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* Says 'conservative' guidance from May still stands
* Says less exposure to UK than some rivals
* Airline to cut 2 million seats from London routes
* 'Significant downside risks' later in year (Adds details of plans to move capacity from UK, plans toreturn cash to shareholders)
By Conor Humphries
DUBLIN, July 25 (Reuters) - Ryanair expects to postrecord profits this year despite Britain's vote to leave theEuropean Union, but plans to cut millions of seats from Londonroutes and shift them to more lucrative EU bases, the low-costgiant said on Monday.
Rival easyJet PLC last week said it was unable togive an earnings forecast in the aftermath of Brexit, whileGermany's Lufthansa warned on profit.
But while Ryanair said it faces a cocktail of risks fromBrexit, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said he "did not see theevidence to justify a cut" to a forecast for full-year profitsof between 1.375 billion euros ($1.5 billion) and 1.425 billioneuros, an increase of 13 percent.
"I don't think any other airline in Europe will bedelivering or forecasting that kind of profit growth," O'Learysaid.
"But all of the clouds on the horizon suggest there aresignificant risks to the downside in the second half of theyear," he said referring to the company's financial year to theend of March.
O'Leary, one of the most prominent business campaigners forBritain to stay in the EU, referred to the 17 million voters whobacked "Brexit" in the June 23 referendum as "idiots".
Ryanair said it was protected from the outcome byconservative initial guidance, lower dependence on UK revenuesand the ability to shift capacity away from Britain to anextensive European network.
Even in the worst-case scenario where London fails to secureaccess to the EU single market and Open Skies travel area in itsnegotiations to leave the bloc, the risks to Ryanair would be"not material and will be manageable," O'Leary said.
If it hits its profit targets, Ryanair plans to returnaround 1 billion euros to shareholders through a share buybackand possibly through a special dividend in 2017, he said.
Its shares were up 5.6 percent at 11.51 euros at 1402 GMT,up from a low of 10.46 euros after the June 23 vote.
CUTTING UK CAPACITY
To minimise further impact, Ryanair will start to trimcapacity from UK airports this winter, cutting 600,000 seatsfrom a planned 9 million at Stansted Airport this winter,although it will not close any routes.
Next year Ryanair will fly around 2 million fewer seats froma total planned 23 million from Britain and most of the 50planes due for delivery next year will be allocated tonon-British routes.
"We will pivot our growth away from UK airports and focusmore on growing at our EU airports over the next two years,"O'Leary said.
Eastern European-focused budget airline Wizz Air last weekalso reiterated its pre-Brexit profit forecast after announcinga similar strategy to shift significant capacity away from theUK market.
O'Leary said part of the reason Ryanair is not cutting itsprofit forecast is that it was more cautious in its initialguidance than its rivals and had Britain voted to remain in theEU, the company might now have been raising its forecast.
"I think pricing would have lifted if the 17 million idiotsin the UK had voted to stay in the European Union."
LOWER FARES
O'Leary said Ryanair "responded immediately post-Brexit withlower fares," which will be down 8 percent in the six months tothe end of September compared with an earlier forecast for afall of between 5 and 7 percent.
Fares were 10 percent lower in the three months to the endof June compared to a fall of 8 percent in revenue per passengerreported by easyJet.
But the lower fares will allow the airline to increasepassenger numbers to 117 million from an earlier forecast of 116million.
Ryanair's policy is to maintain passenger numbers whateverthe fare and then earn money on extras like fees for choosingseats and on-board refreshments.
Ryanair said it had already sold around 75 percent of itstickets for the three months to the end of September, comparedto a rate of 65 percent reported by easyJet, reducing itsexposure to a fall in the value of sterling after the vote.
Ryanair is also less dependent on Britain, which representsaround a quarter of its revenue, compared to around half foreasyJet.
($1 = 0.9115 euros) (Reporting by Conor Humphries; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell andAdrian Croft)
