Member Info for 0715

Above $2.6 now as long as it reaches above $3+ by the end of October when it peaks then all is good.

Looking good at the moment.

Note its 0.15cents - 15% tax /$1.32 conversion so works out about 0.097p

Looks like share price heading towards 33p

Need to see gas above $2.5, all oil and gas stocks are taking a hammering, even Green renewables as power price forecasts are down.

Rusty needs to put stop on any more purchases unless they are very cheap, focus on existing assets and ride out the price cuts, as it stands could go to £6 or £16 depending on gas price. Nothing major wrong with company, in fact very effecient operationally, and rates coming down so debt not an issue.

Its mainly to do with the Henry Hub Gas price which has been pretty much low all year. Although a lot of the Gas is hedged there is a 20-30% element which isnt and the low prices reduce the profit on that. There's also the significant cost of the Hedging which eats into the hedge price achieved.

if average HH price above $2.5 across the year will make a big difference on profitability.

The next 2 quarters are when Gas prices rise, if there is a uptick the HH gas prices and further cuts in interest rates then DEC will rise significantly.

After this mess Inglis needs to go.

The property sales need to go through could have sold them for a lot more of he would have listened earlier, and more of the empty need refurbishment or selling quick, the rent which has been falling from around £75 million to £65 millio now needs to go back upto £80 m after refurbs and lettings.

More companies are returning back to the office, so dont know why inglis is performing so bad. Clearly big management issues at this REIT.

On the face of it doesn't look a brilliant deal. At 3.8 earning payback when previous acquisitions were much cheaper at 2.2.

Also his paid in shares which are currently rock bottom price so big dilution.

The only positives are the land acreage if he can sell that off, the pipelines which maybe useful, and the synergies he recons he can get with the existing adjacent wells.

Overall he needs to get a lot smarter, people have worked him out that alot of what he says and does is not to be believed.

He needs to stick to existing assets and only buy wells around 2 times earnings, at the moment his paying double on low gas prices and trying to make it look like a good deal.

Finally getting somewhere. £22 million under offerand another £20 million under negotiations.

Total £42m if LTV is 55% should leave £20m free after £22m is repaid loans.

With the other cash £35m+20m that should cover the £50m bond.

More sales to follow should turn round this sinking ship, shame inglis didn't do it 18 months ago, would have got much better prices.

This isn't rocket science, Inglis only needs to sell £80 million of offices, call it at 11% yield. His made the situation bad by in action.

And the situation would be stabilised.

Don't know why his hanging on, he needs to call his mates I other REITS/property sector who have cash to buy a good 11% yield.

The dividend should be paid in script not cash.

This is bieng made into a debacle, the market is valuing the company at £60million plus debt now far from the so called NAV.

Wake up Inglis get a move on.

This will continue downward until the big sales are announced.

A couple of years ago the portfolio was worth over £900 million and now £700, and dropping around £20 million every quarter.

If inglis would have sold earlier could have sold £200 million of assets and still have £700 million today. The debt would have gone down by £200 million.

Still one last chance left to dispose before the it breaks covenants (in 4 months time) and goes bust i, time is running out, very badly run.

If he would have listened to me months ago we wouldn't be in this mess. Every inheritance REIT has sold offices at NAV so it's not a case case they won't sell. Inglis is choosing not to sell.

He needs to pull his finger out and get rid of £100 million of assets. Sure the dividend might need rebating but if the NAV is really that high then its the best way ford to get things under control, rather than rights issues, etc.

The longer this goes on the more trouble it will cause. Get a move on.

Sales under 20p today.

Bcpt REIT sold some offices taking a 6% hit since thier December valuation.

Definitely going to breach the LTV. Why isn't inglis selling whilst every other REIT can manage to sell office assets?

We know that the NAV will fall another big % probably down from £700 to £600 by the mid year so another £100 million which he could have sold off.

Why does his want the share price to go to 10p?

