Trainline annual profit up but "headwinds" to hit near-term progress

(Alliance News) - Trainline PLC on Wednesday reported annual results in line with expectations but cautioned on a tough outlook amid a UK rail fare freeze and the economic hit from the Middle East conflict.

Trainline shares fell 7.1% to 222.40 pence each in London on Wednesday morning, the worst FTSE 250 performer.

The London-based rail and coach travel ticketing platform said pretax profit in the financial year that ended February 28 shot up 41% to GBP114.3 million from GBP80.9 million the year before, as revenue edged up 2.4% to GBP452.7 million from GBP442.1 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 11% to GBP177 million from GBP159 million. Net ticket sales climbed 7.0% to GBP6.32 billion from GBP5.91 billion.

"This has been a year of strong delivery for Trainline; with record net ticket sales and revenue, and continued double-digit growth in profitability. As carrier competition expands across Europe, we are positioning ourselves as the market aggregator. This tailwind catalyses our top line growth and improves profitability, with International Consumer set to breakeven for the first time this year," Chief Executive Officer Jody Ford said.

"We are leveraging AI to innovate at pace, launching AI-powered rail disruption features, integrating our app into ChatGPT and increasingly using tools and agents to transform how we operate."

Looking ahead, Trainline expects net ticket sales between GBP6.2 billion and GBP6.45 billion for the new year, an outcome which spans a 2% fall to 2% growth. Revenue between GBP440 million and GBP455 million is expected, so between a 3% decline and 0.5% growth.

Adjusted Ebitda as a percentage of net ticket sales is expected to improve to around 2.9% from 2.8%, "with International Consumer expected to breakeven this year".

"At the same time, we expect previously-flagged headwinds to weigh on near-term growth," it cautioned.

In the UK, headwinds include Transport for London's expansion of its contactless rail network, and the government's regulated fare freeze until March 2027.

"In Europe, they include a series of tragic rail accidents in Spain. In addition, the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe is also weighing on foreign travel sales," Trainline added.

Trainline pays no dividend. However, it noted on Wednesday that it bought back and cancelled GBP94 million in shares under its current buyback programme and has bought back GBP294 million - 23% of its share capital - in total since 2023.

By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor

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