Last checked at 
* Nasdaq, S&P red; Dow modestly higher; Transports
outperform
* Tech, comm svcs weakest major S&P sectors
* Financials lead gainers
* Euro STOXX 600 ends down ~0.3%
* Dollar, crude rise; gold dips; U.S. 10-Yr Treasury yield
~1.62%
March 12 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THIS WAS EUROPE'S RETAIL WEEK (1156 EST/1656 GMT)
With the market price action almost entirely focused on the
Nasdaq's tug of war with U.S. Treasury yields, little attention
has been available for Europe's retail index, home of
Britain's Marks and Spencer, France's luxury group Kering and
H&M, the world's second-biggest fashion retailer.
And yet, that index has had its best week in over a decade,
actually since 2009 with an 8% jump which probably tells us
something about sentiment on the old continent despite new
lockdowns looming.
Germany's DAX also hit a few record highs during
the week and despite losing some ground today, it closed at
roughly 14,500 points, or only about 0.6% from its highest level
ever reached yesterday.
The pan-European STOXX 600 ends the session about 0.3% down
but for the week it enjoyed a 4.5% rise, which actually
constitutes its 5th best performance in the last 52 weeks.
That puts the benchmark index within kissing distance, or 10
points, from its February 2020, 433.9 record level.
It's probably fair to say that the recent rise in yields and
the U.S. 10 year crossing 1.6% hasn't unleashed the capitulation
some investors feared.
Fair to notice too however that European tech is feeling
some of the Nasdaq pain and lost about 2% today.
Here's the European retail index scoring its best week since
2009:
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
CONSUMERS GET SPRING FEVER AS ECONOMY HEATS UP (1100
EST/1600 GMT)
Data released on Friday showed a brightening consumer
outlook and an economy gaining heat as it heads into spring.
The two are, after all, closely linked. Consumer spending is
responsible for about 70% of U.S. economic growth. And with
stimulus on the way and vaccine deployment gaining speed, the
light at the end of the tunnel would seem to be growing
brighter.
Consumer optimism has warmed up considerably in March,
according to the University of Michigan's preliminary take on
consumer sentiment.
The index reached a reading of 83, its highest level in a
year, as the passage of stimulus and accelerating vaccine
deployment made an increasingly convincing case for a return to
economic normal.
Both the current conditions and expectations components
gained ground, reflecting declining new cases of COVID-19 and
patchwork regional economic reopenings.
Tellingly, sentiment among those hit hardest by shutdowns
and those who face the greatest risk from the coronavirus saw
the biggest improvement.
"The gains were widespread across all socioeconomic
subgroups and all regions, although the largest monthly gains
were concentrated among households in the bottom third of the
income distribution as well as those aged 55 or older," writes
Richard Curtin, chief economist of UMich's Surveys of Consumers.
In a separate report, producer prices (PPI)
rose by 0.5% last month according to the Labor Department,
inline with expectations and building on January's 1.3% surge,
the biggest jump in over a decade.
On an annual basis, PPI - or the prices U.S. goods producers
get for their wares at the factory door - grew at 2.8%, its
fastest pace in nearly 2.5 years.
"While underlying price pressures will inevitably heat up
amid a healthier, fiscally stimulated economy and strong base
effects, we believe inflation is unlikely to spiral out of
control," says Mahir Rasheed, associate U.S. economist at Oxford
Economics. "The Fed should therefore look through the transitory
spike and stick to a very dovish policy stance."
Stripping out food, energy, and trade services,
year-over-year PPI rose by 2.2%, edging above the central bank's
average annual 2% inflation target. Note, the Fed's preferred
inflation target is core PCE.
The graphic below shows where major U.S. inflation
indicators fall, relative to that magic 2% target:
Investor sentiment isn't quite as rosy as consumers', with
the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 in retreat.
The Dow is green, however, lifted by
economically-sensitive financials and industrials
. The Dow transports, seen by many as a
barometer of economic health, is outperforming.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
WALL STREET HEADS INTO WEEKEND WITH STIMULUS HANGOVER,
INFLATION JITTERS (1002 EST/1502 GMT)
Wall Street staggered from the gate on Friday, reeling from
a hangover brought on by a signed stimulus package and rising
Treasury yields.
In a turnabout from Thursday's session, which saw the Dow
, the S&P and the Russell 2000 claim
all-time closing highs, the tech-laden Nasdaq opened
sharply lower. The S&P 500 is dropping modestly, while the Dow
is the lone gainer among the three major indexes.
Tech and tech-adjacent megacaps Apple Inc,
Microsoft Corp, Tesla Inc, Amazon.com
, Facebook Inc and Alphabet Inc don't
seem happy unless they're out in front, and in early trading
they are leading the charge lower, weighing heaviest on the S&P
and the Nasdaq.
Rising Treasury yields are weighing on tech,
reigniting inflation jitters. Those jitters were little assuaged
by the Labor Department's PPI report, which showed
year-over-year producer prices rising at their fastest pace in
2.5 years.
Despite those jitters and the tug-of-war between tech and
cyclicals, all three major indexes have set a course to notch
their best weekly gains in five.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Stephen Culp)
*****
NASDAQ FUTURES: ONE WILD WEEK (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
CME e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures have been on a wild
ride this week. Although the futures are on track to post a gain
of around 1.5% for the week, it's been a vicious
down-up-down-up-down see-saw pattern. The average daily range as
a percentage of the prior day's close has exceeded 3%.
Meanwhile, although the futures were able to overwhelm an
hourly resistance line on Thursday, they were not able to
sustain that strength. They are now posting a fall of around
1.5% ahead of Friday's open:
The 76.4%/78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone of the early
March down-leg (13,063.69/13,088.36) is proving to be especially
tough to clear.
Over a span of 13 hours from early in Thursday's regular
session to overnight trade early Friday, the futures struggled
with this resistance zone. Although there was a spike to
13,119.25 yesterday afternoon, that thrust quickly faded. In
fact, the futures failed to record one hourly close above the
zone.
With the subsequent breakdown early Friday, they have now
violated the support line from the March 8 trough, putting them
on the back foot again.
Coming under the March 11 low (12,724.25), will end the
pattern of higher-lows since the March 5 trough, potentially
leading to increasing downside pressure.
A push back over the trendline from the February high, now
resistance again around 12,960, can see the futures make another
attempt to overwhelm the 76.4%/78.6% Fibonacci barrier.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR FRIDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT
- CLICK HERE:
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