Not rocket science, just need to sell some property quick and all will be stabilised.

Inglish has secured main debt at a low 3.5% so doesn't want to sell. The problem is debt not cash flow, he needs some proceeds to cover the £50 million and also to narrow the NAV if it is really £700 of offices if he sells what difference will it make on the fund if it goes to a £600 million fund.

The guy is running it like a private old school property company but the market works different and is concerned about risks.

The sooner he listens the quicker this can be turned around.

Needs to sell a office £50Million quickly to fix the balance sheet, other smaller sales can continue in the background, Doesnt really matter about the loss of earnings debt is the problem at the moment,

If Steve Inglis doesn't sell properties within the next couple of months the covenants will be breached. They have only sold 3.5% of the assets in the whole year. They need to wake up and smell the coffee. The whole thing has 10 months left.

Valuation down by 11%

Rental down by 6% - £4 Million

Rent Collection down by 1.5%

Occupancy down by 3.4%

LTV up by 6% heading to breaches within months

Nothing positive about the update and all other REITS are reporting similar for offices, no turnaround in sight yet.

As can be seen below from Picton/commentators in the game the Office Market is struggling. If they cant sell these properties they need to change of use them to residential or other quickly.

"With the 30% weighting to offices continuing to blight the portfolio as working from home shows no signs of coming to an end. Office prices were down 2.4%.

Morris also secured ‘valuable residential permitted development rights’ that will allow the trust’s offices in Angel, London, to be turned into flats, which will ‘maximise future disposal proceeds’.

Gilligan noted that the UK property sector is still considering with a number of macro issues, with interest rates still high, credit conditions tightening, and ‘uncertainty over where flexible working will settle in terms of office and home mix and toughening environmental standards’."

RGL haven't sold much, they don't seem able to sell. With other REITS reporting office values dropping just under 3% a quarter that NAV will be heading towards covenant levels soon.

Don't know what the delay is in selling, we have hardly had many sales announcedin 6 months, the office market is weak so no point waiting till it recovers as we're losing 3% value every 3 months.

Heading towards £8 in a big downward pattern.

The CFO Leaving should have sent some signals, Rustys comms are poor, with complex derivatives and losses, the Methane issue, alot of debt with rates high, and now Bidens new tax will be another overhead. Not much positive except a shaky dividend.

Until Interest start to drop Rusty needs to sell some more non productive assets and keep on producing the gas, dishing out the dividend, and keep up the buy backs.

Should stabilise then, until then there is more short term liabilities than assets.

Not looking to good with occupancy down 2% per quarter, 8% per year its going to increase costs significantly.

Rental has declined from £72million and keeps falling every quarter.

The LTV has crept up, note they are still working on June valuations and the market has fallen since.

The cash situation has gone -£20million in 3 months without any explanation, where has the money gone, quite worrying if that much cash is being hemorrhaged.

Minimal sales achieved, need to press on with sales.

What's clear is Inglis is quite professional and convincing salesman on his performance, but if study the figures, they actually show declines.

Agricole - if you take a lower rate of decline eg 4% a quarter then over 4 quarters from June 2023 thats 16% and breach of ltv.

Gross value of property as at June 2023 is £752 million.

Decline of 16% makes the properties value at £631 million. Loans are £393 million. So that would give a ltv of 62%.

As you say we're expecting sales but there's no signs of any sales yet.

The main thing to question is why would you wait to sell your offices knowing they are declining 4 - 6% every quarter. Your going to lose £120 to £180 million in value sitting on them over a year.

There seems to be no momentum.

Agricore - a 5.9% drop per Quarter is 23.6% annual drop for bcpt offices, thats fairly massive. Every REIT is reporting that the office market is falling in value.

if this happens to Regional REIT the covenant will breach by March next year.

Currently the LTV is 53% - last results were upto mid year so 3 quarters of -5.9% drops = -17.5% drop which takes it above 60% ltv.

Sales sales sales quick needed.