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Broker tips: BAE Systems, Pace, Partygaming

Fri, 30th Jul 2010 13:17
Strong results and upgraded full year profits guidance has not been enough to overcome investor concerns about future prospects for BAE Systems, a situation acknowledged by Nomura Securities' decision to slice its price target for the defence systems firm.The broker is sticking with its "buy" recommendation despite chopping the price target from 450p to 410p "to account for a higher risk premium investors are likely to demand given the increased long-term budget uncertainty in the US and Europe.""Macro concerns about budgetary pressures have kept investors from focusing on the company's structural growth outlook and strong cash generation," argues Nomura analyst Jason Adams. Having met with the management of digital set-top box maker Pace in the wake of the company's interim results finnCap has nudged up its fiscal 2010 earnings estimates.The broker is now expecting full year profit before tax of £1,270m from £1,176m previously after the stronger than expected first half performance. "We are however broadly maintaining our FY11 forecasts at this point until further information is released on the proposed acquisition of 2Wire," finnCap said.On the subject of the proposed acquisition of the US networking gateway maker, the broker believes it makes strategic sense, despite the obvious cross-over with the Bewan acquisition completed during the first half of the year. "The proposed EV [enterprise value] cost of $425m, puts the acquisition on 0.9x EV/Sales but we suspect the estimated $30m of cost synergies can be exceeded. We estimate this acquisition will be up to 10% earnings accretive to FY11 and significantly higher thereafter," the broker said.The broker has a "buy" recommendation on the shares and a fair value estimate of 153p per share.Scale matters in online gaming which is why Peel Hunt is a fan of Partygaming's proposed merger with Austrian rival Bwin, describing it as potentially 'a match made in heaven.'The broker rates the shares a 'buy' and has its price target under review following Thursday's merger announcement.'After much rumour and on-off speculation, bwin and PartyGaming have at last announced their engagement, with the marriage due to take place early next year. On paper, this looks like a match made in heaven, but beautiful couples do not always make the best marriages. Joint- CEOs and differing cultures are just some of the challenges. That said, it is hard not to get excited by the most significant deal in the online industry to date,' analyst Nick Batram enthused.'If there is a hint of caution, beyond execution risk, it is that the percentage of revenues generated from unregulated markets will increase significantly from a PartyGaming perspective,' the broker continued.Batram thinks that Partygaming's estimate of €55m in potential synergies, at less than 10% of costs, could be conservative and suggests that the final figure could be at least €75m.'A counter offer for either company is unlikely, given the potential synergy benefits and compelling proposition of the enlarged group. The merger was also announced a day after Barney Frank's proposed online gaming bill was voted through the House Financial Services Committee; management was keen to highlight the view that they foresaw no impediment to the enlarged group entering the US, should the market open up. The shares may drift back a bit following yesterday's excitement, but as appreciation of the scale of the deal grows, the potential for a re-rating increases. We therefore remain buyers,' Peel Hunt concluded.

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