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"It doesn't make sense, man, to be drunk. It's Wednesday day time. Where are they!"

That list of 10 questions has grown and they are still in Q&A

I think this is the closest we have been to answering what is the plan....

Potential for additional producer on Lancaster, with first oil in 2023
• Opportunity for further development on Lancaster if successful
• At current oil prices could be funded from balance sheet cash
• Would limit alternative diversification strategies (e.g., M&A) in the near term, but could be combined depending on opportunity
• Need to consider the impact of the Energy Profits Levy
Organic Growth
• Provides diversification
• Considering both gas and oil opportunities, mainly focussed on the UKCS
• Currently engaged with multiple potential targets, detailed evaluations are ongoing
• See potential in near term developments where it is possible to recycle cashflow into future growth
• Focus is on value delivery, ESG commitment and regional growth

From the presentation
M&A - Currently engaged with multiple potential targets, detailed evaluations are ongoing

500m in the bank does equal 25p per share.
However if ther company had 500m in the bank now then you would expect the shareprice to be significantly north of 25p, however if they stopped trading and decided to distribute the funds to the shareholders at that point then you would be given 25p. Assuming no debts and costs.

HUR can chip away slowly at the tax credit but it's not going to make a big difference because the tax credit is so large.

To a buyer who's company makes $1.6b profit this year, would be due to pay $400m tax.

Buying HUR would mean that they don't pay that tax which saves them $400m

So if they did a deal for HUR at $400m, then they would get the free cash in hur, the lease, and $30m extra revenue per month for nothing.

If HUR made a taxable profit this year of $300m it would need to be subtracted from the 1.6b, not the $400m which is the tax relief.

So yes it would take it down but not by much.
As flyingpie says that money would also then be free cash in the companies bank so the buyer would get it anyway.

To the right buyer a takeover at 15 to 20p would be an exceptional deal for them.

Amazingly HUR have a $1.6b tax credit
This means their profit would need to be 1.6b and they would save $400m in tax on this.

I think any bid with a chance or success would need to be 15p min.
CA have said that they value the company above 15p. Despite the rollercoaster I wouldn't vote to approve a sub 15p takeover either.

The tax credits alone are worth 16p per share in tax savings to a buyer, so at a 16p takeover they would effectively be getting the company for free as ~£400m would come off their next tax bill.

To the right buyer a 16p takeover would be genius for them. With the cash in the bank it's probably not until 21p before the deal would actually be costing them anything.

I like your thinking FlyingPie, good shout with the mid terms. Will be interesting to see if they do act now or focus all their efforts a bit closer to the voting.

ASI - possible, but the flip side of that coin is it escalates tensions with America at a time when Biden has just said he would go to war with China to protect Taiwan.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/18/joe-biden-xi-jinping-call-china-russia-ukraine

Looks a good time to pull up this thread.

Several factors pushing the price up further.

Airlines - despite cancelled flights it's still about to surge it's demand.

China increased demand as it chills out about caging everyone.

America reversing emptying it's strategic reserves and instead also pulling on demand as it seeks to top them back up.

China escalating tentions with Taiwan.

Iran casuing trouble in the shipping lanes again.
Last time we had to have naval ships escorting tankers through.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Greece-Warns-Shipping-Lanes-Not-Safe-From-Iran.html

My prediction for the year high oil price remains $161

Not saying twitter is the best source for tax advice but this accountant sees the windfall tax in a way that it will cause larger oil companies to buy up all the smaller ones.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jrearty/status/1529811141471395841

Thanks Mirasol, shame.

I guess that does leave JV, given the tax incentive I can't imagine HUR won't take advantage , and the same is true of everybody else, so there should be plenty of opportunities for HUR which I think would be the best bet to make the most of the situation.

Ultimately it pushes them to get another well going, and gives them 90% tax relief for doing so.
I think most people wanted them to do this anyway.

I've not had chance to dig in to the details of the windfall tax. The question that springs to my mind is does M&A qualify for 90% windfall tax relief ?
Has anyone digged in to the detail of the new tax and knows with certainty?

This latest payment of around $56m will not be subject to the tax. That pumps a good chunk of additional free cash in to bank tax free.

Tax is rubbish, but if M&A qualifies for the 90% relief then it offers 2 big befitis to HUR.

Totally agree being cash rich as HUR has found itself right now when inflation is so high and interest rates start to go up is a good position.

That's why I'm willing to be somewhat patient with HUR spending the cash. As interest rates climb their will be companies which are in debt, struggling to raise more cash and the cost of servicing that debt will climb.
That's a great market market for HUR to be buyer and get a deal that it might be too soon to be able to get right now.

HUR couldnt be debt free and building up the bank balance at a much better time.

HUR 25p+ 2022

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/view/692/220

Exactly, that's where I am at. Maybe CA are thinking the same.

25p return, maybe 35p+ with some good oil prices and well 6 going strong in 2023.

Why risk it when they could spend the money on drilling and not get good results and devalue the SP.

Also building up the cash so we are cash rich to buy other projects at a low price which may be struggling in 12 or 24 months the time the way the economy is going.

I do like going after it, but I can very much see the logic of not doing so.

HUR 25p+ 2022 believe ;-)

DYOR2 - I strongly do believe 25p is happening this year, I want to see you doing the 25p dance.

By the end of this year we will have around £200m free money in the bank.
That's around 10p a share in free cash alone.
This excludes the possibility of oil prices going mental e.g $150, $200, etc

Tax credits are worth 8p to 16p per share

So that's a shareprice of 18p to 25p without even one months forward looking pottential.

At that point it's probably reasonable to forward look for 12 months production, we are a bit far out to predict at this stage but that could easily be another £200m especially if oil prices go up significantly which I believe they will.

So 25p certainly by December is almost a given imo.

At any point the company could use it's £200 to £400 free cash to do something, be that on its own or with another company.

I like everyone else wants a plan, but at sub 10p a share the company is filling the bank as we speak it's a matter of time before 25p sp is hit. If the company wasn't making a lot of money I wouldnt have the same patience, but they are building up a very decent war chest.

Bro you have some strange dreams haha.

A nice dream would be oil between $150 and $200 and $100m oil sales landing in the bank every 2 months until 2025.

What would that be worth per share 60p ish.

HUR 2022 25p+ it's happening.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-NOPEC-Bill-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-To-300.html

I can't see it happening, but an uplift at $300 would see BP make a payment to HUR in a single month which would be equivalent to around 8p per share.

"I think this is just a case of patience and waiting for those lifts to be made. At $100pb, Hurricane will have over half its current market cap in free cash by the end of the year (Post CB payment)."

It's better than that ...
$106m free cash was already in the bank in March
CB's are only $78m

We should be getting another $55m ish for May's uplift.

So free cash in July after the lift should be around $100m which is just over half of the current market cap.
By the end of the year the free cash should be higher than the current market cap.

This is all based on a do nothing but pump the oil scenario. Hopefully they will be more adventurous.