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GOLD OFF PEAK, BUT OUTLOOK STILL SHINY - UBS (0925 GMT)
The price of gold has fallen from its early May peak above $2,000 an ounce. But CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management Mark Haefele believes the outlook is still shiny.
"...we still see potential gains for gold over the coming year, and we view the precious metal as a valuable hedge in portfolios," he writes in a note.
Firstly, the imminent end of Fed rate hikes and the potential for rate cuts soon is supportive of gold. This, coupled with the Bank of Japan's backing away from its ultra-loose monetary stance, should weigh on the dollar over the next 6-12 months, making gold less expensive for investors holding other currencies, says Haefele.
Though the IMF reported a decline in central bank gold holdings, the drop does not indicate a lack of enthusiasm for the yellow stuff, he adds.
"The Turkish central bank was reported as the major seller, but the World Gold Council believes these sales were due to local dynamics, rather than a change in the central bank's long-term strategy."
Finally, geopolitical and economic uncertainty are likely to boost safe-haven inflows to gold, and its relative performance versus the S&P 500 has historically improved significantly during U.S. recessions.
"We keep our forecast of $2,100/oz by year-end and $2,250/oz by mid-2024 unchanged," writes Haefele.
At 0928 GMT on Friday, gold was last down 0.3% on the day to $1,962.475 per ounce, but on track for a weekly gain as expectations grow for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged for the time being.
(Lucy Raitano)
EUROPE LIMPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK (0801 GMT)
European shares are treading water on Friday ahead of key risk events next week, while the chemicals sector is weak after a gloomy trading update from Britain's Croda International.
Shares in Croda, which counts Unilever and Procter & Gamble among its customers, are set for their biggest daily drop since August 2000 after a 14% fall following a profit warning.
This sent the European chemicals sector 1.6% lower, the biggest drag on the pan-European STOXX 600, which is trading flat.
Elsewhere, Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 area all little changed too, with eyes already turning to next week.
"Next week's Fed meeting and inflation data will be key," says Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown
"Markets are pricing in a rate pause with scope for further hikes down the line – Jay Powell's commentary will be analysed till the cows come home, expect a hawkish tone from the Fed Chairman if a pause is delivered."
The Fed announces its policy decision on Wednesday, a day after May's U.S. consumer price inflation data.
Here's your opening snapshot:
EUROPEAN FUTURES STEADY (0639 GMT)
European equity futures are trading broadly unchanged, after U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 finishing more than 20% above its October 2022 low.
EuroSTOXX 50 futures are up 0.07% and FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 contracts are all flat to up 0.1%.
U.S. equity futures are trading a little lower after the gains seen on Thursday.
In corporate news, Network International will be in focus after Brookfield Asset Management reached an agreement to buy the payments provider for 2.2 billion pounds ($2.76 billion).
Meanwhile, Citigroup published some relatively bullish forecasts for European equities, expecting the pan-European STOXX 600 to rise 9% by mid-2024 and the FTSE 100 to rise 8%.
(Samuel Indyk)
FRESH LIRA LOW, FOCUS ON FED (0558 GMT)
Another day, another market-positive appointment from Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and yet, another record low for the lira.
Erdogan is making all the right noises to signal a return to more orthodox policy, picking U.S. banking executive Hafize Gaye Erkan as head of the central bank. He had also named well-respected former finance minister Mehmet Simsek as minister in charge of the economy.
Even so, the lira is seemingly in freefall, reaching an unprecedented 23.54 per dollar in Asian hours and extending this month's drop to 12%.
"Talk is cheap," said NAB strategist Rodrigo Catril, summing up sentiment among investors. "The market needs to see it to believe it."
Of course, the Federal Reserve is still the central bank at the centre of global attention, headlining a huge week for monetary policy next week when the ECB and Bank of Japan also meet.
Asian equities rode on Wall Street's rally overnight - setting up Europe to do the same - after a jump in U.S. jobless claims boosted bets for the Fed to skip a rate hike next week.
However, surprise rate rises this week from central banks in Canada and Australia - which were both early pausers - have many analysts warning that the market may have grown complacent.
There's more confidence surrounding the ECB decision, with a quarter-point increase fully priced for Thursday, and the only question being when the next quarter-point bump will come - with September most likely.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has a chance to air his views at an event in Madrid.
Meanwhile, the BOJ is seen certain to leave stimulus settings alone next Friday, with Governor Kazuo Ueda telling parliament today that "there's still some distance" to reaching its policy goals.
Elsewhere, the face-off between the SEC and crypto exchanges intensified as Binance - the biggest - told customers of its U.S. arm that it's suspending dollar deposits and preparing to pause fiat withdrawal channels in response to what it called "extremely aggressive and intimidating tactics" by regulators.
The SEC supported freezing Binance's assets on Thursday, after suing the exchange and its founder at the beginning of the week, alleging a "web of deception" that included artificially inflating trading volumes and comingling customer funds.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
Sweden GDP and industrial production
Italy industrial output
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at conference in Madrid
(Kevin Buckland)
