Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I note that Qube have reduced to below 0.5% and Wace have added. I'm sure with a large delegation from Softbank visiting THG it must make the hedge funds somewhat jittery. It seems that every PE firm and his dog has had discussions with MM so maybe Softbank want to rekindle their relationship before THG strike a deal with another party and let's face it they have the money too. Interesting development nonetheless.
I think MM should use about £50m for a share buyback. With a few more Ingenuity wins the city may perhaps start to give it some value. I think the H&H is a good win but I feel they will sign some deals which will make this look small. I can't believe THG have a MKT cap of less than £1Bn when Ocado is closer to £5Bn. Apollo could see the value and shareholders can but the market can't, or perhaps they can but want to keep the price low to facilitate a takeover. Time will tell but I think it's going to be an interesting and rewarding year for THG holders.
Ironically I seem to remember Marshall or Wace donating money to the leave campaign as it would be better for British business. More likely to result in a better shorting opportunity for them.
In all fairness though Brexit can't be blamed for everything, there have been other issues which have caused havoc like covid, Ukraine war and rising inflation resulting in increased interest rates. Considering all these factors THG haven't done too badly. I think they have been oversold and if they are pushed down much lower it will spark off another round of takeover talks. The present market value doesn't reflect the true value of THG, it's just an ascribed value on a given day dictated by relatively little trade. Add in the short selling from hedge funds and its exaggerated.
Hedge funds want to cause doom and gloom, it's how they make money. These boards enable them to spread their fear mongering. Their tactics are rather transparent. If the best they have is about radio silence from non exec's and gorillas then theres not much to say really. I have a longer term investment scenario than a few weeks and I think the tide will change here soon enough but that's my opinion. I think Moulding will surprise a few people.
It's just not retailers, it could be airlines, construction, banks, telecoms, engineering, you name it the FTSE has been dreadful. More than half of the ftse companies since 1999 have left due to being bought, broken up, gone bust or declined.
There needs to be reforms in order for it to survive and be meaningful rather than a waiting ground for cheap takeovers by foreign companies aided by hedge funds shorting the hell out of them. It's a complete and utter farce.
"Lots of companies do well on LSE like M&S, Next, Tesco etc generally. THG is different to them because CEO’s don’t own their real estate and rent it out to their own entities. Their accounts are 100% transparent and their cash on hand is real (not rolled into equivalent cash which means in used borrowing facilities). They have track records of good governance and answer any question at their share holders meeting, they have truly independent renown trusted BOD members. THG is MM’s private project with little regard and indeed sustain for shareholders,"
I think you should look at the share price performance of MKS and TSCO on the LSE over the last 25 years. You have to be having a laugh or taking the proverbial if you think they have done well. Perhaps a lot of you haven't been investing for that long but in many cases the share prices were higher then. The main driving forces for the decline are the reluctance of UK pension funds to invest in the UK, hedge fund manipulation and a negative press. I have a holding also in DARK and the way they have been treated is a disgrace. Bogus reports by hedge funds have been unpunished when they have made millions. They should be serving time in prison and face fines but instead they are allowed to get away with it. Why? It's because many of the large hedge funds make political donations just like the gun lobbyist's in the US and whatever happens they are allowed to get away with it. The hedge funds are untouchable under the current government, our Prime Minister used to be one... Perhaps, that is another reason for the depressed share prices is the fact that the Conservatives will be out later this year not that the LSE has surged under their Governance. Perhaps the city will do better under a labour government, they could start by ditching the unpopular inheritance tax and replacing the revenue by taxing the hedge funds at 70%. What's not to like about that. :-)
Whilst the THG valuation is so low thanks to the hedge funds the BOD should take advantage and commence a share buy back. MM reportedly thinks THG's value is far higher, then he should put his money where his mouth is and do something about it. It wouldn't get rid of the hedge funds as it hasn't with DARK but at least its share price has risen from 200 to 350 since commencement. Reducing shares will also increase EPS and in the advent of a takeover it will increase the bid price.
I was under the impression that the final year will be March 2025. It's best to err on the side of caution, hopefully by then we should have seen a strong recovery in the spodumene price. If it comes before then we get a Bernie bonus.
In the meantime we have the gold updates to look forward to.
I don't have a problem with a long RNS as long as it's positive news, which I'm sure it will be. Perhaps if he goes into detail investors will have the information and refrain from contacting him and let him carry on to do what he is there for, to build shareholder value.
There will be demand for lithium going forward just as there will be for oil. It wasn't that long ago that oil was trading at under $10 and every trader and his dog were saying it's the end etc and now look at the price. It's a way for the patient to make money out of the impatient. In short, the current lithium price is irrelevant as Kod isn't producing and won't be until the end of the year. Having said that if it were it would still be profitable.
Kod had a remarkable 2023 considering it has been substantially de-risked having funding for Bougouni and has had a 40% resource upgrade which with more positive drilling can grow a fair bit more. It also received $17m for proving up the gold projects.
The current Kod share price is a reflection of looking in the rear view mirror instead of looking at what's in front. The mkt cap of £66m is beyond belief as it should be multiples of this. As to why the share price is lower today than before the company changing news is questionable.
Well said Compo.
The disruptors are there for a reason and that's trying to dissuade others from buying so they can buy them up cheaply themselves. Ask yourself, would you go and waste your time bashing a stock! They are best filtered and ignored.
They can be a telltale sign happening on companies before a takeover as the acquirer will want to subdue the share price. If the share price stays at these levels for long I wouldn't be surprised if Hainan bid. They could have had discussions with Bernie already. He has skin in the game so I doubt he would accept anything less than 1p. I doubt he would even entertain that because he probably thinks it has to be worth double that in a few years.
With the share price at these levels I think we could see a placement at around 55 in the coming months. I think the share price has been pushed up for it and it looks a bit high having said that a bid from the likes of LVMH is a real possibility. Personally I wouldn't want that as I think Chapel Down has a bright future as they are making some fantastic wines and I can only see them only getting better with a greater understanding of the terroir.
My only concern is how they are going to fund the new winery. I expect a share placing will happen in the next 6 months, probably the reason for listing on AIM. I think the latest shareholder survey was a fishing exercise to gauge shareholders ideology of investment and will be a baring on how they proceed with regards to financing. I doubt it will be solely done by borrowing.
This time last year I remember all the doom and gloom and certain posters were saying this was going to 0.10 etc and then look what happened. No doubt the same will happen again as the lithium price will recover and with gold currently priced at $2070 it won't be long until we get some updates on drilling and potential deals.
This year was pivotal for Kod as we now have a partner for Bougouni and a big increase in resource, this is huge news yet the share price languishes at these levels. It was higher in mid 2021 with no licence and no partner. Kod's price is clearly being manipulated but the true value will prevail in time. Bernie will come good for shareholders again in 2024 as he hasn't let us down so far. I would believe what he has to say rather than a lot of fake news you read on these boards.
If you haven't done so already use the filter button and refrain from communicating with certain posters. Wishing all genuine Kod holders a happy and prosperous new year.