U.S. natgas futures ease as production rises, softer demand

Wed, 30th Jul 2025 15:00

July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Wednesday as higher production and forecasts for milder weather that are expected to reduce cooling demand weighed on prices.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 10.30 cents, or 3.3%, to $3.04 per million British thermal units at 09:39 a.m. EDT, after hitting its highest level since July 23 earlier in the session.

"It appears that the market is showing at least for now an ample supply," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

With the market now trading September futures, prices are drifting slightly lower as September is typically associated with milder weather compared to August, Saal added.

Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, falling from 113 bcfd this week to 108 bcfd next week. It also estimated 235 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, down from 239 estimated on Monday. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius). Meanwhile, Shell-led LNG Canada is experiencing technical problems as it ramps up production at its liquefied natural gas plant at Kitimat, British Columbia, with one LNG tanker diverting away from the facility without the superchilled fuel in recent days, according to four sources and LSEG ship tracking data.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas contracts were largely steady after some initial gains, amid an unchanged short-term outlook but risks of increased competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be a concern.

Week Week Year Five-year
ended Jul ended Jul ago average
25 18 Actual Jul 25 Jul 25
Forecast

U.S. weekly +42 +23 +18 +24
natgas
storage
change
(bcf):

U.S. total 3,117 3,075 3,246 2,928 natgas in
storage
(bcf):
U.S. total +6.5% +5.9%
storage
versus
5-year
average

Global Gas This Prior Five-

Benchmark Current Prior Month Year Year Futures ($ Day Day Last Average Avera
per mmBtu) Year 2024 ge
(2019
-2023
)
Henry Hub 2.21 2.41 3.52
3.03 3.06

Title 10.32 10.95 15.47
Transfer 10.97 10.91
Facility
(TTF)

Japan Korea 12.32 11.89 15.23
Marker (JKM) - -

LSEG Heating
(HDD),
Cooling
(CDD) and
Total (TDD)
Degree Days
Two-Week
Total Current Prior 10-Year
Forecast Day Day Prior Norm 30-Ye
Year ar
Norm

U.S. GFS
HDDs 2 2 5 2
3

U.S. GFS
CDDs 235 239 180
203 172

U.S. GFS
TDDs 237 241 182
208 175

LSEG U.S.
Weekly GFS
Supply and
Demand
Forecasts
This Week Five-
Prior Current Last Year Year
Week Week Next (2020
Week -2024
)Aver
age
For
Month
U.S. Supply
(bcfd)

U.S. Lower 97.8
48 Dry 108 108.2
Production 108.0

U.S. Imports 7.8
from Canada 8.1 8.0
7.8

U.S. LNG 0.1
Imports 0.0 0.0
0.0

Total U.S. 105.7
Supply 116.1 116.3
115.8

U.S. Demand
(bcfd)

U.S. Exports 2.3
to Canada 2.1 1.9
1.9

U.S. Exports 6.4
to Mexico 6.8 6.8
6.9

U.S. LNG 10.0
Export 15.2 15.0
Feedgas 15.4

U.S. 4.7
Commercial 4.4 4.4
4.4

U.S. 3.5
Residential 3.6 3.6
3.5

U.S. Power 48.1
Plant 43.9 51.3
45.6

U.S. 21.7
Industrial 22.3 22.3
22.3

U.S. Plant 5.4
Fuel 5.3 5.3
5.3

U.S. Pipe 3.3
Distribution 2.2 2.4
2.2

U.S. Vehicle 0.2
Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1

Total U.S. 86.9
Consumption 81.8 89.4
83.5

Total U.S. 99.2
Demand 105.9 113.1
107.8

N/A is Not
Available

U.S. 2024 2023 2022
Northwest 2025 2025 % of % of % of
River Current Normal Normal Norma
Forecast Day Actual Actual l
Center Prior Actua
(NWRFC) at Day % of l
The Dalles % of Normal
Dam (Fiscal Normal Forecast
year ending Forecast
Sep 30)
Apr-Sep 74 83 107
77 77

Jan-Jul 76 77 102
78 78

Oct-Sep 77 76 103
80 80

U.S. weekly
power
generation
percent by
fuel - EIA
Week 2024 2023 2022
Week ended Jul
ended Aug 25
1

Wind 10 11 10 11
8

Solar 7 5 4 3
7

Hydro 5 6 6 6
4

Other 1 1 2 2
1

Petroleum 0 0 0 0
0

Natural Gas 41 42 41 38
44

Coal 19 16 17 21
19

Nuclear 17 19 19 19
16

SNL U.S.
Natural Gas
Next-Day
Prices ($
per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Prior
Day Day

Henry Hub
<NG-W-HH-SNL 3.08 3.11
>
Transco Z6
New York 2.85 2.89
<NG-CG-NY-SN
L>
PG&E
Citygate 3.28 3.24
<NG-CG-PGE-S
NL>
Eastern Gas
(old 2.48 2.56
Dominion
South)
<NG-PCN-APP-
SNL>
Chicago
Citygate 2.86 2.95
<NG-CG-CH-SN
L>
Algonquin
Citygate 5.00 6.25
<NG-CG-BS-SN
L>
SoCal
Citygate 3.45 3.44
<NG-SCL-CGT-
SNL>
Waha Hub
<NG-WAH-WTX- 0.9 1.26
SNL>
AECO
<NG-ASH-ALB- 0.24 0.22
SNL>

ICE U.S.
Power
Next-Day
Prices ($
per
megawatt-hou
r)
Hub
Current Prior
Day Day

New England
<E-NEPLMHP-I - 171.03
DX>
PJM West
<E-PJWHDAP-I 190.21 203.11
DX>
Mid C
<W-MIDCP-IDX 55.66 74.64
>
Palo Verde
<W-PVP-IDX> 43.59 52.38

SP-15
<W-SP15-IDX> 29.73 36.25