LMI on the other hand have net cash, good relationships with the unions, good safety record and are a pure PGM play. The mkt cap of £200m is ridiculous. This is so undervalued using any parameter such as forward pe, bv etc...

Whatamess - Yes... There is potential in SGL but the rise in LMI could be substantial within the next three years. The current valuation is a joke. If Pt rises to the levels I believe then forget the chatter on here of 100 it will far surpass that.

I don't think they should bother negotiating with Froneman. If he was running LMI right now what do you think he would do. He would most probably walk away and say come back in three years when he could sell the business for 5x more.

Ta - I reckon if the Board decided to pull out of the takeover the shares would double in the short term and increase further with the probable increase of pt. The mkt cap of £200m is far too low, lets face it it would probably cost 10 times that to replace.