LONDON (Alliance News) - UK stocks are set to open fractionally lower Tuesday, following a strong bounce on Monday and ahead of the latest UK inflation data, as well as a busy day of important US corporate earnings and appearances by both the US and UK central bank heads.
Global stocks made significant gains on Monday, rebounding from being sold-off heavily at the end of last week amid concern of another European debt crisis emanating from Portugal. Sentiment also received a boost after the third biggest bank in the US, Citigroup, got the sector's second-quarter reporting season off to a good start by beating earnings expectations.
The better-than-expected numbers from the first of the big US banks to report helped the Dow Jones rally back above 17,000 to a new all time high. Although the DJIA slipped back a little from those early highs, it closed up 0.7% at 17,055.42, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%.
A broadly positive Tuesday trading session in Asia followed, where the Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy remain steady at the current 60-70 trillion yen annual expansion of its monetary base. The Nikkei closing up 0.7%, while the Hang Seng continues to trade up 0.4%, and the Shanghai Composite is lower by 0.1%.
After the FTSE 100 gained more than 0.8% on Monday to close at 6,746.14, futures trading now indicates the leading index will open a touch softer, down about 7 points at 6,739.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoke after the European close last night and appeared to begin to set the scene for full scale asset purchases, saying that quantitative easing "falls squarely" in the central bank's mandate.
Europe will remain in focus Tuesday, with former Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg at 1000 BST, followed by a vote at 1300 BST on his nomination to be president of the European Commission.
The central bankers keep coming Tuesday, with US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen providing the major focus of the day when she delivers her semi-annual testimony to Congress at 1500 BST.
Ahead of that, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will face the Treasury Select Committee of MP's and their questions over the central bank's June 26 financial stability report, with the hearing due to begin at 1000 BST. The committee will just about have time to look at the latest UK economic data from the Office for National Statistics, released at 0930 BST, before grilling Carney over his latest decisions.
UK consumer prices are expected to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in June, which would match the contraction recorded in May. On an annual basis, prices are expected to be shown to have risen by 1.6% in June, accelerating from 1.5% in April.
Released at the same time, the DCLG house price index is expected to show annual house price inflation of 10.2% year-on-year in June, which would be the first time in more than four years that the reading has reached double digits. Although Carney used the inflation report to introduce new rules on mortgage lending in an attempt to calm the market, it seems unlikely that he will get away from the Commons without some probing over risks of a UK housing bubble.
The German and Eurozone ZEW surveys of Economic sentiment at 1000 BST also will be of investor interest given the steady decline in sentiment recorded so far this year. The German ZEW has plummeted over the first half of the year from a reading in December of 62.0 to a low of 29.8 in June. Analysts are expecting the index to slide once again to 28.0 in July.
In the afternoon attention will turn to the US, Yellen, corporate earnings, and the release of retail sales data at 1330 BST. Given the US economy's reliance on the consumer and the hope for a big second-quarter turnaround in spending, the latest retail sales data will be just as important as the numbers due from the big corporate bellwethers still to come. Economists are expecting US retail sales to have grown by 0.6% month-on-month in June, accelerating from the 0.3% growth recorded in April.
The market also will have the earnings from some big US names to get its teeth into later Tuesday, as despite Alcoa kicking-off the second-quarter reporting season last week, the more influential companies start to report this week. Following Citi's forecast-beating numbers on Monday, the market has raised the bar of expectations for the results Tuesday of fellow bankers JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Technology bellwether Yahoo! and pharmaceutical group Johnson & Johnson are also due to report.
In the UK corporate calendar Tuesday, trading updates are out from Bwin.party Digital Entertainment, Carrs Milling Industries, Dairy Crest Group, ITE Group, and Michael Page International.
By Jon Darby; jondarby@alliancenews.com; @jondarby100
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