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By James Pomfret
HONG KONG, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Hong Kong is poised for ashowdown with China when the Chinese parliament meets later onSunday, with the largely rubber-stamp body likely to snuff outhopes for a democratic breakthrough in the regional financialhub at elections due in 2017.
Political reform has been a constant source of friction between Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement and the mainlandsince the former British colony was handed back to CommunistParty rulers in 1997.
On the surface, the National People's Congress will likelymake a landmark ruling by endorsing the framework for the firstdirect vote by a Chinese city to choose its leader. Beijing isalready hailing it as a milestone in democratic reform.
However, Beijing will tightly curb nominations for the 2017leadership poll to filter out any candidates it deemsunacceptable, said a person with knowledge of the electoralframework. Only two or three "patriotic" candidates will beallowed on the ballot and open nominations will be ruled out.Instead, candidates must be backed by at least 50 percent of a1,200-person "nominating committee".
That committee is meant to be "broadly representative" ofHong Kong interests, but will be similar in composition to anexisting election committee stacked with pro-Beijing loyalists.
It's a formula that will rile Hong Kong's pro-democracyactivists, who plan to blockade the city's Central businessdistrict in the coming weeks.
On Saturday, Hong Kong's public broadcaster RTHK said 5,000police will be deployed for the "Occupy Central" protest,heightening the sense of unease. The city's 28,000-strong policeforce is already on high alert.
An initial protest planned for Sunday evening will be thestart of what activists and lawmakers have described as a"full-scale, wave after wave" civil disobedience campaign.
Hong Kong's democracy advocates remain deeply distrustful ofBeijing despite assurances from the mainland.
"Even if we accept a fake democracy model, there's noassurance at all, that for the next vote, there'll be realdemocracy," said Lee Cheuk-yan, a pro-democracy lawmaker.
Wang Zhenmin, a prominent legal scholar and Chinesegovernment adviser who was flown to Hong Kong by the ChineseMinistry of Foreign Affairs to talk about the 2017 election,said it is time for "practical and realistic steps".
"Less perfect universal suffrage is better than no universalsuffrage. Leave some room for future growth," he said.
WON'T BACK DOWN
The proposed electoral framework will still have to beendorsed by two-thirds of Hong Kong's 70-seat legislature. Withpro-democracy lawmakers holding more than a third of the seats,the proposal will likely be shelved. "We will not accept such amodel of fake democracy, and we will vote it down," Lee said.
Senior Chinese officials have repeatedly warned activists against their "illegal" protests and say they won't back down.
Some key members of the pro-democracy movement, includingmedia magnate Jimmy Lai, have also come under pressure in therun-up to the Chinese parliamentary decision.
On Friday, China also repeated its warning against foreigninterference, saying it will not tolerate the use of Hong Kong"as a bridgehead to subvert and infiltrate the mainland".
The Occupy Central movement has not yet won broad supportamong Hong Kong's middle class, who are concerned aboutantagonising China and disruptions to business, but strongmeasures by China or the Hong Kong police could change that.
"If police use tear gas or water cannon ... this (use of)disproportionate force on protesters will generate more supportfor our civil disobedience campaign," said Benny Tai, a lawprofessor and one of Occupy Central's main leaders.
Tai and several other Occupy Central organisers, fearful ofarrest, declined to be specific about the timing of their plansbut said they also won't back down. Other action could include aboycott of university classes, wildcat street protests, strikesand a mass refusal to pay taxes.
Major companies and banks in Central, including HSBC, have held drills and have contingency plans for apossible shutdown in coming weeks or months. Ratings agenciesand banks have also noted the possibility of China tensionsaffecting the city's longer term economic outlook.
Also on Sunday, Fernando Chui is widely expected to be"re-elected" as chief executive of nearby Macau, the tiny butwealthy former Portuguese-run enclave, after the pro-Chinagovernment stifled an unofficial referendum on democracy.
Chui is the only candidate in the election by a select panelof 400 largely pro-China loyalists. Macau, acasino hub, was returned to China in 1999. (Editing by Paul Tait and Ian Geoghegan)
