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* Money may be used to shore up dividend -analysts
* Cash return was planned after Novartis asset swap deal
* GSK to showcase reshaped business at May 6 investor day
By Ben Hirschler
LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - GlaxoSmithKline may ditcha plan to return 4 billion pounds ($6.1 billion) to investors,some analysts believe, as the drugmaker prepares to set out itsvision for the reshaped group and a new chairman takes the helm.
Instead, Britain's biggest drugmaker could use cash flowingin from its far-reaching asset swap deal with Novartis to support its dividend, according to analysts at Goldman Sachsand Berenberg Bank.
GSK said last year it intended to return 4 billion pounds toshareholders in 2015 through a so-called B share scheme,following its $20 billion-plus transaction with Novartis, whichwas finalised two months ago.
But with the drugmaker's dividend under pressure followingseveral years of stagnant growth, some believe it might makemore sense to cancel the programme.
"Momentum behind this capital return seems to have stalled,"Berenberg analyst Alistair Campbell said in a note on Friday."With the dividend commitment under pressure, we think there isnow a credible possibility the company will cancel the capitalreturn in favour of supporting the dividend."
Scrapping the cash return could cut earnings per share (EPS)forecasts by 3-4 percent. But this would be offset by renewedconfidence in the dividend, which offers a fat yield of 5percent.
While the company has promised that this year's dividendwill be held at 2014's level of 80 pence a share, there areconcerns about the outlook for 2016.
"Importantly, in the context of dividend yield, we believethat if GSK were to sacrifice the B share scheme, greatercertainty on the dividend in 2016 and beyond might be wellreceived by investors," Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.
A GSK spokesman said it was company policy never to commenton market speculation.
The debate comes as Chief Executive Andrew Witty prepares todetail prospects for the new-look GSK at an investor day on May6, when it will also announce first-quarter results. Thecompany's annual meeting a day later will see new chairmanPhilip Hampton take over.
GSK has sold its cancer drugs portfolio to Novartis, whileat the same time boosting its consumer health business through ajoint venture with the Swiss company and buying Novartis'svaccines.
This reduces GSK's reliance on risky drug development andincreases its exposure to more stable consumer and vaccinesoperations, both of which have long-lasting products but, in thecase of consumer health, lower margins.
($1 = 0.6516 pounds) (Editing by Catherine Evans)
