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LIVE MARKETS-Stocks: Who will party on Brexit Friday?

Tue, 28th Jan 2020 13:41

* European shares up after big pullback on virus scare
* STOXX 600 edges 0.3% higher, FTSE 100 up 0.4%
* Wall Street set to recover

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Thyagaraju Adinarayan. Reach him on Messenger to share
your thoughts on market moves: thyagaraju.adinarayan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

STOCKS: WHO WILL PARTY ON BREXIT FRIDAY? (1341 GMT)
Fears of the coronavirus' impact on the global economy if it spreads further across the
globe have kept minds away from the single event that monopolised thoughts for almost four
years: Brexit.
Yet, let's forget it not that the UK is set to leave the European Union on Friday and some
investors are chasing opportunities to benefit from it.
Joe Healey and Tom Rosser, investment research analysts at The Share Centre, say the end of
the running uncertainty theme, which cost billions to the UK shares, should restore some degree
of confidence.
Here's a list of sectors expected to benefit the most from Brexit, The Share Centre's
courtesy:
1. Consumer discretionary, as it is a space that tends to be sensitive to economic cycles
2. Interest rates and inflation at stubbornly low levels can help consumer spending and
companies
like Persimmon could benefit from it
3. Information technology companies, including Sage and FDM Group, could see
some
gains given the various growth opportunities available in the sector
4. Healthcare/consumer staples, like Unilever and GlaxoSmithKline, for
their
defensive qualities and late-market cycle characteristics

(Joice Alves)
*****


AUTOS: "NO REASON TO GET BULLISH" (1204 GMT)
If you ever though about buying into European autos lured by their cheapness, here's
a UBS note that could change your mind.
"There is no reason to get bullish on the sector for 2020," write analysts at Swiss bank,
saying CO2 will cause the next headache for the industry, and singling out 3 main negatives.
1. Global auto sales and production look flattish at best
2. The big CO2 headwind for the OEMs is under-estimated by consensus
3. OEMs still have a cost issue (high investments & margin pressure from CO2 compliance)
that will
also negatively affect supplier earnings in 2020

That said (and not to mention the risk that Trump makes EU cars his next trade war target
), UBS believes cost cutting alone is unlikely to offset these negatives and
anticipates consensus downgrades further down the road.
Analysts have been cutting their earnings estimates for 20 months in a row. The sector is
the worst perfomer in Europe YTD and has lost 17% in 2019.

(Danilo Masoni)
*****


HISTORY LESSONS: CRISES CAN BE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES (0926 GMT)
Stocks may be in a precarious state today and more downside looks still likely, but the idea
that this new China virus crisis could turn out to be a buying opportunity is bouncing around in
more than one broker note.
Only yesterday when the Coronavirus scare was wiping $840 billion from global equity
markets, Exane suggested it could be a good time to buy into luxury stocks, for example.

Today Deutsche Bank says something similar on airlines.
"Near term the market will understandably remain concerned about what impact the coronavirus
will have on passenger numbers and its ability to distort global travel patterns as the virus
spreads beyond China," they say.
"However, in the medium term, history tells us that there is scope for relatively quick
share price recovery back to pre-crisis levels for the European network airlines," they add.
During the cases of Ebola and H1N1, the network carriers recovered back to pre-crisis levels
over an 18-21 day period after trough levels, they noted.
Crucially, investors will now need to spot when Peak Coronavirus happens and that's all but
easy.

(Danilo Masoni)
****



LAST MEOW?
It took just a little more than an hour for the technical rebound to morph into a dead cat
bounce with the STOXX 600 turning flat.
There was very little conviction this morning that European bourses would be able to stay in
positive territory given the gloom over global markets.
"Arguably somewhat arbitrarily, especially given the Asian losses overnight, the European
markets tried to rebound at the start of the session", wrote Connor Campbell at Spreadex.
As this blog post was being written, the STOXX 600 is now just slightly back in the black,
but again, the trend seems very fragile.
Here's the session so far:

(Julien Ponthus)
*****



CORONAVIRUS: $834 BILLION WIPED OUT IN ONE DAY! (0903 GMT)
As the death toll from Coronavirus surges to 106, here's a chart showing the damage to
global stock markets yesterday:

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****



OPENING SNAPSHOT: A DEAD CAT BOUNCE? (0840 GMT)
European stocks opened slightly higher after yesterday's sell-off that saw about $200
billion wiped off companies' market value as anxious investors struggle to quantify the economic
damage from China's fast-spreading deadly virus.
There's little conviction though on the market and this feels very much like a technical
rebound or a dead cat bounce.
Anyhow, among today's fallers, SAP is sliding 1.5% after analysts point to slowing
cloud revenue growth and Spain's Bankia is down 2% after its surprise Q4 loss,
according to a trader.
Edenred (+5%) is the top gainer on the STOXX 600 after broker Oddo
upgraded it to "buy". Swedbank is rallying 4% on Q4 profit beat.
Here's your opening snapshot:

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****


ON OUR RADAR: SAP, TULLOW, LUXURY STOCKS (0752 GMT)
Stock futures point to tentative gains with bourses attempting to bounce back from Monday's
swoon as investors reassess concerns over the economic damage from the deadly China virus.
With the death toll from Coronavirus crossing 100, focus will still remain in key
China-exposed stocks in the luxury goods and mining sectors.
Luxury stocks Swatch and Richemont could see some relief after December
Swiss watch exports data showed 5.8% year-on-year growth.
Apple component suppliers STMicro, Dialog, AMS, among others in
the spotlight after a Nikkei report that Coronavirus outbreak may disrupt iPhone production ramp
up plans.
In the UK, Tullow Oil is seen up 3% to 5% after the company's top shareholder raises
stake to 9.7% from 7.1%.
In earnings, SAP's shares are seen falling 2%-3% in early trade after the German
software provider's in-line fail to impress investors. Philips is seen down 3% by
traders after Dutch health tech company reported Q4 comparable sales below estimates.
Other movers: Prysmian seen down as regulator Ofgem to open investigation into
Western Link cable; Airbus seen up 1% agrees to settle corruption probes; SSAB
seen down 3% after Q4 earnins miss

Headlines to digest:
SAP's new leadership duo delivers in-line results, lifts guidance
Airbus agrees to settle corruption probes with France, Britain, U.S.
Philips to sell domestic appliances business
Renault board meeting Tuesday to seal De Meo's CEO nomination -report

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****

MORNING CALL: BOUNCE OFF MONDAY'S SWOON (0634 GMT)
European stocks are seen attempting a slight bounce back after yesterday's sharp sell-off as
investors continue to assess the extent of the economic damage stemming from the fast-spreading
deadly China virus.
Financial spreadbetters IG expect London's FTSE to open flat at 7,412, Frankfurt's DAX to
open 27 points higher at 13,204 and Paris' CAC to open 12 points higher at 5,836.
"With coronavirus worries on the rise, the market continues to struggle with the unenviable
task of factoring in absolute terms its implied economic devastation," says Stephen Innes, chief
market strategist at AxiCorp.
"Given that China has rapidly increased its role in the global supply chains, the market
continues to price in the worst case, negative growth shock scenarios."
Meanwhile, it's a busy earnings day in Europe with SAP, LVMH, Swedbank
, among others reporting results today.

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****






(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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