RE: Somethings brewing chaps31 Mar 2018 11:57
We all know that AJE is primarily a gas condensate field and not a major oil field- the fact that it contains oil that can be extracted at a profit should be seen as a bonus but we need to keep our eyes on the prize - the huge gas reserves that couldnt be closer to a major pipeline (WA) or a major economic centre (Lagos- said to account for over 35% of nigerias economic activity if my memory serves me well).
Once up and running AJE should be producing between 50-100k boe/d our share being 2.5k-5k a day! Lets use the 2.5k figure for now- assume profits at a measly $20 (we are earning well more than that right now) and this gives a yearly profit of $17m from AJE. Thats the worse case scenario from all the info I have come across in my time here. Lets reduce it even further to $10m for any other scenario you can think of and include in this reduction costs keeping the lights on. Usual PE for a producer (which we are now and have been since AJE went online) is 15-20. Lets use 10 (why? To give another worst case scenario!). Using above figuresi could say i see a future mcap of $100 but lets reduce it by half to $50m (£35million) (hopefully you get the jist that by now even this worse case scenario is unlikely). Compare it to where we are now £11m! The sp at current share numbers equates to over 2p - the 1 thing no one can predict is the future dilution but all my above 'worst case scenario reductions' offset upto 100% dilution (unlikely to ever get approved)
My figures of a min 2p before selling out havent changed and likely on CPR being released will be revised ipwards.
Stefan bring on the CPR - watch the floodgates open when he does! Think afew leaks sprung open in the ship on friday ;-)
ATB folks- with this and BMN think the million quid i wanted in the bank might come by sooner than I thought!
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