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Pin to quick picksGulf Keystone Petroleum Share News (GKP)

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Shrinking oil reserves crimp Iraqi Kurdistan's allure

Thu, 10th Mar 2016 12:13

* Genel, Afren slash reserves estimates in key fields

* Wells hit water, revealing complex rock geology

* Kurdistan region already facing political, securityturmoil

By Ron Bousso

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - A string of downgrades to IraqiKurdistan's oil reserves is a fresh blow to the autonomousregion's fledgling oil industry already crippled by conflict,political strife and low crude prices.

The revisions - resulting from a closer inspection ofoilfields after drillers hit more water than expected - take theshine off one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, whichhad drawn investors such as Exxon Mobil.

A further loss of faith in the region's oil bonanza alsopressures the debt-ridden Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG),which has struggled to ramp up production and exports due topipeline outages and conflict with Islamic State militants.

"The recent reserve downgrades are another blow to optimismabout Kurdish oil production," said Richard Mallinson,geopolitical analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects.

"While there are substantial amounts of oil in thisunderexplored province, companies are finding it is not as easyto find or produce in the quantities initially expected."

Among the handful of producers still operating in theregion, three have in recent months reviewed their estimates ofproven oil reserves or reduced output due to geologicalproblems.

Several fields in different areas have, nevertheless, beenunaffected by the revisions. For example, Shaikan, operated byGulf Keystone in the north of the region, saw itsreserves upgraded last year to 639 million barrels (mmbbls).

The region still boasts one of the world's lowest productioncosts, at around $20 a barrel.

Genel Energy lost more than a third of its marketvalue last month after the London-listed company halved thereserves estimate for Kurdistan's largest operational field, TaqTaq, to 356 mmbbls and wrote down its value by $1billion.

The revision means more than half of the80,000-barrels-per-day field's reserves have been produced.Genel also operates a second field, Tawke, whose reserves werelittle changed at 631 mmbbls.

Water levels in the six-year-old Taq Taq started risingrapidly in the second half of last year, prompting a study byconsultancy McDaniel & Associates that revealed the porosity ofthe rock - the ability to access oil - was overstated, leadingto the revision, Genel said.

Tony Hayward, Genel's chief executive and a former boss ofBP, said in an analyst call that the downgrade was"clearly very disappointing for ourselves and the KurdistanRegional Government".

MORE BAD NEWS

The downgrade is a blow to Genel's and other producers'hopes for the region.

"If you take a long-term view, you can look through politicsand geopolitical risks," BMO Capital Markets analyst BrendanWarn said.

"But if you haven't got good geology and the oil is not soeasily produced, you are much less attractive and no longer amajor's acquisition story."

The relatively low cost of producing oil in the region andGenel's plans to unlock gas reserves there still made the firm acompelling investment, Genel said.

For the KRG, whose revenue depends on oil, the revisions aremore bad news. The region is struggling to pay field operatorsdue to a dispute over oil revenues with the central governmentin Baghdad and the need to fund its fight against Islamic State.

The KRG started repaying oil companies earlier this year butstill owes them billions of dollars.

Before Genel, Afren Plc wiped the entire proven andprobable reserves of 190 mmbbls from its Barda Rash field inwestern Kurdistan after also hitting more water than expected inwells.

Oryx Petroleum shut two wells in the Demir Daghfield after hitting water, raising suspicions of similargeological problems elsewhere. It also revised lower its provenreserves in the Hawler licence area by 21 percent to 215 mmbbls.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company afterExxon Mobil, relinquished at the end of 2015 its interest in theRovi block north of Erbil but continues to test wells in theSarta area. (Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by Dale Hudson)

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21 Jun 2024 09:15

Gulf Keystone Petroleum hails robust Shaikan sales to Kurdistan market

(Alliance News) - Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd on Friday said it would consider further returns to shareholders as it highlighted higher average sales in the year to date.

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21 Jun 2024 07:52

Gulf Keystone returns a further $15m to shareholders

(Sharecast News) - Kurdistan-focused oil producer Gulf Keystone saw shares jump on Friday after announcing it would return a further $15m to shareholders by way of an interim dividend following a solid performance in its first half, just one month after announcing a $10m share buyback programme.

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13 May 2024 13:51

Gulf Keystone shares up on operational success and new buyback

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13 May 2024 07:45

Gulf Keystone launches $10m share buyback amid strong operations

(Sharecast News) - Kurdistan-focussed energy company Gulf Keystone updated the market on its operations on Monday, initiating a $10m share buyback programme aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

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21 Mar 2024 19:05

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21 Mar 2024 10:10

Gulf Keystone swings to loss in 2023

(Sharecast News) - Kurdistan-focused oil group Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) swung to a small loss in 2023 as the suspension of exports and continued delays to payments from the regional government had a material impact on its financial performance.

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28 Feb 2024 14:28

IN BRIEF: Gulf Keystone notes sales volume up on higher market demand

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd - oil and gas exploration company, which operates the Shaikan field, one of the largest developments in the Kurdistan region of Iraq - Says local sales volumes from the Shaikan field rebounded in recent weeks amid higher market demand for some refined products. Says gross sales from February 1 to February 26 averaged about 38,400 barrels of oil per day, bringing gross average sales in 2024 so far to 29,600 bopd. For 2022, it had reported a gross average output of 44,202 bopd. Further, notes easing of seasonal logistic challenges and a realised price of around USD25 per barrel. "While we expect demand in 2024 to remain variable, we see strong local market demand as we enter March and are looking to increase sales above current levels," the company says.

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5 Feb 2024 13:35

Gulf Keystone says Weatherdon retiring in June after four years as CFO

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Gulf Keystone loses annual revenue, says Kurdistan owes USD151 million

(Alliance News) - Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd on Wednesday said revenue receipts plummeted in its latest "challenging year", although it is "actively working" to boost volumes.

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Gulf Keystone production plunges on Kurdistan export suspensions

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Gulf Keystone continues "strict cost control" as sales fluctuate

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